$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ 1. From Tightening to Tailwinds: the macro data pulse is looking so-far-so-good despite all the bad news and market volatility, and the key reason is all the monetary easing tailwinds from 2024/25 are having their maximum impact right now. So as far as I can tell, for now, the global economic reacceleration theme remains on-track. “the biggest story in macro of the 2020’s ech

Zooming out from the day-to-day developments, it’s useful to keep in mind the market cycle conceptual model. The reason we want to respect risk in this type of juncture is that the stockmarket is stumbling and rolling over from expensive levels — this is the zone of maximum risk. It’s entirely possible that we end up getting enough of a reset (in sentiment, valuations, positioning, and maybe even policy too) to engineer a short/sharp correction and resumption of the bull market… but given the background setup described and what we understand about market cycles, it would pay to be pragmatic about things (balancing the desire for maximum gains from participating in rebounds vs diversification and defense against the potential for further downside). For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA t

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ This week’s chart presents an unusual sentiment indicator which serves a specific purpose to a specific type of market participant. This composite indicator takes into account sentiment readings from surveys + market metrics: the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ (volatility/fear gauge) and the forward PE ratio (being ultimately a measure of investor confidence). The inputs are also smoothed so that it provides the most useful signal to longer-term active investors who are less fixated on the day-to-day news/noise. We’ve seen a significant reset in this indicator already. This says we are close to a major market bottom. However we still need to respect risk. The direction of travel (bearish

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has broken a key support, bears are in control. 2. Implied correlations + Leveraged ETF trading activity point to rising odds of a bounce. 3. Longer-term market cycle indicators highlight risk of bear market. 4. Markets may need to pivot focus from TACO to Fed Put. 5. Midterm malaise can produce magic (subsequent) returns. Overall, a common theme in this week’s session is one of “getting closer” (to a major market bottom) as short-term signals brush up against longer-term issues. A key conundrum is whether TACO is still a thing (what’s the quick fix?), or whether the market needs to pivot back to Fed Put… For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enj

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 22 March 2026 This week: technical check, inversion question, drawdowns, global tech, margin debt, valuations and positioning, earnings revisions, global macro pulse, stock return distributions, emerging markets... Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: Stocks are at a make-or-break point (major support level). Conditions are increasingly oversold. Sentiment and valuations have seen a partial reset. (albeit from an overvalued/excess-greed starting point) Pre-war, the global earnings/macro pulse was on a promising path. Overall, as noted, it’s a dangerous setup (clear technical deterioration from a starting point of overvaluation and excess-greed, with downside tail-risks for the global economy). But at the same time, if we’re going to get a reboun

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. Technically things look fairly bearish overall. 2. But recent history shows the tendency for rebounds (even during bear markets). 3. And conditions are currently looking notably oversold. 4. Yet there are some vulnerabilities being exposed in private markets. 5. There’s also still a few positive signs underneath all the pessimism. Overall, the high-level technical view looks pretty ugly. But we have a key opportunity for a rebound next week given oversold conditions, support levels, and a historical precedent for rebounds and rallies even if it turns into a more prolonged bearish episode… $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has broken a key short-term support level. This is from a starting point of stretched sentiment/valuations. (Therefore risk of further downside is elevated.) Software stocks are bouncing from cheap and oversold conditions. Energy stocks are getting a geopolitical boost with room to run. Overall, the technical picture is enough to make one pause to think. With the various parallels to 2022 it certainly heightens the risk management senses. And yet there’s still some very interesting sector setups… 1. Here we go Again with multiple parallels to 2022 (geopolitical event, commodity price spike — set against a backdrop of expensive valuations, stretched sentiment), th

This week’s COTW is… 2 Charts! First one shows Global ex-US Small Value (basically a combination of what have been the 3 most out of favor parts of global equities: global ex-US, small caps, and value stocks). The second one shows the other side of the coin — US Large Growth (what has been the hottest part of global equities). The chart on the left is looking very bullish after being messy, somewhat bearish, and certainly lagging behind for a number of years. The chart on the right is looking distinctly bearish after having been on a dream bull run since 2009. Then add in a little more context: global/small/value are ticking up from record low relative valuations vs US/large/growth — what I call the “relative value trinity“ of global equities. This is a classic change in stockmarket leader

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ dropped -0.87% on the month in February. (yet the equal-weighted version gained +3.4% in Feb) (rotation remains a key theme) Value vs growth rotation has clear fundamental support. There are still some compelling causes for optimism. Overall, the rally in cyclicals/value is helping offset tech-troubles (aka bullish rotation), and there is clear compelling macro-fundamental support to rotation (along with the cooling-off from tech/AI hype). We’re probably seeing a classic case of overinvestment in capex on the AI front, but it’s not all bad news… 1. Happy New Month!  The S&P500 closed down -0.87% for February, placing it marginally up +0.5% YTD. The equal

80% of the world is in a Bull Market. Specifically, 80% of the 70 countries we track are up at least 20% off their 52-week low (with +20% being a common benchmark/trigger for “bull market“). This is a very positive sign. The below chart shows this peculiar breadth indicator over time (the red line), and what’s interesting is a few things… First, this indicator has rarely been above 50% over the past couple decades (yet, it was steadily north of 50% during the 2000’s global equity bull market). Second, when this indicator surges like this it is typically a very good sign — for instance, see: 2003, 2009, 2020 (the start of new global equity bull markets). Third, by contrast the time to be concerned is when this indicator peaks and rolls over (no signs of that at the moment). In essence, this

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. Bullish rotation remains in play. 2. Tech stocks still look troubled. 3. AI spillovers are helping (already bullish) commodities. 4. Newspaper stocks present a case-study in disruption. 5. Commodity stocks (as a group) look good. Overall, the US tech vs non-tech and US vs global bullish rotations remain in play, this is helping make the tech troubles less of an issue at the index level. There is a risk that gives way to broader downside if tech breaks down, so it’s worth keeping close tabs on tech (among other things…) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)

With tech in trouble (+a number of macro risks lurking on the horizon), defensives are starting to look interesting… Defensives (i.e. an equal-weighted basket of: Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Staples) are turning up vs the S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ —after going through what has been a major relative bear market. But in particular, the following conditions make for a contrarian bullish (relative) setup for Defensives: Defensives’ relative value indicator reached similar levels to that seen at the peak of the dot com bubble (Defensives are extreme cheap vs the index). Investor allocations to defensives are ticking up from record lows. The market cap weight of defensives reached an all-time low late last year. The relative price (black line i

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: Tech stocks (particularly software) remain under pressure. Investor exposure to tech is at historically elevated levels. Surging tech capex is coming at the cost of buybacks. Private equity stocks are also coming under pressure. Defensive stocks meanwhile are looking up. Overall, it’s fair to say that we are at a challenging juncture in markets. Tech stocks are coming under pressure, and from a starting point of major overvaluation and historically high allocations. So it’s worth keeping a closer eye on risk management and potential upside in defensives, while staying pragmatic with the otherwise still bullish outlook for cyclicals/global/commodities… Going it alone? as outlined the other day, the US tech sector remains under pressure, and

Learnings and conclusions from this session: US tech stocks have peaked (+rolled over vs US non-tech, global tech). Sentiment is slumping from previously extreme bullish/complacent. Positioning has also peaked, early signs of rotation showing up. Valuations are ticking down from extreme expensive levels. Stretched valuations reflect strong earnings (but that’s also a risk). Overall, tech stocks have peaked for now. The problem is they’re coming from a starting point of overvalued and overhyped. The benign/bullish outcome would be a plateau in tech and bullish rotation (into traditional cyclicals, global), while the bearish outcome would be outright downside (and rotation into defensives). This report looks at the evidence so far and weighs the next steps… 1. Tech Top (Absolute Terms): 

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: Stocks closed up in January (equal-weight beat cap-weight). A positive January is a positive sign for the rest of the year. Seeing apparent rotation out of crypto into precious metals. Also seeing rotation from growth/tech to value/cyclicals. Signs are it’s a case of “bullish rotation” (broadening bull). Overall, we’ve managed to get off to a decent start to the year with the gains and bullish rotations of January. There are a few risk spots to keep tabs on (price action in crypto, tech/growth), but the relative strength in some of the more cyclical parts of the market raise the prospect of a bullish broadening… Happy New Month! the (market cap weighted) S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed up +

Is this the most hated asset class? The composite positioning indicator below seems to suggests so. Everyone hates bonds right now. And fair enough — there are several obvious reasons to hate them. Returns have been terrible, inflation risk is lurking around the corner, fiscal concerns are running high, and political/governance risk for the US is looking and feeling more like what you’d expect in emerging markets. But all of this is obvious and well known, which means it’s time to think. As the old Mark Twain quote goes, "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." When you take an objective and quantitative look at treasuries (I am referring to longer-term) a couple of things stand out. Valuations are cheap. Sentiment/allocations/positioning a

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. Bears have the statistical edge in mid-term election years. 2. The global equity bull market is going strong (+getting stronger). 3. Implied correlations are low (a risk signal, similar to dot-com). 4. High valuations are supported by high expectations on profitability. 5. Energy sector equities are undervalued, underallocated, underestimated. Overall, there’s a fair amount of risk signals waving (e.g. seasonal headwinds, correlations, surging sentiment, lofty expectations), but likewise strong momentum, bullish rotation, and compelling fundamental narratives carrying things along. And amongst all this there’s some very interesting opportunities developing… For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading lim