SPY can easily drop another 5%-10% from $565 after FOMC

Michael Esther
03-19

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ can easily drop another 5%-10% from $565 after FOMC on March 19.

Here's 4 things that will impact the course of history 🧵

1. GDP is for Q1 is estimated to be NEGATIVE. I don't think SPY has properly priced this in. and JPOW will address this on Wednesday. If he says, the economy is slowing down and we are seeing deterioration, SPY wont like it all. The Q&A session at FOMC will determine if there will be BLOOD on the streets this week back down under $550.

2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ are really cheap now with lower PE, but they can go lower in the next month in April. This is why Warren Buffet and Jamie Dimon sold their holdings in VOO and SPY to brace for what is to come this year.

3. President wants to refinance US debt at a lower rate so the only way to do this and push inflation down so to do this the government needs to stop spending (DOGE) and people need to stop spending (recession or economic slowdown)

4. Scott Bessent is a former hedgefund manager and he said last night a recession is also possible in the cards this 2025 or 2026. President Trump is warning everyone there is more downside.

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If you're interested in what I think the SPY target for this year will be comment "target" and I'll share it with you. I think the 2nd half of the year and end of 2025 will be extreme bullish.

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