The most important day of 2025 is on March 19. JPOW will keep US interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%
But, what he says and how he says it will DETERMINE the course of history.
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Here's 5 critical things you need to know about this week $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ and FOMC:
1. Take a look at my SPY chart now. The SPY is still trading under 200SMA at $572.55. Unless we can cross above this stay above it there will be more downside to go all the way to $540 and then $520.
2. President Trump is looking to refinance US debt at a lower interest rate, the only way to get interest rates lowered is to go into an economic SLOWDOWN or recession. Inflation will also drop in this period and debt will be refinanced at lower so it will save US trillions of dollars.
3. March 18 is also a critical day this week becuase Bank of Japan will also announce interest rates and its unknown what they will do becuase the economy has slowed down while inflation is still rising. But, chances are they will hold rates the same, if they hike the SPY will crash on Wednesday morning.
4. CPI and PPI are steadily coming down with eggs already dropping quite a bit the last few weeks so this good for market so at some point JPOW will cut rates in June and July.
5. Valuations now are really cheap relatively to what they were a year ago for example $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ net income increased 75% over the past year but the PE (how much investors are willing to pay for it) has dropped from 48 to 22.
NVDA dropped is about $104 from a high of $153. Its like saying your favorite car you want to own is now onl sale for 30% off! Many investors and institutions will start buying, but also many will wait for a bigger sale.
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