Michael Esther
Michael Esther
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avatarMichael Esther
04-07 23:22

VIX can break 70 and head towards 85 to retest

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ hit 85 on March 2020 and changed the course of history forever. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ crashed 25% in 2 days.Trump tariffs are 100x worse in economic impact. VIX can break 70 and head towards 85 to retest.These companies have not reached the bottom yet: $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(
VIX can break 70 and head towards 85 to retest
avatarMichael Esther
04-06 21:58

All these companies will now be in big trouble if the FEDS don't cut rates soon

In 3 months, US government has to refinance $4 trillion or pay $10 billion in interest payments. And President Trump knows we don't have money to pay this at all.This is why the FEDS must lower interest rates – and what it means for YOU:Over the next 2 years, the U.S. government has to refinance nearly $10 TRILLION in debt.That’s like refinancing a MASSIVE mortgage – and the new "interest rate" is way higher than the old one.In 2025 alone:$6.2 trillion in debt comes due. It gets rolled over (refinanced), not paid off.Higher interest = higher paymentsWhy it matters to YOU:If rates stay high (like now at ~5.25%). The government pays hundreds of billions more just in interest That extra cost doesn’t come from thin air. It leads to higher taxes, cut social benefits, or more inflation down the
All these companies will now be in big trouble if the FEDS don't cut rates soon
avatarMichael Esther
04-06 01:55

Everyday things like iPhone become more expensive with tariff

Tariffs are a good thing if you don’t need an IPhone or buy new shoes. In fact, if you don’t eat ginger beef or Peking duck from China, tariffs won’t matter.Example 1: iPhoneLet’s say $Apple(AAPL)$ makes part of the iPhone in China. If it costs $500 to produce and bring it to the U.S.:•Without a tariff: Apple pays $500•With a 30% tariff: Apple pays $500 + $150 = $650Apple won’t want to lose profit, so they’ll raise the price for you. That same iPhone that used to cost $1,000 might now cost $1,150 or more.Example 2: ShoesImagine a pair of shoes made in China costs $50 to import.•Without a tariff: The company pays $50•With a 30% tariff: They pay $50 + $15 = $65To keep their profits, the store might raise the price from $100 to $115 or $120.Summary:W
Everyday things like iPhone become more expensive with tariff
avatarMichael Esther
04-06 01:52

Here's the bottoms for 10 tickers

JPM makes MAXIMUM money with long puts at 4500 for $S&P 500(.SPX)$ (check chart)20% from all time highs for $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is under $500. Here's the bottoms for 10 tickers 🧵 $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$
Here's the bottoms for 10 tickers

10 examples why US tariffs shield domestic industries from foreign competition

Everyone hates tariffs but President Trump likes them: 10 examples why tariffs shield domestic industries from foreign competition and encouraging consumers to buy domestically produced items:Light Trucks: Since 1964, a 25% tariff, known as the "Chicken Tax," has been imposed on imported light trucks to protect domestic automakers. ​Washing Machines: In 2018, tariffs starting at 20% were placed on imported washing machines to support U.S. manufacturers like $Whirlpool(WHR)$ . Solar Panels: Also in 2018, a 30% tariff was imposed on imported solar panels to promote domestic production. Steel Products: A 25% tariff on imported steel has been applied to support the U.S. steel industry, affecting various consumer goods made from steel. ​Aluminum Product
10 examples why US tariffs shield domestic industries from foreign competition

JPOW's Speech May Impact Market, $540 Key for 20% Correction

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ JPOW speech on economy is April 4th, 2025. His speech can help fill a massive gap on this daily chart.But, fundamentally once it breaks this level $540 then next levels on this chart is now $520 and then $500.I'll alert where I believe the exact bottom will be and it will be in April.20% correction from all time highs takes it under $500. This is where President Trump threshold for pain is. Q1 GDP is negative 🩸ImageOpen a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Other helpful links:💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to
JPOW's Speech May Impact Market, $540 Key for 20% Correction
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is trading in WAVE C here and if it breaks support at $550 it will freefall. Important dates this week:- March 31 - Quarter End and Window Dressing- April 2nd - Tesla Delivery Numbers and Tariff Day- April 4th - US Jobless RateImage

SPY hit $558 first 🎯on the breakdown under $565

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ hit $558 first 🎯on the breakdown under $565. If you took puts with us comment "puts" and if you want access to our DAILY analysis each day comment "help"These notes will help you with:✅market sentiment and context✅key levels for SPY✅what to focus on and targetsSPY key level for a solid bounce play was $558 posted for you BEFORE market even opens. Always plan your trade ahead.We have a deep understanding for technical analysis, fundamentals analysis and economic data for SPY
SPY hit $558 first 🎯on the breakdown under $565

5 most profitable SPY set-ups in the bull market

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ hit $575 that's 7% away from all time highs.The year-end target is now $675+Here's 5 most profitable set-ups in the bull market🧵 1 Double bottom- This is the simpliest set-up to take and requires only patience.- Wait for LOW OF DAY to be created - Your entry is when this LOW is tested again- Enter when you see buyers jump inImage2 Reversal of Downtrend- As soon as you see the SPY direction is down after 30 minutes- Draw the downtrend line - As soon as it breaks then this is your ENTRY- wait for buyersImage3 Pull back into support (retest)- Wait until SPY breaks out over premarket high, or 5 min high or opening range.- As soon as it comes back to retest this is your entry on 1min time frame.Image4 VWAP breakout- VWA
5 most profitable SPY set-ups in the bull market

Insiders' Purchases SPY Signal Market Bottom

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Insiders increasing their purchases signal confidence, suggesting the recent rebound may mark a bottom. This metric is set to hit its highest level since June, nearing its historical average for SPY. Obviously, insiders they dont know anything about the company. You do! You're waiting for the bottom to get in.ImageSooner you UNDERSTAND and live by this motto in trading, sooner you'll be consistent and profitableTrading is boring, you have to wait around for the set-up to form, then you wait around for the move to happen, then you wait for the next trade to happen before you take another one.
Insiders' Purchases SPY Signal Market Bottom

SPY can easily drop another 5%-10% from $565 after FOMC

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ can easily drop another 5%-10% from $565 after FOMC on March 19.Here's 4 things that will impact the course of history 🧵1. GDP is for Q1 is estimated to be NEGATIVE. I don't think SPY has properly priced this in. and JPOW will address this on Wednesday. If he says, the economy is slowing down and we are seeing deterioration, SPY wont like it all. The Q&A session at FOMC will determine if there will be BLOOD on the streets this week back down under $550.2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$
SPY can easily drop another 5%-10% from $565 after FOMC

SPY 200SMA at $572.55 is next target

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The best part about US bear market and 10% correction is riding SPY all the way back up to all time highs!The 200SMA at $572.55 is next target. Let’s see if it breaks this week for FOMC and OPEX.Expected move for SPY is 15 points in either direction so targets for this week will be towards $580 or below $550.I believe we are at A right now heading to B for the full corrective move to C.ImageThis DOT PLOT will change course of history on March 19 at FOMC and no one knows how it will play out.Here's why:✅3 rate cuts then market could see a solid up move🔳2 rate cuts similar to before market is flat❌1 rate cut then market could see this bearishImage
SPY 200SMA at $572.55 is next target

5 critical things you need to know about this week SPY and FOMC

The most important day of 2025 is on March 19. JPOW will keep US interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%But, what he says and how he says it will DETERMINE the course of history.ImageHere's 5 critical things you need to know about this week $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ and FOMC:1. Take a look at my SPY chart now. The SPY is still trading under 200SMA at $572.55. Unless we can cross above this stay above it there will be more downside to go all the way to $540 and then $520.2. President Trump is looking to refinance US debt at a lower interest rate, the only way to get interest rates lowered is to go into an economic SLOWDOWN or recession. Inflation will also drop in this period and debt will be refinanced at lower so it will save US trillions
5 critical things you need to know about this week SPY and FOMC

SPY seasonality chart for the last 20 years

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ seasonality chart for the last 20 years. March on average is a GREEN or positive month. March opened up at $596 pushed all the way back down to $565. It's red right now but there is a massive catalyst coming next week 🧵I’m not worried about cpi this month and govt funding end and bill to extend and then apr2 reverse tariff on all countries and then job report in apr will show all fed layoff. I am worried spy will tank to 530Hedgefunds are not NET LONG or NET SHORT, they are in combinations of both positions and SHORTS so they can manage the risk just in case the market goes a different way.ImageThis is March 19 FOMC and if this is a repeat of Friday presentation by JPOW then its extremely bullish.
SPY seasonality chart for the last 20 years

Understanding Expected Moves with VIX

If you're new to trading, understanding market expectations can give you an edge in setting levels for your trades. Let’s break it down using $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ and $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ with a simple rule of thumb:March 6th, 2025🔹 VIX = 25 at the close🔹 SPY = $572 at the closeHere's how we estimate the expected daily move for $S&P 500(.SPX)$ :1️⃣ Divide VIX by 16🔹 25 ÷ 16 = 1.56 (This gives us an approximate daily expected % move) traders often use this rule of thumb since VIX represents expected volatility over the next 30 days, and dividing by 16 estimates the daily expected move.2️⃣ Multiply by SPY price🔹 $572 × 1.56% = $8.923️⃣ Set Yo
Understanding Expected Moves with VIX

4 powerful SPY levels to know for tariffs and FOMC in March 2025

4 powerful $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ levels to know for tariffs and FOMC in March 2025. SPY broke below long-term trend set from Nov 2023:1. 70% chance SPY will reverse hard and fast UP when RSI is oversold. This level sits close under $570 area you can see from this chart.2. The 200SMA is at $570-$571. The last time SPY crossed above this in Nov 2023 it trended up for almost 18 months in a row. This is a massive area of support for the market to hold.3. $540 would be the absolute bottom of this down move and its unlikely we get here but that would a 10% correction on the SPY.4. $567 This is another massive demand area where buyers are looking to add to their strongest positions here. There is a 50% chance we'd get here in March but that wo
4 powerful SPY levels to know for tariffs and FOMC in March 2025

Lower Position Size to improve your entries and exits

The 1 way to drastically improve your entries and exits is to LOWER YOUR POSITION SIZE. Do not worry about the profits and loss yet as soon as you improve your entries and exits on 1-2 contracts you can increase it to 5 contracts then eventually 10. Yes, so if you have an account between $1000-$2000 for this week focus on trading with 1-2 contracts only. And then see how you do.The hard part of this BASIC excercise is to see how you control your emotions. So if you decide to take 5 contracts because you felt like it. This is like eating a donut randomly while you are dieting or going for a little smoke break just becuase you've hadnt had one for 3 days. Its the same mistake lack of discipline.
Lower Position Size to improve your entries and exits

The biggest benefits to trading XSP

The biggest benefits to trading $S&P 500 Mini-SPX(.XSP)$ 1. The ability to sell or buy options around the clock outside of normal trading hours2. The tax benefits. With $S&P 500(.SPX)$ or XSP The tax benefits could be significant. 60% of your profits are taxed as long term gains (15% or 20% depending on your income level), and the other 40% are taxed at short-term rates (same as your regular income tax. With $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , all profits will be taxed as your regular income.3. Cash settlement and no assignment risk. you don’t have to close the option if it’s in the money because they will cash settle if it same-day expiry. If you are shor
The biggest benefits to trading XSP

5 SPY support and resistance levels to focus on

5 $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ support and resistance levels to focus on 🧵1. Massive supply area (selling pressure zone) above $610-$6122. $600 level is a big demand zone and 50SMA on daily chart3. Common gap at from $585-$590 (most likely will get filled quickly)4. Recent bounce at $575-$578 area5. $568 area is the 200SMA on daily chart and massive area of support. If we test this area under $570 even a little bit. I'd go long 9/10 times here.You can choose options for SPY $600 for June 2025 or for a quick swing $580 for March 2025.Image
5 SPY support and resistance levels to focus on

SPY bounced right here at $610.90 area

SPY bounced right here at $610.90 area. Best picture of how to find support and buyers:✅look for areas of consolidation but support holds✅a lot of buyers entered by volume✅and it broke to the upside (shorts will cover later)SPX SPY plays like this happen everyday you have to be patient and choose an appropriate position size.As soon as SPY breaks $612 supply zone here target is $615+ this week and it could be a trending up day!Trading is the hardest way to make money and 99% of the time people will give up trading. But, you’re not most people. Remember this! Image
SPY bounced right here at $610.90 area

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