Understanding the Q1 Economic Snapshot Q1 2025 economic data, released on 30 April, 2025, paints a concerning picture: U.S. GDP contracted by -0.3% (against expectations of 0.2% growth), inflation metrics like Core PCE hit 3.50% (above the 3.10% forecast), and ADP employment growth for April was a weak 62K (versus 114K expected). At first glance, this suggests a slowing economy with rising inflation—a stagflationary scenario that might prompt investors to panic. However, a deeper look reveals why overreacting to these numbers could be a mistake. Q1 Was Shaped by Tariff Uncertainty, Not Reality The Q1 data (January-March 2025) reflects a period of significant uncertainty. By 31 March, businesses had no concrete details on tariffs, only speculation based on late 2024 campaign promises of bro

As of April 17, 2025, concerns about "tarifflation" and "Trumpflation" dominate economic headlines, with predictions of steep price hikes for consumer goods due to the Trump administration's sweeping tariffs—145% on $541 billion of Chinese imports, 10% on non-Chinese imports, and 20–100% on select countries. Despite these fears, retail prices have largely held steady: iPhones still start at $799, shirts average $50, and PlayStation 5s remain $499. This price stability—alongside declining inflation (Truflation at 1.4%), plunging consumer sentiment (University of Michigan Sentiment Survey at 50.8, near record lows), and sluggish retail sales growth (1.8% YoY)—suggests Trump's economic agenda may be mitigating the risks of a consumer-led recession and deflation, rather than triggering hyperin

As of March 11, 2025, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  has experienced a notable decline in its stock price, dropping from an all-time high of $153.13—reached on January 7, 2025—to $106.98.  This roughly 30% plunge has shifted investor sentiment dramatically. Early in 2025, the market reveled in Nvidia's AI-driven ascent, with analysts like Morgan Stanley setting lofty targets near $152. Now, investors are starting to show doubt and impatience, with some questioning the AI boom's sustainability or fearing competition from firms like DeepSeek.  Yet, beneath this volatility, Nvidia's fundamentals have largely strengthened or held firm, exposing a disconnect between jittery market perception and the company's robust under

Investor sentiment in early 2025 shares striking similarities to the fear-driven market of late 2018, though some key differences exist.  Both periods were marked by Federal Reserve tightening, trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and fears of slowing economic growth, creating a risk-off environment that led to sharp selloffs in tech stocks and the broader Nasdaq-100 ($Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  ). 🔴 2018: Extreme Bearishness and a Near Bear Market Investor Fear Factors in Late 2018 1. Federal Reserve Aggressiveness – The Fed raised rates four times in 2018, tightening financial conditions and causing fears of a recession. 2. U.S.-China Trade War – Tariff escalations and the Huawei CFO's arrest led to conce

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   In a peculiar twist of market psychology, the S&P 500 index sits at 6,051.97 points, just below its all-time high of 6,118.71 points (reached on January 23, 2025), while investor sentiment has plunged to its most pessimistic levels in a year. This divergence between price and sentiment often creates opportunities for astute investors. "When in doubt, zoom out": SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY) over the last 52 weeks  The Numbers Tell a Story The latest AAII Investor Sentiment Survey shows bearish sentiment at 47.3%, nearly doubling from October 2024's readings around 25%. Meanwhile, bullish sentiment has dropped from over 50% in September 2024 to just 28.4% currentl

$iShares MSCI Singapore ETF(EWS)$   In a world of elevated valuations and uncertain growth prospects, Singapore's banking sector stands out as a rare combination of growth, value, and income. Despite strong performance over the past year, several structural factors suggest there's more room to run. Here's why global investors are increasingly turning their attention to Singapore, particularly its three banking giants: DBS, OCBC, and UOB. Attractive Valuations in an Expensive World Let's start with the numbers that catch every value investor's eye. Singapore's big three banks currently trade at price-to-earnings (PE) ratios between 10-11x while offering dividend yields of 5-6%. To appreciate how attractive these valuations are, let's look at th