A quick highlight/refresher — the below table is from “How to Use Value Signals for Global Equities“. It highlights how to think in 2-dimensions when it comes to stockmarket returns and valuations.
Most commentators talk about the absolute return and risk situation (is the market overvalued vs history? is the outlook for stocks to go up or down?) — but fewer speak about relative risk and return (how does this asset/sector/stock compare to that asset/market? will this one outperform vs that one? what other information can we decipher from this relative performance trend?).
When it comes to sector analysis like what we looked at today, relative valuations and relative returns can not only highlight interesting opportunities (e.g. REITs as an alternative hedge/defensive position), but also give clues to the stage of the market cycle (e.g. think about the chart above how extreme and divergent from trend it got at the peak of the dot com bubble). REITs relative returns may be giving us important clues on the stage of the market cycle right now. So a highly relevant chart + concept for today’s market.
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