TopdownCharts
TopdownCharts
Topdown Charts is a chart-driven macro research house covering global asset allocation and economics. We primarily serve multi-asset investors and institutions.
0Follow
566Followers
0Topic
0Badge
avatarTopdownCharts
05-11 22:52

The rally has stalled at resistance

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:1. The rally has stalled at resistance.2. Seasonality is signaling imminent downside risk.3. Yet speculative risk sentiment is recovering.4. And there are many minds that could change (from bear to bull).5. Recession risk/talk is rising (and could be the key decider).Overall, a bull-bear stalemate has set in, and there are about as many things that bulls can point to that bears can also list when it comes to reasons for their views. As for where the market is sitting, it’s a window of optimism (and anxiety) for both bulls and bears with the floor and ceiling set (and a possible third option also lying in wait!) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SP
The rally has stalled at resistance
avatarTopdownCharts
05-09 23:31

GoldNuggets — Peaks & Asset Allocation

GoldNuggets Digest: ETF holdings of gold $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ , gold price valuation indicator, gold vs bonds, family office asset allocations, gold price forecasts...Retail ArrivedTurns out the Gold price peaked just as retail started piling in. ImageExtreme ExpensiveWhile there are strong monetary tailwinds behind gold and an entrenched bull trend, the expensive valuation signal in the chart below —alongside overbought technicals, consensus bullishness, and extended flows/positioning— make for an uncertain outlook, and a period of consolidation and correction is probably a healthy thing for the gold price at this point. ImageGold vs BondsGold has done an outstanding job as a bond alternative — and has not only outperformed as a diversi
GoldNuggets — Peaks & Asset Allocation
avatarTopdownCharts
05-09 23:27

Weekly Macro Themes - Remain bullish EM equities on strengthening technicals

This week I covered the following topics:1. Global Growth Pulse: Soft data slumped in April from already waning levels, but the global hard data pulse is on an improving trend (following the lead set by bullish leading indicators).2. Ups & Downs: There is almost a precise balance of downside and upside risks on the list, it serves as a good reminder about not getting too carried away on the bull or bear side.3. Commodities: Remain bullish given promising technicals (and flows/sentiment/positioning), cheap valuations, light capex, and mixed-to-positive demand outlook (with scope for upside).4. Emerging Markets: Remain bullish EM equities on strengthening technicals, reset in sentiment/flows, cheap valuations, and light allocations by investors (+turning point in relative performance).5.
Weekly Macro Themes - Remain bullish EM equities on strengthening technicals

S&P500 is still about 9% below its peak

It’s not just the unthinkable on the macro side, here’s an insight into how global equities are tracking; with a specific focus on global ex-US.While the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ remains below its 200-day moving average, 74% of the countries we track are currently trading *above* their 200dma (see breadth indicator below). And while the S&P500 is still about 9% below its peak, global ex-US equities are within inches of making a new all-time high.Part of this has to do with USD weakness (as the index below shown in US$ terms), but that’s also partly the point. The currency weakness actually reflects the relative macro predicament that the USA finds itself in vs the rest of the world. And with global stocks still trading at a massive discount vs the
S&P500 is still about 9% below its peak

Everyone is expecting recession, but what if we get the opposite?

This week’s chart comes from the latest Market Cycle Guidebook and presents a sort of “what if?“ scenario… one that is probably “unthinkable“ from the standpoint of where consensus seems to have drifted to.Basically the key premise in the chart is that there has been a clear Global pivot to monetary policy easing already — and with the usual leads/lags of policy transmission there should be a bunch of monetary tailwinds coming into play right about now.So instead of getting a recession, what if we get the opposite?(what if growth accelerates rather than stalls?)That’s not to dismiss the real adverse impacts of the tariff shock…And when it comes to the USA specifically, there are a lot of short-term pain points from policy moves this year e.g. fiscal tightening from DOGE cuts vs previous ye
Everyone is expecting recession, but what if we get the opposite?

Bond Market Seasonality

With the negative Q1 GDP print of last week and soft CPI reports, the prospect of a disinflationary recession is being raised. One school of thought is tariffs will drive inflation higher, the other school of thought is that tariffs will drive costs higher and squeeze profit margins and discretionary incomes — and end up being deflationary to demand…The possibility of a disinflationary recession would certainly be bond bullish — and as it so happens, we’re just getting into the part of the year which has historically been good for bonds (bonds have had a historical tendency for seasonal strength from May through to October).So just as the seasons are turning bad for stocks, it may now be the season for bonds.For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy pr
Bond Market Seasonality

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - The index cleared 2 key bullish milestones

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed April down just -0.76% (and -5.3% YTD).The index cleared 2 key bullish milestones late last week.Yet bears still hold hope for a failure at the 200dma or 5800.Seasonality is set to sour (see “sell in May” stats).One bull case is that we just had a late-cycle reset (like 1998).Overall, it’s fascinating to reflect on how sharp things rebounded; if you hadn’t looked a day at markets in April you might wonder what all the fuss was about. But with initial bullish milestones passed, the next pinch-point is coming into focus. With bears about to give up, lingering policy uncertainty, and a prospective macro eye-of-the-storm moment, May will be very interesting for
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - The index cleared 2 key bullish milestones

Market Cycle Guidebook - The big edge risks are recession and deflation

The monthly Market Cycle Guidebook is a key resource for investors — providing insight into the stage of the business cycle, monetary policy trends, leading indicators, earnings momentum, valuations across multiple different assets and markets, long-term return expectations, and tactical asset allocation views.Key Findings from the Latest Monthly pack:Global monetary policy settings are increasingly shifting from headwind to tailwind as inflation falls and economic cycle data remain soft.The big edge risks are recession and deflation on one edge vs reacceleration and inflation resurgence on the other edge.In practice given what has gone on in the US so far this year, it is now likely that the US economy faces a recession or at least short-sharp-slowdown.Meanwhile the rest of the world may
Market Cycle Guidebook - The big edge risks are recession and deflation

Short-term technicals look good, but resistance looms overhead

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Short-term technicals look good, but resistance looms overhead.The negative economic noise is deafening.Sentiment remains deeply pessimistic.Cash piles are building.Economic sentiment is catching down to investor sentiment.Overall, the absence of new bad news, some less bad news, and the rebound in stocks is enough to frustrate the bears and embolden the bulls. The key words of “bull traps”, “bear market rallies” and “the ey
Short-term technicals look good, but resistance looms overhead

Weekly Macro Themes - Recession is likely bullish for bonds

This week I covered the following topics:1. Treasuries: There are multiple mixed macro signals for bonds, but what we can know is they are cheap, sentiment is bearish, and while inflation risk is an issue; recession (if happens) is likely bullish for bonds.2. EM Fixed Income: Remain bullish given cheap valuations, mild reset in sentiment, bullish EMFX outlook (and weaker USD), monetary policy tailwinds (albeit mindful/vigilant on inflation resurgence risk).3. Energy Stocks: Continue to see upside risks for crude oil (and cheap energy stocks), but the risks are more 2-way now (e.g. global growth downside may swamp geopolitical risk upside).4. Gold Miners: Move tactically neutral on gold miners given the risk signals in gold (overvalued, volatility spike, sentiment/positioning peak), and tro
Weekly Macro Themes - Recession is likely bullish for bonds

Chart of the Week - US global equity leadership is at a peaking point

When you look at enough markets for long enough you come to realize a few truths or at least rules of thumb for thinking about and navigating stockmarket regimes…The trend is your friend until it bends.No trend goes on forever uninterrupted.Cycles happen for a reason, and they repeat.Extremes are a feature of trend-ends and cycle-turns.As it happens, this week’s chart provides an excellent case study on all 4 counts + provides some timely insights into what is unfolding right now.Let’s go through them…The trend is your friend: there is clear persistency in the relative performance of US vs global equities, both up and down over time (i.e. you tend to see multi-year runs that can be clearly identified as a trend).Trends do not go on forever uninterrupted: all of those trends eventually came
Chart of the Week - US global equity leadership is at a peaking point

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - The death cross is both more AND less useful than most think

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ The death cross is both more AND less useful than most think.Trend change indicators are more important if context confirms.Current context (valuations, macro) confirm caution is correct.We’ve seen heavy dip-buying behavior.There is a bull case to be made, but a lot needs to go right (/less wrong).Overall, without getting too bogged down in the death-cross-debate it
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - The death cross is both more AND less useful than most think

Stocks saw a strong rebound + technical wins

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 1. Stocks saw a strong rebound + technical wins last week.2. Yet a couple of technical challenges and tests remain overhead.3. And arguably a lot of damage has already been done.4. Recession risk is the key variable from here for stocks.5. The US (stockmarket) faces a prospective Great Restructuring.Overall, stocks have come back from the brink with tariff tinkering and worst-fears fading — this came interestingly enough rig
Stocks saw a strong rebound + technical wins

Taking stock of upside risks, short-term and further out

I had planned to put this note out earlier in the week but was too busy —and as you probably saw one of these upside risks has already in-part played out with markets responding in spectacular fashion ( $S&P 500(.SPX)$ up almost 10% today).…but rather than getting bogged down in the froth and frenzy of the daily news cycle and tail-chasing, I thought it would still be useful to take a step back and take stock of potential upside risks.I will preface this by noting that much of what I talked about in the latest Weekly ChartStorm still stands and has not been negated by the 90-day tariff pause (cyclical downside risks; previous topping signals still running their course, recession risk still high (damage is already done), valuations still elevat
Taking stock of upside risks, short-term and further out

The technical and sentiment conditions are ripe for a rebound

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Multiple indicators point to a technical trend change (bear market).Multiple short-term (sentiment/technical) indicators point to a rebound.Valuations have come down but are still far from cheap.Recession risk is rising, and the Fed may be slow to step in.Global fund flow feedback loops are reversing (out of US markets).Overall, I’d say the obvious answer is we rally next week and make new lows later. The technical and senti
The technical and sentiment conditions are ripe for a rebound

The AI Bubble is bursting

The AI Bubble is bursting 👀And yes, AI is here to stay, and yes it will have a lasting and significant impact - especially in the longer run.But history shows time and again that downturns are not kind to emerging technologies... when confidence gets rattled, funding comes into question, and focus goes hard on every cost and only immediate revenue it's the projects and investments that can't give those questions a good answer that get cut first (or at least put in the freezer)Just part of the overall unintended consequences, and also a coming full circle of some wild market movements like that in the chart below. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Advanced
The AI Bubble is bursting

Asset Class Performance in March 2025

Asset Class Performance in March 2025-A hotchpotch of gainers--frontier markets, commodities, infrastructure, international bonds-US equities meanwhile the biggest losersYTD the former leader becomes the laggard. US equities were top of the table last year, no more. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Screenshot 2025-04-02 150314.pngScreenshot 2025-04-02 145932.pngPS:The charts and tables above present market performance data for the assets we calculated capital market assumptions for. Every effort has been ma
Asset Class Performance in March 2025

Sentiment vs Valuations and Market Cycles

When it comes to the market cycle it’s easy to lose sight of concepts during chaos. Meanwhile oversimplified schematics often instill a false sense of confidence. So I thought it would be worthwhile revisiting my “nuanced version“ of the market cycle.The simple version says that you go in a nice orderly fashion from boom to bust, expensive to cheap, and all you need to do is buy low and sell high. In practice emotions, peer pressure, industry forces all conspire against us through every step of the way. That’s why you need to be data and evidence driven in forming a clear view of where you are at in the cycle and what kind of forward-looking risk vs reward setup is on the horizon.As I attempt to explain in this visual, the best time to go all-in on stocks is when the cycle is turning up fr
Sentiment vs Valuations and Market Cycles

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - The S&P500 failed to retake the 200DMA

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ failed to retake the 200-day moving average.The next big test is whether current support levels can hold.Semiconductor sales look set to slow significantly.Multiple market cycle indicators are turning down from peaks.Basically it looks like the market tides are going out.The S&P500 attempted and failed to retake the 200-day moving average (+overhead resistance around 5800). This is a very bad sign indeed — the next test will be to see if support can hold around the current levels. Breadth meanwhile also remains on a deteriorating path.Overall, as most muse on what may come in the week ahead (tariff day is coming), I’ve opted to stay focused on what’s observab
Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - The S&P500 failed to retake the 200DMA

10 Charts to Watch in 2025 [Q1 Update]

Here’s an update to the 10 Charts to Watch in 2025 as we head into quarter-end.In this article I have updated those 10 charts + provided fresh comments. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ 1. Recession or Resurgence? This remains a critical and, for now, unsolved mystery. I’d hazard that maybe the answer is both: the US economy has been hit with a wall of uncertainty
10 Charts to Watch in 2025 [Q1 Update]

Go to Tiger App to see more news

Invest in Global Markets with Tiger Brokers!
Open App