Microsoft earnings could reach $20 a share or more within five years, according to Morgan Stanley. That’s why the stock is “still a strong buy,” the bank said.
The stock is a good bet for investors looking for assets with strong growth drivers, solid pricing power, and earnings growth that can outpace inflation, analyst Keith Weiss said in a research note Tuesday.
“Bottom line, Microsoft positions well against multiple secular growth trends,” he said.
Weiss foresees Microsoft (ticker: MSFT) sustaining a 15% revenue compound annual growth rate through calendar year 2026, driven by two broad commercial growth opportunities. The first is Microsoft’s base of more than 400 million information workers that are using the Office suite, from Microsoft Teams to Defender endpoint security. He believes the total commercial Office revenue base could reach more than $60 billion in 2026.
The second opportunity is to leverage the company’s cloud computing and data managing platforms for broader enterprise solutions, he said.
Weiss estimated that around $120 billion, or roughly two-thirds of the $190 billion increase in overall revenue up to 2026, could come from Azure, Microsoft’s cloud computing service. Microsoft reported 46% growth for Azure in the December quarter, and projected even faster growth in the March quarter.
Dynamics 365 could be one of the fastest growing businesses within Microsoft within the next five years, growing at about 23% CAGR. The enterprise software has been scaling faster than competitors Workday and ServiceNow at a similar scale.
Along with expanding gross margins, the resulting growth yields around $20 in earnings per share by 2026, and looks attractive against the current price to earnings multiple, Weiss said.
The analyst maintained an Overweight rating on the stock and a $372 price target.
Shares of Microsoft rose 1.2% to $304.56 on Tuesday.
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