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Today’s newsletter will cover the following stocks:
Tempus AI, Inc. (NASDAQ: TEM)
TEM is forming a series of higher highs and higher lows while trading in an ascending channel pattern. TEM's weekly SKDJ indicator formed a bearish crossover 2 weeks ago.
Since then, there's been continuation to the downside. TEM rejected off the 57.59 weekly bearish imbalance and ranged back into the 47.36 weekly support at the end of last Friday's trading session.
This 47.36-48.08 area is key for both upside and downside - break below it and TEM likely retests 41.75-41.99, break above it and TEM likely heads back into 54.18 and 57.59-59.
Given TEM's past price action, the likelihood of a channel support retest is high, which could see a move towards 35-37 over the next few weeks and months. Should TEM break down from its ascending channel, it could eventually push towards 31.25.
Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ: SHOP)
SHOP is trading in an ascending channel with a series of higher highs and higher lows. It filled its quarterly bearish imbalance at 127.19 before rejecting at that level. The monthly SKDJ has not crossed over to the downside while the weekly SKDJ suggests more downside could be coming, given the widening of the 2 indicator lines.
Since the quarterly rejection, SHOP has been consolidating in a falling wedge pattern. I'm watching the 89.10 level closely as it has formed a quarterly bullish imbalance.
98.85 is a key level for further upside into 104.50-104.86, and eventually 119.12 (weekly bearish imbalance). As of today’s session, SHOP is trading above this level. Should this level break down once more, SHOP could range back into the 87.26-89.10 area. A wedge breakdown sees further downside expansion into the monthly bullish imbalance at 84.37.
The risk-to-reward is still decent for bulls until the long-term channel support (in blue) is taken out. If that happens, SHOP could see a substantial drawdown into the quarterly bullish imbalance at 28.61 over the next few months and years.
Twilio Inc. (NYSE: TWLO)
TWLO has been trading in a series of higher lows since IPO, but it has not made new ATHs since 2021. It's bound by the resistance trendlines (in red) - it broke above the intermediate one and is now heading towards the main resistance trendline. The monthly SKDJ indicator is in overbought territory, but has not formed a bearish crossover.
TWLO recently retested its quarterly bullish imbalance at 94.53. There's some more allowance for downside until 92.53, but if that level is taken out, there's room for further downside expansion into 84.70-85.59. Otherwise, TWLO could push towards the 103.78-104.61 area, which was prior support. Filling the weekly bearish imbalance at 104.61-111.74 is key.
Ideally, TWLO should form a bullish crossover on the weekly SKDJ for the best risk-to-reward entry for swing longs. Until then, it could be a choppy series of lower highs and lower lows.
$Tempus AI(TEM)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ $Twilio(TWLO)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$
@TigerWire @TigerStars @CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger @TigerEvents
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