The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ plunged 9.05% and 9.75% respectively last week, due to the sweeping U.S. tariffs imposed.Major market movers included $Apple(AAPL)$ (-13.6%), $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ (-14%), $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ (-11%), $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ (-11.3%), $Microsoft(MSFT)$ (-5%), $Broadcom(AVGO)$ (-13.5%), UnitedHealth (+1.8%), $TJX Companies(TJX)$ (+3.3%),

The way the tariff rates are calculated is downright absurd U.S. appeared to have divided the trade deficit by imports from a given country to arrive at tariff rates for individual countries. For example, U.S. goods trade deficit with China / total US import from China = $295 billion / 439 billion = 67%  Trump may want trade negotiation The base 10 percent tariffs will take effect on April 5, while the higher reciprocal rates (above 10 percent) will come into effect on April 9. Trump opens door for trade negotiation by saying, ““Likewise to all of the foreign presidents, prime ministers, kings, queens, ambassadors and everyone else who will soon be calling to ask for exemptions from these tariffs, I say, terminate your own tariffs, drop your barriers. Don't manipulate your currencies

The steeper-than-expected sweeping tariffs imposed by the US may weigh on Asian equities in the short term, as they dampen the regional growth outlook and raise the risk of retaliatory tariffs from affected Asian countries. The Asia-Pacific region, characterized by its export-driven economies, is expected to face headwinds if global trade activity slows. Chinese-owned factories may also need to reconsider their relocation strategies, as Southeast Asian countries—including Vietnam (46%) and Cambodia (49%)—are also subject to higher US tariffs. China China now faces a hefty 34% reciprocal tariff on exports to the US, in addition to the existing 20% tariff. Although improving corporate earnings, rising investor sentiment, attractive valuations, AI-driven productivity gains, and government sti

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 returned 0.53% and 0.27%, respectively, last week.Major market movers: Nvidia (-3.3%), Meta (-1.9%), Amazon (-0.9%), Broadcom (-1.7%), Micron (-6%), Lockheed Martin (-5.7%), Boeing (+10%), Uber (+6%), Apple (+2.2%), JPMorgan (+4%), and Eli Lilly (+3%).Key economic events this week:Monday: Manufacturing & Services PMIThursday: GDP & Unemployment ClaimsFriday: University of Michigan Consumer SentimentWhat You Should Know Before Starting Your Week1) Post-Election Year Seasonality Suggests the Sell-Off May Be Nearing Its EndHistorical data since 1960 shows that in the first year of a presidential term, the S&P 500 typically experiences two corrections: mid-February to late March and early August to late September.So far, the S&P 500 has closely fo

Here are quickly talk about technical analysis of $.SPX(.SPX)$ . Full live link replay >>Let’s take a look at the S&P 500. Here are the Fibonacci confluence zones for the $.SPX(.SPX)$ To me, the major resistance is 6,850. TA tells me that 2025 target price is 6850.If you are waiting for some support levels to accumulate, 5,900 or 5,500 may be good support levels.To me, the S&P 500 must hold above 5,900 to resume the bullish trend.Let me go through the downside and upside catalysts for the us equity marketWhat could potentially downset investors in

Let's talk about the US market outlook for 2025. Full live link replay >>1. $.SPX(.SPX)$ 2025 Year-end Forecasts:These are some of the 2025 year-end forecasts provided by various research houses for the $.SPX(.SPX)$As of 18 Dec 2024: SPX’s closing price: 5872On average, the year-end target is 6,658, representing a 13% upside compared to yesterday's closing price of 5,872.The most bullish research house is Oppen

Here are my talk about AI Industry. Full live link replay >>I have shared a lot about AI trends in the past. Just bear in mind that the AI total addressable market is huge.The valuation for a lot of AI stocks is expensive, but still not as crazily expensive as during the dot-com bubble.For example, the P/E ratio for the Nasdaq 100 is now trading at 35x. At the peak of the dot-com bubble, it was trading at 175x.1995 marked the start of internet monetization. It also kickstarted the dot-com bubble.The entire dot-com bubble lasted for 5 years, from 1995 to 2000.At its peak, the $.SPX(.SPX)$ returned

Here are my talk about US tariff. Full live link replay >>About one month ago, Trump said he wanted to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico,and an additional 10% on China.Basically, if the U.S. imposes tariffs on any country, that country will still want to export to the U.S. because it is difficult to find a replacement with the size and appetite of the U.S.The common way to make your goods still look affordable to U.S. companies is through currency depreciation.For example, in 2018-2019, the RMB depreciated as much as 13% when the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese goods.Trump’s tariffs are a negotiating tactic to reach a deal.For i

First, let’s spend some time on Trump’s policy. Full live link replay >>The most important thing you need to know is that Trump’s policies are pro-growth and pro-business, which should be constructive for the U.S. equity market in 2025.For example, he has said that he wants to extend the 2017 personal tax cuts and lower the corporate tax rate.The question here is:How likely is Congress to approve Trump’s tax cut plan?The answer is quite likely because Republicans have a majority in the House and Senate.Trump also pledges to lower the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% for corporations that manufacture products in the U.S.The purpose is to

The $.SPX(.SPX)$ and $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ returned -0.61% and +0.75%, respectively, last week.Major market movers include $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ (-5.75%), $Adobe(ADBE)$ (-15.78%), $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ (-4.35%), $Oracle(ORCL)$ (-9.55%), $Broadcom(AVGO)$ (+25.22%), $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ (+12.08%), $Alphabet(GOOG)$ (+8.77%), and $ba(+10.21%).Important economic events this week include Flash Manufacturing/Services PMI on Monday, Ret

The $.SPX(.SPX)$ and $.SPX(.SPX)$ returned 1.08% and 0.75%, respectively.Major movers include $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ (-2.6%), $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ (-2.1%), $Oracle(ORCL)$ (-3.1%), $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ (-3.5%), $Autodesk(ADSK)$ (-9.1%), $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ (-7.1%), $Apple(AAPL)$ (+3.3%), $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ (+5.5%), $Mi

Background:1) Trump's TariffsTrump plans to implement a blanket tariff of 10%-20% on all imported goods, with a 60% tariff specifically on goods imported from China.According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), the average tariff on Chinese goods was 19.3% in June 2023, compared to about 2.3% in 2018.Trump hopes that these tariffs will encourage U.S. companies to reshore their manufacturing operations and protect local businesses from cheaper foreign competition, as the price advantages will diminish once the tariffs are in place.In short, tariffs on imports should support domestic businesses by making foreign-made products more expensive. 2) U.S. May Revoke China’s PNTR StatusThere are growing concerns that the United States may revoke China’s Permanent Norm