$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ 📉📉📉 Well, the market’s been caught in a thundersnow storm, hasn’t it? Quite the understatement 😂! The NASDAQ plunged 2.7%, the S&P 500 shed nearly 2%, and tech giants, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia, saw $505 billion evaporate in a single day. The Nasdaq 100’s now less than 7% from a bear market, with $QQQ slipping below the ,10% correction line and hurtling toward ,15%. If the bulls don’t muster some grit soon, we’re knocking on that bear market door. Black Friday didn’t just erase the week’s gains, it torched them, leaving us in a hailstorm of tariffs, valuations, and rattled sentiment. But as Warren Buffett, channelling Kipling, once said, “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs… Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.” Time to cut through the chaos.

What’s Driving the Tempest?

Tariff Whiplash

President Trump’s tariff saga is a lightning rod. Early hints that April 2 tariffs might be surgical sparked a fleeting S&P 500 rebound, bottoming at 5,505 on March 13th, then climbing 5% through March 26th as headlines quieted. But then came the thunder, a 25% auto tariff threat. Trump, per Bloomberg, “couldn’t care less” if automakers hike prices in response. That indifference flipped the script, undoing the rally and igniting panic. Producers are front running tariffs, ballooning the US trade deficit to a jaw dropping $301 billion over two months, rarely have we seen it even half that size. Goldman Sachs warns broad tariffs could shave 1.5% off GDP, Morgan Stanley says the uncertainty alone freezes investment. It’s a storm no one saw peaking this late.

Valuations Teetering

The Shiller P/E for the S&P 500’s at a decade high, screaming that stocks, especially tech, are priced for a dreamscape. Unlike the standard P/E, skewed by one year flukes, the Shiller averages earnings over years for clarity. Tech profit growth crested in 2024, and with most sectors missing targets, the market’s questioning these heights. Amazon’s eight week losing streak, its worst since 2022, and Meta’s six week skid signal a reckoning. JPMorgan’s strategists see little margin for error, a stumble here could cascade.

Inflation’s Hot Sting

Friday’s Core PCE data landed like hail, 2.8% annually, up from 2.6%, with January revised to 2.7%. That’s when the equity slide accelerated, hot inflation plus tariff costs is a brutal combo. Sentiment’s so polarised it’s sending shockwaves, with investors caught in a bull trap after misjudging tariff relief as a peak. Risk appetite surged, then crashed.

Hedge Fund Signals

   •   Bridgewater: Ray Dalio’s team is doubling down on gold and inflation hedges, eyeing a correction as tariffs and inflation bite.

   •   Renaissance: The quant masters are quietly buying small caps, a contrarian move betting on value when giants falter.

Did Black Friday Wipe the Slate?

Yes, and then some. Whatever crept up earlier in the week, buoyed by that tariff “relief” narrative, got buried. The auto tariff jolt, valuation doubts, and PCE heat turned Black Friday into a reckoning. It’s the overreaction Buffett warns us to weather with a steady hand.

My Strategy: Hedged and Poised

So, what’s my play? I’m not slamming doors or chasing stop losses, that’s just locking in losses mid storm. I’m hedged with $FSM, a gold and silver miner that’s been my anchor. Gold’s up 70% in 16 months, hitting a $20.75 trillion market cap, $1.25 trillion more than the top 10 assets combined. It’s screaming safety amid inflation and chaos, and FSM’s dual exposure could shine. I was ready for this shakeout, and it’s paying off. I’m not adding yet, October looks grimmer with tariffs unresolved and valuations untested, but I’m eyeing small caps and inflation plays when the dust settles. Buffett’s unplugged Omaha vibe feels like an edge here, tuning out the noise lets me see the board clearly.

Trump or Valuations: The Real Culprit?

It’s a duo. Trump’s “couldn’t care less” tariff stance keeps markets guessing, Morgan Stanley calls it a sentiment killer. The S&P’s March rally unravelled the second auto tariffs hit, proving his moves are live wires. But the Shiller P/E was already flashing red, tech’s stretched thin. Trump’s the spark, valuations are the dry timber. Together, they’re a volatility vortex until trade clears or prices reset.

The Takeaway

This is a market wrestling with tariff tremors, valuation vertigo, and inflation’s sting. The Nasdaq’s bear market flirtation, Amazon and Meta’s slumps, and a $301 billion trade deficit paint a fragile picture. Buffett’s calm, distilled in Omaha far from the fray, pairs with gold’s surge to signal patience over panic. I’m hedged with $FSM, waiting for October’s downside to play out, then striking when the storm breaks. The crowd’s reeling, I’m ready for the reward.

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Happy trading ahead. Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

@Ah_Meng Join in the convo mate! Ah_Meng, since you’re already hedged in precious wisdom, drop another nugget here. This conversation could use a little more sparkle from your vault!