1.2025 Presents a "Macro Risk Sandwich"
Rather than guessing which one it will be, we can just keep tabs on industrial metals as they will be the first to know...
Breakout = resurgence.
Breakdown = recession.
The battle lines are drawn:
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This chart also puts the “macro-risk-sandwich” of recession vs resurgence on display; i.e. the strength and tight capacity in labor markets [blue line] vs excess capacity and weakness in industry [black line]
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New higher plateau for rates?
For a market hooked on rate cuts, 2025 could present a wake-up call; we may need to be prepared for pauses and “unpivots” instead of just consensus cuts...
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