A big part of the US vs global equity dominance has been the rise and rise of US Tech Stocks. We see similar types of dynamics as discussed above playing out in this chart too. Trend persistence, cycles, extremes, and trend-ends + cycle-turns.The shock rise in US (geo)political risk comes at a time where US tech stocks reached extremes in valuations and concentration (e.g. record high market cap weights), and an extreme surge in relative performance by US tech vs non-tech and global tech; all of which now appear to be at a trend exhaustion pointā¦ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:š¦ Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading lim
Callum_Thomas
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Global Macro & Asset Allocation Research
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Daily Charts - Non-recessionary bears tend to be short and small
1.Non-recessionary bears tend to be short and small š§ (problem is, it looks like recession is highly likely this year... risk manage accordingly!) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Want gold? Work Longer.The hours of work required for the average worker in the USA to buy an ounce of gold has broken out to a new all-time high.Who's the winner/loser here? $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ Image3.Trump is right.The Fed got it Wrong bigly.They hiked way too Late, missed the window to cut, and now might even have to hike rates... š³(structural + cyclical uplift in chaos)ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:š¦ Open a CBA today an
Daily Charts - The worst chart you will see this year
1.This may be the worst chart you will see this year...Heading into 2025 US Assets were trading at record high expensive levels -- priced for perfection but now plunged into imperfection.If 2009 was the best for investors, 2025 is the worst. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Image2."The Great Restructuring" ? š¤ (maybe not so great for investors, but certainly things are shifting and changing and in a bigger and faster way than most can get their heads around)Image3.All That Glitters...While gold is pushing o
Daily Charts - The worst chart you will see this year
Daily Charts - SPX Death Cross?
1.Death Cross? š¤"36 of the 49 instances saw the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ realize *gains* while the Death Cross was in effect. The problem is the losing trades were very large. And even most of the winners saw a sizable round-trip lower before they were able to carve out some gains" (Rob Hanna of Quantifiable Edges)Basically: donāt rely on this indicator, but definitely raise your focus on risk management and other factors when itās active.Image2.While bearishness abounds, and there are very real downside risks, it's important not to lose sight of the opposite..."What's the best that could happen?"ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:š¦ Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade
Daily Charts - SPX Death Cross?
US Tech Stock Leadership
US Tech Stock Leadership
Daily Charts - why are US stocks down?
1.Tired: "why are US stocks down?"Wired: "why aren't US stocks down more?"From a Governance standpoint the USA is acting and talking like an Emerging Market.Should US stocks really be trading at a Premium vs rest of world, or more in line with EM? (i.e. ~36x or ~16x) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Image2.Global Equities "Relative Value Trinity"...something for those focused on the next 3-5 years and beyond (vs the next 3-5 days or hours for that matter!)Image3.Gold Miners are breaking out!And yet... inves
Daily Charts - why are US stocks down?
Daily Charts - Gold vs Silver ETF assets
1.Gold vs Silver ETF assetsSilver being left behind (...for now?)With retail finally starting to wake-up to gold, it makes you wonder when silver will start to join the party. $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ $Silver - main 2505(SImain)$ Image2.This chart shows foreign holdings of US equities vs their total holdings of US financial assets; you can see just how much foreign investors have been crowding into US stocks ā just compare and contrast the peak of the dot com bubble vs the depths of the financial crisis. And the reality is foreign flows have been a critical part of the story above; driving things higher on the way up. $S&P 500(.SPX)$
Daily Charts - Gold vs Silver ETF assets
Daily Charts - Chinese retail investors are chasing gains in Gold
1.Chinese retail investors are chasing gains in Gold $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ Image2."Cutting your nose off to spite your trading partners" China vs USAStockmarket edition...Dragon's jaws set to close?Image3.Global Equities: best place to be in the coming years?= Literally Anywhere other than the USA.Developed Markets ex-USEmerging MarketsFrontier MarketsAll boast higher expected returns...ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:š¦ Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more hereļ¼Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free trading.š°J
Daily Charts - Chinese retail investors are chasing gains in Gold
Trade Fight = Capital Flight
I thought it worth highlighting a couple of additional charts Iāve come across that illustrate how this weekās chart may play out.The first chart shows foreign holdings of US equities vs their total holdings of US financial assets; you can see just how much foreign investors have been crowding into US stocks ā just compare and contrast the peak of the dot com bubble vs the depths of the financial crisis. And the reality is foreign flows have been a critical part of the story above; driving things higher on the way up.But as alluded to, the many minds of markets are beginning to change; global investors are reporting a record high intention to underweight US equities. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF T
Trade Fight = Capital Flight
Chart of the Week - The Worst Chart
Late last year US asset valuations reached a major milestone 16-years in the making.After a golden decade for returns from the depths of 2009, the average valuation score for US stocks, corporate credit (spreads), US Dollar (DXY), and real estate āreached a record high expensive level.Even the casual observer will notice something immediately from this chart.Investors had a good-time-for-a-long-time buying when this indicator reached low levels, and had a bad time when buying at high levels.Basically we went from one of the best buying opportunities in history back in 2009, to one of the worst around the turn of the year.They say donāt bet against America, but I would say thatās more of a statement about the long-term, as there has been plenty of times where from a cyclical standpoint it m
Chart of the Week - The Worst Chart
Daily Charts - Great Rotation = Out of Treasuries, into Gold
1.Great Rotation = Out of Treasuries, into Gold $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ The PBOC is busily buying up gold.Why?A: An increasingly hostile USA.If you're the PBOC you *should* be rotating your FX reserves out of treasuries and into gold... Just makes rational sense.Image2.Forget measures like Volatility or the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ , the real measure of Risk for investors is this.Even though stocks go up over the long-run, they can take large and extended forays to the downside.(...aka what the finfluencers don't tell you about index investing!)Image3.Chinese Tech Stocks-still cheap vs history--a little cheaper now-not as cheap as non-techImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:š¦
Daily Charts - Great Rotation = Out of Treasuries, into Gold
Daily Charts - Perfect storm brewing
1.In case there was any doubt, the chart isn't just stating preferences, there is a large scale reassessment of the USA as an investment destination that was unthinkable in the past.Perfect storm brewing...Image2.Gold $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ is the Most Crowded tradewith the caveat being that the answer to this question is often just "the thing that I already sold/don't own, that went up a whole lot more than I thought it would or should"Image3.Retail starting to get on board with gold...(but still very early)Image4.Just the Chinese Gold price, up nearly 4x off the 2015/16 lows šImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:š¦ Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK
Daily Charts - Perfect storm brewing
Daily Charts - Global Equities: best place to be in the coming years?
1.Global Equities: best place to be in the coming years?= Literally Anywhere other than the USA.Developed Markets ex-USEmerging MarketsFrontier MarketsAll boast higher expected returns...Image2.Reminder: there will always be a better investment...(and p.s. it works on the way down too)So what?1. Have a process to try find these2. Don't get too caught up in FOMO Image3.Aussie Stock/Bond Ratio-turning down-follows steep run-upSo where do you go? Stocks or bonds (and which stocks, which bonds)?ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:š¦ Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more hereļ¼Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free trading
Daily Charts - Global Equities: best place to be in the coming years?
GoldNuggets ā Allocations, China, Tech
GoldNuggets Digest: gold ETF allocations, PBOC gold buying, China gold ETF holdings, China asset returns landscape, gold vs tech stocks... $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ Gold AllocationRetail allocations to gold ETFs are starting to shift āreaching a 4-year high as inflows step up and market movements begin to drift allocations higher from near record lows. Gold miners on the other hand still see historically light allocations, with gold mining ETFs seeing ongoing *outflows*. Still looks early.China Loves Gold ā PBOCāChina reported 5 tonnes of gold purchases in Februaryā¦ China actually bought 50 tonnes of gold in February (per GS).ā This makes a lot of sense, especially with Trump tariffs and increasingly hostile treatment of China by the USA ā Ch
GoldNuggets ā Allocations, China, Tech
Daily Charts - Tech Stocks are still not cheap
1.One month on, Tech Stocks are still not cheap...Big question to ponder: is this reset in valuations a late-stage bull-market continuation reset? or a bursting of a tech echo-bubble... $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Image2.The Stockmarket goes through cycles of Boom and BustWe just had the boomNow comes the bust... $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image3.What stage?(and p.s. this is not the only cycle in play...)ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:š¦ Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as
Daily Charts - Tech Stocks are still not cheap
Daily Charts - Stocks peak *before* the economy
1.Reminder: stocks peak *before* the economy.(they also *trough* before the economy, albeit that might be more of a conversation for later...?) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Tariffs or Not, inflation looks set to resurge as the previous global monetary policy pivot plays through...But if anything tariffs could add further impetus to this either by forcing more stimulus or through cost-push inflation.Image3.Learnings and conclusions from this weekās charts:Stocks saw a strong rebound + technical wins last week.Yet a couple of technical challenges and tests remain overhead.And arguably a lot of damage has already been done.Recession risk is the key variable from here for stocks
Daily Charts - Stocks peak *before* the economy
Daily Charts - Bargain hunters should be looking for a different kind of liquidity
1.Weekend Wine-d Down...With fine wine prices down -25% off the peak, vs about -12% for stocks, maybe bargain hunters should be looking for a different kind of liquidity š
Image2.One interesting dynamic is we haven't seen a whole lot of rotation through this...Basically been a process of "sell everything"Still, it's well worth keeping an eye on some of those stretched setups like the one in this chart.Image3.Funny how things just seem to have a habit of happening when the Market Cycle is "ready" to turn...Stockmarket Cycles reflect-valuations-business cycle-financial cycles-social/political cycles-industrialization/innovation cyclesThere were multiple signs that the market cycle was near a peak late last year, and now we have things happening -- and sure enough the cycle is turning down.The
Daily Charts - Bargain hunters should be looking for a different kind of liquidity
Weekly Macro Themes - Stocks/bonds ratio turns bearish amid recession risks
This week I covered the following topics/ideas:1. Weighing Recession Risk: The US economy faces a high chance of recession this year.2. Stocks vs Bonds: The stock/bond ratio is rolling over as recession risk weighs and momentum shifts from bullish to bearish; relative value and positioning support further follow-through to the downside.3. Credit Spreads: Credit spreads are catching up (/waking up) to equity market volatility, and may well see further upside; particularly in event of recession (remain cautious on credit spreads/risk assets).4. US Dollar: Remain bearish US dollar on recession/political risk, deteriorating technicals, longer-term cycles, expensive valuations; and see credible chance of larger breakdown.5. Global vs US: Bullish global vs US equities given the prospect of a wea
Weekly Macro Themes - Stocks/bonds ratio turns bearish amid recession risks
Daily Charts - Basically been a process of "sell everything"
1.One interesting dynamic is we haven't seen a whole lot of rotation through this...Basically been a process of "sell everything"Still, it's well worth keeping an eye on some of those stretched setups like the one in this chart. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Bear Market Rallies: 1930's editionOne of the worst bear markets of history saw about half a dozen major double-digit rallies before all was said and done.Is the 90-day bounce a BMR?Image3.Updated chart-one of those classic situations where technically the market was primed and just looking for an excuse-- 5k held on the daily closing price; served well as support, 50dma breadth ticked up from oversoldBut base case = BMRS
Daily Charts - Basically been a process of "sell everything"
Daily Charts - The Stock market goes through cycles of Boom and Bust
1.The Stock market goes through cycles of Boom and BustWe just had the boomNow comes the bust... $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Here's my VIX annual chart updated with 2025 YTD stats...Interesting thing is it turned up from cycle lows last year --basically looked about due for an upturn in volatility (and downturn in markets). $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Image3.The relative performance of Gold Miners has in recent years reliably moved higher during market downturns and corrections.This instance is no exception.Gold minersā relative performance vs stocks is as much dependent on gold price strength as it is stock market weakness
Daily Charts - The Stock market goes through cycles of Boom and Bust
GoldNuggets ā Trends, Gold, Stocks
The Trend is Your FriendGold $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ paradoxically often sees bouts of weakness during crashes and crises because folk tend to sell the stronger parts of their portfolios to raise cash and/or rebalance. We have seen some of that happening, but itās also worth highlighting that although gold is down in absolute terms, its relative performance has been decentā¦Gold Gains GroundIndeed, the gold vs stocks ratio has clearly turned the corner āfinally following the lead set by the gold vs cash and gold vs treasuries ratio.If recession takes hold and the stock market stays in bear market mode, itās likely that weāll see further follow-through in the black line.Gold vs Stocks GapEven miners are starting to slowly play catch-up (howev
GoldNuggets ā Trends, Gold, Stocks
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