Black Friday: Do Trump or High Valuations Drag Down the Market?
$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 2.7%, and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ dropped nearly 2%. The combined market value of the seven major tech stocks evaporated by about $505 billion. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ closed down 4.88%, Meta and Amazon dropped 4.29%, Tesla fell 3.51%, Microsoft dropped 3.02%, Apple decreased by 2.66%, and Nvidia declined by 1.58%.
Initially, reports suggested that tariffs set to be implemented on April 2 might be more targeted than initially proposed, leading to a brief rebound in the S&P 500. However, further news indicated that automakers may still face higher import taxes, and the market turned back down again. This back-and-forth messaging heightened investor anxiety.
The Federal Reserve and other economists have repeatedly warned that trade barriers could slow economic growth in the coming quarters. The cost increase from tariffs is not only affecting corporate profitability but also dampening investment sentiment and consumer spending.
Most sectors in the S&P 500 have failed to meet previously expected profit growth. Profit growth in the tech sector reached its peak in 2024. Overvalued tech stocks have undergone a round of reevaluation.
The Shiller P/E for the S&P 500 remains at its highest level in 10 years.
The traditional P/E ratio is heavily influenced by single-year earnings and can be distorted by temporary financial performance (such as one-time gains or losses). In contrast, Shiller P/E accounts for average earnings over multiple years, avoiding the impact of short-term fluctuations.
In addition to the high valuation impact, Trump’s April 2 tariffs and Tesla’s Q1 delivery data also played a role.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ has released its company-compiled delivery consensus for this quarter. The automaker is expected to deliver 377,592 electric vehicles, marking its worst performance in more than two years.
Did Black Friday wipe out all of this week's gains?
What is your strategy: Close positions, stop losses, and wait for a pullback, or relax and add to positions?
Do you think Trump or high valuations are more responsible for this year’s market performance?
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$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ 📉📉📉 Well, the market’s been caught in a thundersnow storm, hasn’t it? Quite the understatement 😂! The NASDAQ plunged 2.7%, the S&P 500 shed nearly 2%, and tech giants, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia, saw $505 billion evaporate in a single day. The Nasdaq 100’s now less than 7% from a bear market, with $QQQ slipping below the ,10% correction line and hurtling toward ,15%. If the bulls don’t muster some grit soon, we’re knocking on that bear market door. Black Friday didn’t just erase the week’s gains, it torched them, leaving us in a hailstorm of tariffs, valuations, and rattled sentiment. But as Warren Buffett, channelling Kipling, once said, “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs… Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.” Time to cut through the chaos.
What’s Driving the Tempest?
Tariff Whiplash
President Trump’s tariff saga is a lightning rod. Early hints that April 2 tariffs might be surgical sparked a fleeting S&P 500 rebound, bottoming at 5,505 on March 13th, then climbing 5% through March 26th as headlines quieted. But then came the thunder, a 25% auto tariff threat. Trump, per Bloomberg, “couldn’t care less” if automakers hike prices in response. That indifference flipped the script, undoing the rally and igniting panic. Producers are front running tariffs, ballooning the US trade deficit to a jaw dropping $301 billion over two months, rarely have we seen it even half that size. Goldman Sachs warns broad tariffs could shave 1.5% off GDP, Morgan Stanley says the uncertainty alone freezes investment. It’s a storm no one saw peaking this late.
Valuations Teetering
The Shiller P/E for the S&P 500’s at a decade high, screaming that stocks, especially tech, are priced for a dreamscape. Unlike the standard P/E, skewed by one year flukes, the Shiller averages earnings over years for clarity. Tech profit growth crested in 2024, and with most sectors missing targets, the market’s questioning these heights. Amazon’s eight week losing streak, its worst since 2022, and Meta’s six week skid signal a reckoning. JPMorgan’s strategists see little margin for error, a stumble here could cascade.
Inflation’s Hot Sting
Friday’s Core PCE data landed like hail, 2.8% annually, up from 2.6%, with January revised to 2.7%. That’s when the equity slide accelerated, hot inflation plus tariff costs is a brutal combo. Sentiment’s so polarised it’s sending shockwaves, with investors caught in a bull trap after misjudging tariff relief as a peak. Risk appetite surged, then crashed.
Hedge Fund Signals
• Bridgewater: Ray Dalio’s team is doubling down on gold and inflation hedges, eyeing a correction as tariffs and inflation bite.
• Renaissance: The quant masters are quietly buying small caps, a contrarian move betting on value when giants falter.
Did Black Friday Wipe the Slate?
Yes, and then some. Whatever crept up earlier in the week, buoyed by that tariff “relief” narrative, got buried. The auto tariff jolt, valuation doubts, and PCE heat turned Black Friday into a reckoning. It’s the overreaction Buffett warns us to weather with a steady hand.
My Strategy: Hedged and Poised
So, what’s my play? I’m not slamming doors or chasing stop losses, that’s just locking in losses mid storm. I’m hedged with $FSM, a gold and silver miner that’s been my anchor. Gold’s up 70% in 16 months, hitting a $20.75 trillion market cap, $1.25 trillion more than the top 10 assets combined. It’s screaming safety amid inflation and chaos, and FSM’s dual exposure could shine. I was ready for this shakeout, and it’s paying off. I’m not adding yet, October looks grimmer with tariffs unresolved and valuations untested, but I’m eyeing small caps and inflation plays when the dust settles. Buffett’s unplugged Omaha vibe feels like an edge here, tuning out the noise lets me see the board clearly.
Trump or Valuations: The Real Culprit?
It’s a duo. Trump’s “couldn’t care less” tariff stance keeps markets guessing, Morgan Stanley calls it a sentiment killer. The S&P’s March rally unravelled the second auto tariffs hit, proving his moves are live wires. But the Shiller P/E was already flashing red, tech’s stretched thin. Trump’s the spark, valuations are the dry timber. Together, they’re a volatility vortex until trade clears or prices reset.
The Takeaway
This is a market wrestling with tariff tremors, valuation vertigo, and inflation’s sting. The Nasdaq’s bear market flirtation, Amazon and Meta’s slumps, and a $301 billion trade deficit paint a fragile picture. Buffett’s calm, distilled in Omaha far from the fray, pairs with gold’s surge to signal patience over panic. I’m hedged with $FSM, waiting for October’s downside to play out, then striking when the storm breaks. The crowd’s reeling, I’m ready for the reward.
📢 Please Like, Repost, and Follow me for sharp setups, stock trends, and actionable insights 🚀📈 I’m all about spotting the next movers and sharing strategies that deliver results. Let’s trade smarter and grow together 🍀🍀🍀
Happy trading ahead. Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀
@Ah_Meng Join in the convo mate! Ah_Meng, since you’re already hedged in precious wisdom, drop another nugget here. This conversation could use a little more sparkle from your vault!![[Grin]](https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/community/assets/media/emoji_014_ciya.6e6d1a10.png)
![[Happy]](https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/community/assets/media/emoji_002_kaixin.d4dce72e.png)
![[ShakeHands]](https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/community/assets/media/emoji_041_woshou.5ba540f4.png)
🌟🌟🌟It maybe Black Friday in the US markets but surprisingly Singapore's STI Index set an intraday record on Friday as it crossed the 4,000 mark for the very first time in the morning.
Some people say that our Singapore marketis slow moving and boring. However the phenomenal performance of our 3 local banks helped pushed up the STI Index.
I am pleased with the performance of $STI ETF(ES3.SI)$
America's Liberation Day is coming - April 2 2025. That is the day that Donald Trump plans to reveal his Trade Tariff Plan. Tariffs are a bad news for the stock market and the economy. They raise prices, slow economic growth, cut profits, increase unemployment and increase global tensions.
I believe that April will be another volatile month. However with a long term horizon, great stocks like the Magnificent 7 will prevail. This is certainly a golden opportunity to buy the Magnificent 7 at great prices.
As Warren Buffett likes to say When there is Fear in the markets it is time to be greedy.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @CaptainTiger @TigerClub
$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 2.7%, and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ dropped nearly 2%. The combined market value of the seven major tech stocks evaporated by about $505 billion. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ closed down 4.88%, Meta and Amazon dropped 4.29%, Tesla fell 3.51%, Microsoft dropped 3.02%, Apple decreased by 2.66%, and Nvidia declined by 1.58%.
Did Black Friday wipe out all of this week's gains?
What is your strategy: Close positions, stop losses, and wait for a pullback, or relax and add to positions?
Do you think Trump or high valuations are more responsible for this year’s market performance?
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ 📉📉📉 Well, the market’s been caught in a thundersnow storm, hasn’t it? Quite the understatement 😂! The NASDAQ plunged 2.7%, the S&P 500 shed nearly 2%, and tech giants, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia, saw $505 billion evaporate in a single day. The Nasdaq 100’s now less than 7% from a bear market, with $QQQ slipping below the ,10% correction line and hurtling toward ,15%. If the bulls don’t muster some grit soon, we’re knocking on that bear market door. Black Friday didn’t just erase the week’s gains, it torched them, leaving us in a hailstorm of tariffs, valuations, and rattled sentiment. But as Warren Buffett, channelling Kipling, once said, “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs… Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.” Time to cut through the chaos.
What’s Driving the Tempest?
Tariff Whiplash
President Trump’s tariff saga is a lightning rod. Early hints that April 2 tariffs might be surgical sparked a fleeting S&P 500 rebound, bottoming at 5,505 on March 13th, then climbing 5% through March 26th as headlines quieted. But then came the thunder, a 25% auto tariff threat. Trump, per Bloomberg, “couldn’t care less” if automakers hike prices in response. That indifference flipped the script, undoing the rally and igniting panic. Producers are front running tariffs, ballooning the US trade deficit to a jaw dropping $301 billion over two months, rarely have we seen it even half that size. Goldman Sachs warns broad tariffs could shave 1.5% off GDP, Morgan Stanley says the uncertainty alone freezes investment. It’s a storm no one saw peaking this late.
Valuations Teetering
The Shiller P/E for the S&P 500’s at a decade high, screaming that stocks, especially tech, are priced for a dreamscape. Unlike the standard P/E, skewed by one year flukes, the Shiller averages earnings over years for clarity. Tech profit growth crested in 2024, and with most sectors missing targets, the market’s questioning these heights. Amazon’s eight week losing streak, its worst since 2022, and Meta’s six week skid signal a reckoning. JPMorgan’s strategists see little margin for error, a stumble here could cascade.
Inflation’s Hot Sting
Friday’s Core PCE data landed like hail, 2.8% annually, up from 2.6%, with January revised to 2.7%. That’s when the equity slide accelerated, hot inflation plus tariff costs is a brutal combo. Sentiment’s so polarised it’s sending shockwaves, with investors caught in a bull trap after misjudging tariff relief as a peak. Risk appetite surged, then crashed.
Hedge Fund Signals
• Bridgewater: Ray Dalio’s team is doubling down on gold and inflation hedges, eyeing a correction as tariffs and inflation bite.
• Renaissance: The quant masters are quietly buying small caps, a contrarian move betting on value when giants falter.
Did Black Friday Wipe the Slate?
Yes, and then some. Whatever crept up earlier in the week, buoyed by that tariff “relief” narrative, got buried. The auto tariff jolt, valuation doubts, and PCE heat turned Black Friday into a reckoning. It’s the overreaction Buffett warns us to weather with a steady hand.
My Strategy: Hedged and Poised
So, what’s my play? I’m not slamming doors or chasing stop losses, that’s just locking in losses mid storm. I’m hedged with $FSM, a gold and silver miner that’s been my anchor. Gold’s up 70% in 16 months, hitting a $20.75 trillion market cap, $1.25 trillion more than the top 10 assets combined. It’s screaming safety amid inflation and chaos, and FSM’s dual exposure could shine. I was ready for this shakeout, and it’s paying off. I’m not adding yet, October looks grimmer with tariffs unresolved and valuations untested, but I’m eyeing small caps and inflation plays when the dust settles. Buffett’s unplugged Omaha vibe feels like an edge here, tuning out the noise lets me see the board clearly.
Trump or Valuations: The Real Culprit?
It’s a duo. Trump’s “couldn’t care less” tariff stance keeps markets guessing, Morgan Stanley calls it a sentiment killer. The S&P’s March rally unravelled the second auto tariffs hit, proving his moves are live wires. But the Shiller P/E was already flashing red, tech’s stretched thin. Trump’s the spark, valuations are the dry timber. Together, they’re a volatility vortex until trade clears or prices reset.
The Takeaway
This is a market wrestling with tariff tremors, valuation vertigo, and inflation’s sting. The Nasdaq’s bear market flirtation, Amazon and Meta’s slumps, and a $301 billion trade deficit paint a fragile picture. Buffett’s calm, distilled in Omaha far from the fray, pairs with gold’s surge to signal patience over panic. I’m hedged with $FSM, waiting for October’s downside to play out, then striking when the storm breaks. The crowd’s reeling, I’m ready for the reward.
📢 Please Like, Repost, and Follow me for sharp setups, stock trends, and actionable insights 🚀📈 I’m all about spotting the next movers and sharing strategies that deliver results. Let’s trade smarter and grow together 🍀🍀🍀
Happy trading ahead. Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀
@Ah_Meng Join in the convo mate! Ah_Meng, since you’re already hedged in precious wisdom, drop another nugget here. This conversation could use a little more sparkle from your vault!![[Grin]](https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/community/assets/media/emoji_014_ciya.6e6d1a10.png)
![[Happy]](https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/community/assets/media/emoji_002_kaixin.d4dce72e.png)
![[ShakeHands]](https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/community/assets/media/emoji_041_woshou.5ba540f4.png)
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ 📉📉📉 Well, the market’s been caught in a thundersnow storm, hasn’t it? Quite the understatement 😂! The NASDAQ plunged 2.7%, the S&P 500 shed nearly 2%, and tech giants, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia, saw $505 billion evaporate in a single day. The Nasdaq 100’s now less than 7% from a bear market, with $QQQ slipping below the ,10% correction line and hurtling toward ,15%. If the bulls don’t muster some grit soon, we’re knocking on that bear market door. Black Friday didn’t just erase the week’s gains, it torched them, leaving us in a hailstorm of tariffs, valuations, and rattled sentiment. But as Warren Buffett, channelling Kipling, once said, “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs… Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.” Time to cut through the chaos.
What’s Driving the Tempest?
Tariff Whiplash
President Trump’s tariff saga is a lightning rod. Early hints that April 2 tariffs might be surgical sparked a fleeting S&P 500 rebound, bottoming at 5,505 on March 13th, then climbing 5% through March 26th as headlines quieted. But then came the thunder, a 25% auto tariff threat. Trump, per Bloomberg, “couldn’t care less” if automakers hike prices in response. That indifference flipped the script, undoing the rally and igniting panic. Producers are front running tariffs, ballooning the US trade deficit to a jaw dropping $301 billion over two months, rarely have we seen it even half that size. Goldman Sachs warns broad tariffs could shave 1.5% off GDP, Morgan Stanley says the uncertainty alone freezes investment. It’s a storm no one saw peaking this late.
Valuations Teetering
The Shiller P/E for the S&P 500’s at a decade high, screaming that stocks, especially tech, are priced for a dreamscape. Unlike the standard P/E, skewed by one year flukes, the Shiller averages earnings over years for clarity. Tech profit growth crested in 2024, and with most sectors missing targets, the market’s questioning these heights. Amazon’s eight week losing streak, its worst since 2022, and Meta’s six week skid signal a reckoning. JPMorgan’s strategists see little margin for error, a stumble here could cascade.
Inflation’s Hot Sting
Friday’s Core PCE data landed like hail, 2.8% annually, up from 2.6%, with January revised to 2.7%. That’s when the equity slide accelerated, hot inflation plus tariff costs is a brutal combo. Sentiment’s so polarised it’s sending shockwaves, with investors caught in a bull trap after misjudging tariff relief as a peak. Risk appetite surged, then crashed.
Hedge Fund Signals
• Bridgewater: Ray Dalio’s team is doubling down on gold and inflation hedges, eyeing a correction as tariffs and inflation bite.
• Renaissance: The quant masters are quietly buying small caps, a contrarian move betting on value when giants falter.
Did Black Friday Wipe the Slate?
Yes, and then some. Whatever crept up earlier in the week, buoyed by that tariff “relief” narrative, got buried. The auto tariff jolt, valuation doubts, and PCE heat turned Black Friday into a reckoning. It’s the overreaction Buffett warns us to weather with a steady hand.
My Strategy: Hedged and Poised
So, what’s my play? I’m not slamming doors or chasing stop losses, that’s just locking in losses mid storm. I’m hedged with $FSM, a gold and silver miner that’s been my anchor. Gold’s up 70% in 16 months, hitting a $20.75 trillion market cap, $1.25 trillion more than the top 10 assets combined. It’s screaming safety amid inflation and chaos, and FSM’s dual exposure could shine. I was ready for this shakeout, and it’s paying off. I’m not adding yet, October looks grimmer with tariffs unresolved and valuations untested, but I’m eyeing small caps and inflation plays when the dust settles. Buffett’s unplugged Omaha vibe feels like an edge here, tuning out the noise lets me see the board clearly.
Trump or Valuations: The Real Culprit?
It’s a duo. Trump’s “couldn’t care less” tariff stance keeps markets guessing, Morgan Stanley calls it a sentiment killer. The S&P’s March rally unravelled the second auto tariffs hit, proving his moves are live wires. But the Shiller P/E was already flashing red, tech’s stretched thin. Trump’s the spark, valuations are the dry timber. Together, they’re a volatility vortex until trade clears or prices reset.
The Takeaway
This is a market wrestling with tariff tremors, valuation vertigo, and inflation’s sting. The Nasdaq’s bear market flirtation, Amazon and Meta’s slumps, and a $301 billion trade deficit paint a fragile picture. Buffett’s calm, distilled in Omaha far from the fray, pairs with gold’s surge to signal patience over panic. I’m hedged with $FSM, waiting for October’s downside to play out, then striking when the storm breaks. The crowd’s reeling, I’m ready for the reward.
📢 Please Like, Repost, and Follow me for sharp setups, stock trends, and actionable insights 🚀📈 I’m all about spotting the next movers and sharing strategies that deliver results. Let’s trade smarter and grow together 🍀🍀🍀
Happy trading ahead. Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀
@Ah_Meng Join in the convo mate! Ah_Meng, since you’re already hedged in precious wisdom, drop another nugget here. This conversation could use a little more sparkle from your vault!![[Grin]](https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/community/assets/media/emoji_014_ciya.6e6d1a10.png)
![[Happy]](https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/community/assets/media/emoji_002_kaixin.d4dce72e.png)
![[ShakeHands]](https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/community/assets/media/emoji_041_woshou.5ba540f4.png)
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ 📉📉📉 Well, the market’s been caught in a thundersnow storm, hasn’t it? Quite the understatement 😂! The NASDAQ plunged 2.7%, the S&P 500 shed nearly 2%, and tech giants, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia, saw $505 billion evaporate in a single day. The Nasdaq 100’s now less than 7% from a bear market, with $QQQ slipping below the ,10% correction line and hurtling toward ,15%. If the bulls don’t muster some grit soon, we’re knocking on that bear market door. Black Friday didn’t just erase the week’s gains, it torched them, leaving us in a hailstorm of tariffs, valuations, and rattled sentiment. But as Warren Buffett, channelling Kipling, once said, “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs… Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.” Time to cut through the chaos.
What’s Driving the Tempest?
Tariff Whiplash
President Trump’s tariff saga is a lightning rod. Early hints that April 2 tariffs might be surgical sparked a fleeting S&P 500 rebound, bottoming at 5,505 on March 13th, then climbing 5% through March 26th as headlines quieted. But then came the thunder, a 25% auto tariff threat. Trump, per Bloomberg, “couldn’t care less” if automakers hike prices in response. That indifference flipped the script, undoing the rally and igniting panic. Producers are front running tariffs, ballooning the US trade deficit to a jaw dropping $301 billion over two months, rarely have we seen it even half that size. Goldman Sachs warns broad tariffs could shave 1.5% off GDP, Morgan Stanley says the uncertainty alone freezes investment. It’s a storm no one saw peaking this late.
Valuations Teetering
The Shiller P/E for the S&P 500’s at a decade high, screaming that stocks, especially tech, are priced for a dreamscape. Unlike the standard P/E, skewed by one year flukes, the Shiller averages earnings over years for clarity. Tech profit growth crested in 2024, and with most sectors missing targets, the market’s questioning these heights. Amazon’s eight week losing streak, its worst since 2022, and Meta’s six week skid signal a reckoning. JPMorgan’s strategists see little margin for error, a stumble here could cascade.
Inflation’s Hot Sting
Friday’s Core PCE data landed like hail, 2.8% annually, up from 2.6%, with January revised to 2.7%. That’s when the equity slide accelerated, hot inflation plus tariff costs is a brutal combo. Sentiment’s so polarised it’s sending shockwaves, with investors caught in a bull trap after misjudging tariff relief as a peak. Risk appetite surged, then crashed.
Hedge Fund Signals
• Bridgewater: Ray Dalio’s team is doubling down on gold and inflation hedges, eyeing a correction as tariffs and inflation bite.
• Renaissance: The quant masters are quietly buying small caps, a contrarian move betting on value when giants falter.
Did Black Friday Wipe the Slate?
Yes, and then some. Whatever crept up earlier in the week, buoyed by that tariff “relief” narrative, got buried. The auto tariff jolt, valuation doubts, and PCE heat turned Black Friday into a reckoning. It’s the overreaction Buffett warns us to weather with a steady hand.
My Strategy: Hedged and Poised
So, what’s my play? I’m not slamming doors or chasing stop losses, that’s just locking in losses mid storm. I’m hedged with $FSM, a gold and silver miner that’s been my anchor. Gold’s up 70% in 16 months, hitting a $20.75 trillion market cap, $1.25 trillion more than the top 10 assets combined. It’s screaming safety amid inflation and chaos, and FSM’s dual exposure could shine. I was ready for this shakeout, and it’s paying off. I’m not adding yet, October looks grimmer with tariffs unresolved and valuations untested, but I’m eyeing small caps and inflation plays when the dust settles. Buffett’s unplugged Omaha vibe feels like an edge here, tuning out the noise lets me see the board clearly.
Trump or Valuations: The Real Culprit?
It’s a duo. Trump’s “couldn’t care less” tariff stance keeps markets guessing, Morgan Stanley calls it a sentiment killer. The S&P’s March rally unravelled the second auto tariffs hit, proving his moves are live wires. But the Shiller P/E was already flashing red, tech’s stretched thin. Trump’s the spark, valuations are the dry timber. Together, they’re a volatility vortex until trade clears or prices reset.
The Takeaway
This is a market wrestling with tariff tremors, valuation vertigo, and inflation’s sting. The Nasdaq’s bear market flirtation, Amazon and Meta’s slumps, and a $301 billion trade deficit paint a fragile picture. Buffett’s calm, distilled in Omaha far from the fray, pairs with gold’s surge to signal patience over panic. I’m hedged with $FSM, waiting for October’s downside to play out, then striking when the storm breaks. The crowd’s reeling, I’m ready for the reward.
📢 Please Like, Repost, and Follow me for sharp setups, stock trends, and actionable insights 🚀📈 I’m all about spotting the next movers and sharing strategies that deliver results. Let’s trade smarter and grow together 🍀🍀🍀
Happy trading ahead. Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀
@Ah_Meng Join in the convo mate! Ah_Meng, since you’re already hedged in precious wisdom, drop another nugget here. This conversation could use a little more sparkle from your vault!![[Grin]](https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/community/assets/media/emoji_014_ciya.6e6d1a10.png)
![[Happy]](https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/community/assets/media/emoji_002_kaixin.d4dce72e.png)
![[ShakeHands]](https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/community/assets/media/emoji_041_woshou.5ba540f4.png)
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ 📉📉📉 Well, the market’s been caught in a thundersnow storm, hasn’t it? Quite the understatement 😂! The NASDAQ plunged 2.7%, the S&P 500 shed nearly 2%, and tech giants, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia, saw $505 billion evaporate in a single day. The Nasdaq 100’s now less than 7% from a bear market, with $QQQ slipping below the ,10% correction line and hurtling toward ,15%. If the bulls don’t muster some grit soon, we’re knocking on that bear market door. Black Friday didn’t just erase the week’s gains, it torched them, leaving us in a hailstorm of tariffs, valuations, and rattled sentiment. But as Warren Buffett, channelling Kipling, once said, “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs… Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.” Time to cut through the chaos.
What’s Driving the Tempest?
Tariff Whiplash
President Trump’s tariff saga is a lightning rod. Early hints that April 2 tariffs might be surgical sparked a fleeting S&P 500 rebound, bottoming at 5,505 on March 13th, then climbing 5% through March 26th as headlines quieted. But then came the thunder, a 25% auto tariff threat. Trump, per Bloomberg, “couldn’t care less” if automakers hike prices in response. That indifference flipped the script, undoing the rally and igniting panic. Producers are front running tariffs, ballooning the US trade deficit to a jaw dropping $301 billion over two months, rarely have we seen it even half that size. Goldman Sachs warns broad tariffs could shave 1.5% off GDP, Morgan Stanley says the uncertainty alone freezes investment. It’s a storm no one saw peaking this late.
Valuations Teetering
The Shiller P/E for the S&P 500’s at a decade high, screaming that stocks, especially tech, are priced for a dreamscape. Unlike the standard P/E, skewed by one year flukes, the Shiller averages earnings over years for clarity. Tech profit growth crested in 2024, and with most sectors missing targets, the market’s questioning these heights. Amazon’s eight week losing streak, its worst since 2022, and Meta’s six week skid signal a reckoning. JPMorgan’s strategists see little margin for error, a stumble here could cascade.
Inflation’s Hot Sting
Friday’s Core PCE data landed like hail, 2.8% annually, up from 2.6%, with January revised to 2.7%. That’s when the equity slide accelerated, hot inflation plus tariff costs is a brutal combo. Sentiment’s so polarised it’s sending shockwaves, with investors caught in a bull trap after misjudging tariff relief as a peak. Risk appetite surged, then crashed.
Hedge Fund Signals
• Bridgewater: Ray Dalio’s team is doubling down on gold and inflation hedges, eyeing a correction as tariffs and inflation bite.
• Renaissance: The quant masters are quietly buying small caps, a contrarian move betting on value when giants falter.
Did Black Friday Wipe the Slate?
Yes, and then some. Whatever crept up earlier in the week, buoyed by that tariff “relief” narrative, got buried. The auto tariff jolt, valuation doubts, and PCE heat turned Black Friday into a reckoning. It’s the overreaction Buffett warns us to weather with a steady hand.
My Strategy: Hedged and Poised
So, what’s my play? I’m not slamming doors or chasing stop losses, that’s just locking in losses mid storm. I’m hedged with $FSM, a gold and silver miner that’s been my anchor. Gold’s up 70% in 16 months, hitting a $20.75 trillion market cap, $1.25 trillion more than the top 10 assets combined. It’s screaming safety amid inflation and chaos, and FSM’s dual exposure could shine. I was ready for this shakeout, and it’s paying off. I’m not adding yet, October looks grimmer with tariffs unresolved and valuations untested, but I’m eyeing small caps and inflation plays when the dust settles. Buffett’s unplugged Omaha vibe feels like an edge here, tuning out the noise lets me see the board clearly.
Trump or Valuations: The Real Culprit?
It’s a duo. Trump’s “couldn’t care less” tariff stance keeps markets guessing, Morgan Stanley calls it a sentiment killer. The S&P’s March rally unravelled the second auto tariffs hit, proving his moves are live wires. But the Shiller P/E was already flashing red, tech’s stretched thin. Trump’s the spark, valuations are the dry timber. Together, they’re a volatility vortex until trade clears or prices reset.
The Takeaway
This is a market wrestling with tariff tremors, valuation vertigo, and inflation’s sting. The Nasdaq’s bear market flirtation, Amazon and Meta’s slumps, and a $301 billion trade deficit paint a fragile picture. Buffett’s calm, distilled in Omaha far from the fray, pairs with gold’s surge to signal patience over panic. I’m hedged with $FSM, waiting for October’s downside to play out, then striking when the storm breaks. The crowd’s reeling, I’m ready for the reward.
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@Ah_Meng Join in the convo mate! Ah_Meng, since you’re already hedged in precious wisdom, drop another nugget here. This conversation could use a little more sparkle from your vault!![[Grin]](https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/community/assets/media/emoji_014_ciya.6e6d1a10.png)
![[Happy]](https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/community/assets/media/emoji_002_kaixin.d4dce72e.png)
![[ShakeHands]](https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/community/assets/media/emoji_041_woshou.5ba540f4.png)
if selling spreads, close position when short put strike price is reached
if selling single leg puts, can roll. if dte is long can wait for recovery.
if investing, when price support levels reached, can add a little.
if no cash, or not trading, eat popcorn and watch the show.
i still hoping 2 Apr is buy the news and if there is any green candle, i will hold. if the drop continues, it may be a bear flag. i will close out. in any case, i think 2 Apr will give an signal
so far Trump is causing a lot of swings and market seems to be reacting and no signs of getting use to the antics, the high valuations make the magnitude of swing hard to swallow. they are quite big in my opinion. the drop
这次美股大跌，纳指跌2.7%，标普500跌近2%，七大科技巨头蒸发超5000亿美元，市场恐慌情绪显然升温。那么，罪魁祸首到底是高估值，还是特朗普？
从估值角度看，标普500的席勒市盈率（CAPE）处于十年来的高位，市场早就存在泡沫隐忧。本轮美股牛市很大程度上依赖于AI和科技股的疯狂上涨，但当估值超前于基本面增长，任何风吹草动都可能引发剧烈回调。换句话说，高估值使市场更加脆弱，而非真正的下跌导火索。
特朗普的关税威胁确实是市场情绪恶化的直接催化剂。他4月2日计划宣布的贸易政策可能影响全球供应链，而市场最怕的不确定性。历史经验表明，特朗普的贸易战言论往往先打击市场情绪，最终会否落实还要看选情走向。但在短期内，投资者担心成本上升、企业利润受损，自然会先行减仓避险。
因此，这次暴跌更像是“高估值+特朗普”双重因素共振，叠加特斯拉糟糕的交付数据，加速了市场的调整。面对这样的行情，我会选择谨慎加仓，而不是恐慌杀跌。市场调整是好事，关键是找到真正有价值的标的，而不是跟风恐慌。
除了高估值影響，Trump 4月2日的關稅和特斯拉Q1交付數據也起到了作用。
$特斯拉(TSLA)$發佈了公司編制的本季度交付共識。該汽車製造商預計將交付377,592輛電動汽車，創下兩年多來的最差表現。
美聯儲和其他經濟學家一再警告稱，貿易壁壘可能會減緩未來幾個季度的經濟增長。關稅帶來的成本增加不僅影響企業盈利能力，還抑制了投資情緒和消費者支出。