Jacob X
01-27

$SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF(XSD)$  

I don't think the sell-off in semiconductor names really changes the AI narrative at all.

AI training costs are falling precipitously - something like 90% a year - so it is only natural that companies can gradually produce equal or better AI models at cheaper prices.

This time, there just happens to be a Chinese team who were very clever in doing it, but it is more of a sign to come - and something to just get used to - rather than a thesis-breaker. 

Today, the market is pricing in the cost decline, but not the explosive productivity gains that we will eventually see. On other occasions in the future, the opposite will occur.

The volatility may be scary, but tech stocks are inherently volatile, and again double-digit percentage moves in both directions are likely something to embrace and just get used to.

$SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF(XSD)$  

This ETF, which is a more equally weighted semiconductor ETF including small-caps, remains in a strong positive trend. Some of these more 'niche' players at cheap valuations could be worth a look here.

Modified in.01-27
Nvidia's Moat is Gone: Avoid or Buy the Dip Under $100?
DeepSeek’s shift away from CUDA challenges Nvidia’s closed ecosystem and reliance on proprietary software. Other GPU manufacturers can now offer viable alternatives DeepSeek’s approach challenges. Nvidia's monopoly, increases hardware flexibility for developers, and creates space for competition in the GPU market. ------------- Does it mean Nvidia's moat is gone? you think DeepSeek's emergence will be a short-term or long-term bearish factor for Nvidia? What's your target price to buy the dip?
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