US Market Insights (Mar 31 – Apr 4): A Potential Relief Rally If Softer Tariffs Are Announced

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Tiger_James Ooi
03-31

Things you should know before starting your week

1)      Investors Turned Jittery Ahead of April 2 Liberation Day

  • Trump has vowed to "liberate" the U.S. from foreign goods this Wednesday by imposing new tariffs on imports.

  • Investor sentiment is weakening, with stocks sliding ahead of Wednesday due to uncertainty over the tariff rollout.

  • Trump's planned 25% auto tariff, set to begin on April 2, is also expected to trigger retaliatory measures.

  • Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has informed Trump that Canada will implement retaliatory tariffs in response to the April 2 announcement.

  • The European Union is exploring potential concessions it could offer the Trump administration in exchange for a rollback of some upcoming tariffs.

  • BofA’s Hartnett warned that U.S. import tariffs could rise from the current 2–3% to as high as 8% in 2025.

2) Trump Tariffs Could Face Legal and Congressional Pushback

  • According to WSJ, Trump is considering using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping new tariffs, but White House lawyers have warned this approach could face legal challenges and be overturned in court.

  • Democrats are preparing a Senate vote to challenge the use of IEEPA for tariffs on Canada, aiming to limit executive overreach and restore Congress’s constitutional authority over trade. With bipartisan concerns about the misuse of emergency powers, any broad tariff actions under IEEPA face significant legal and political hurdles that could ultimately lead to their reversal.

3) Hotter-Than-Expected PCE Inflation Drags US Stocks Lower

  • US Core PCE inflation rose to 2.8% in February, above the forecast of 2.7%.

  • The uptick in inflation led to a market pullback on Friday, as investors grew concerned that persistent inflation could prevent the Fed from delivering three rate cuts this year, potentially adding pressure to the economy.

  • Nevertheless, the CME FedWatch Tool still projects three rate cuts by the end of December.

Conclusion:

  • Investors now believe that any market rally will be short-lived as long as Trump continues to announce new tariffs.

  • These tariffs are expected to remain a major overhang for markets moving forward.

  • However, there is a chance that the tariffs announced on April 2 may be softer than expected, potentially leading to less inflationary pressure than initially feared.

  • While it may be too early to call a bottom for the S&P 500, its current valuation appears undemanding at 20.8x forward P/E—down from a peak of 26.6x in mid-February.

  • Investors looking to gain exposure to a market rebound can consider broad-market ETFs such as SPY $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , IVV $iShares Core S&P 500 ETF(IVV)$ , VOO $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ , and the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ ).


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Comments

  • BtWin
    04-02
    BtWin
    Marker crash today . I think you predict buy before Apr is somewhat too early.
    • Tiger_James Ooi
      I still see the March's low as an interim bottom based on technical analysis. However, I am not surprised if SP500 falls to 5300 if it breaks the March's low.
    • Tiger_James OoiReplyTiger_James Ooi
      However, if the trade negotiation takes months or quarter, it will still dampen investors sentiment, and hurt the growth outlook.
    • Tiger_James Ooi
      The newly imposed sweeping tariffs are steeper than expected. However, Asian equities are performing better than expected as the time of writing.
      The silver lining is Trump opens door for negotiation by saying “terminate your own tariffs, drop your barriers” and “don’t manipulate your currencies."
  • twiddly
    03-31
    twiddly
    Great insights! Loving the analysis! [Applaud]
  • henshengqi
    03-31
    henshengqi
    Interesting insights
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