Second-Best Month Fails? What's Your April Trade Plan?

History shows that, since 1971, April has been the second-best month of the year for the three major U.S. stock indexes, according to the Stock Traderโ€™s Almanac. In postelection years since 1950, April has remained a top-performing month โ€” historically ranking as the second-best month for the Dow and the S&P 500, and the third-best month for the Nasdaq (see chart below). However, Trump's tougher-than-expected tariffs drag the market down. ---------------- Is the April effect still possible or not? What's your trade strategy for April?

Some Potential Good News: SPX

The S&P 500 fell 10.5% over two days, the fifth worst 2-day crash since 1950.Nearly $10 trillion has been wiped out of the index since its February peak.By econovisualsThe only other two-day declines of more than 10% were in October 1987, March 2001, November 2008, and March 2020.By CARSONAfter the previous times (1987, 2008, 2020), policymakers stepped in for support, including the Fed, Congress, and the White House.Could this time be different ?Yes, small sample size and a different environment (it is always different), but very strong future returns are common after previous 10% drops in 2 days.by Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrickImageImage
Some Potential Good News: SPX
avatarkoolgal
04-07
๐ŸŒŸ๐ŸŒŸ๐ŸŒŸHistorically April maybe the  2nd best month of the year, but not this April.  It will possibly go down in history as the worst April ever due to the  Trump's punitive Tariffs. The major US  indexes logged their biggest weekly declines since the start of the Covid Pandemic.  It is likely the market fallout will continue this week as the US tariffs will take effect on Wednesday, to be followed by China's 34% retaliatory tariffs on Thursday. However this Bearish market presents an unprecedented opportunity to buy great stocks at phenomenal prices.  I will deploy my warchest to uncover hidden treasures in this market. As Warren Buffett likes to say When there is Fear in the markets it is time to be greedy.
Stop listening to all the so called experts [Gosh]  [Blush]  [Victory]  
avatarAh_Meng
04-04

Tariffs War has started, what's your move?

In a tariffs war, nobody wins. Consumers are obviously the biggest losers. Americans, whose President started it, have more to lose. Here's the winners for day 1. Potential winners for day 2 and more... There are obviously many along the same line of thought. Shorts the big techs that have lots of imports and exports out of US as part of their supply chain. It's no wonder Warren Buffett had been cutting Apple ๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ! He is as sharp as ever if you ask me. What is your move? Would you go into shorting big techs too? With leverage and all? Or will you be just twiddling your fingers and hoping that the whole saga will just die down and markets would just shoot all the way back up? Or go on a holiday and pretend nothing has been? Or maybe sell everything and wait it out? There are so many different
Tariffs War has started, what's your move?
avatarSpiders
04-04

Second-Best Month Fails? Whatโ€™s Your April Trade Plan in a Volatile Market?

April has historically been a strong month for equities. According to the Stock Traderโ€™s Almanac, itโ€™s the second-best month for the major U.S. indexes โ€” the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq โ€” since 1971. In post-election years, going back to 1950, April has continued to shine, typically ranking as the second-best month for the Dow and S&P 500, and third-best for the Nasdaq. But this April? Itโ€™s off to a rough start. Market Mood Despite the optimistic seasonality, recent action tells a very different story. Just yesterday, the markets saw a sharp selloff that rattled investors: Dow Jones: down 3.98% Nasdaq: down 5.97% S&P 500: down 4.84% S&P 500 (.SPX) These are not monthly corrections โ€” they are major single-day losses, and they come amid rising fears around Trumpโ€™s tariff policie
Second-Best Month Fails? Whatโ€™s Your April Trade Plan in a Volatile Market?
avatarAqa
04-02
๐ŸŽ‰The three major US stock indexes did not waver under Trumpโ€™s tariff policy. They are presently on the rise. That shows the โ€œApril Effectโ€ rally in full play. Load more on the antifragile portfolio with bonds, gold, Swiss franc and Japanese Yen. Do invest with care and due diligence. Good luck. ๐Ÿ€
avatarAqa
04-02
All the three U.S. stock indexes are down have been down. I expect them to continue their struggle in the sea of red today. But April has been historically the second-strongest month for the three major US stock indexes. And the month of April in post-election years has consistently been among the top-performing months. President Trumpโ€™s tariff pressures will lead to further declines in the first few days of April. Then the โ€œApril Effectโ€ rally might kick in. With the extreme fear factor persisting in the market, one should invest carefully. Trying to profit from the unknown and carrying out antifragile trades is extremely dangerous. Do remember to do due diligence before each trade. Good luck to all Tiger investors. Thanks @Tiger_comment
I'm still a new-ish-bie investor. my strategies: In the US market: - Focus on defensive growth sectors like information technology and healthcare. - Avoid cyclical sectors that may be directly impacted by the tariffs. - Consider short-term hedging tools like gold and US Treasury bonds.
avatarMHh
04-02
I think the โ€˜April effectโ€™ will be eroded by trumpโ€™s tarring pressures. Afterall, the world hates trade wars and investors hate uncertainty. Trump threatens tariffs again and again as his negotiation wild card but does not commit to them or may u-turn once the country relents on their own tariffs for American goods. The fear will go on as long as uncertainty exists and the wars donโ€™t end as trump promised. I wouldnโ€™t consider antifragile trades as they may also reverse unexpectedly as long as the trump news subsides or both countries can real a new deal or lowered tariffs for both sides. I would prefer to watch and buy good stocks at a discount. @SPOT_ON @rL
avatarantiti
04-02

Goldman Sachs Slashes S&P 500 Forecasts: Is 5300 on the Horizon?

Goldman Sachs Slashes S&P 500 Forecasts Again Amid Tariff TensionsAfter a flurry of soft economic data, US stocks closed out last week with a 2% drop as investors reevaluate their assumptions about the economy. Goldman Sachs officially slashed its  $S&P 500(.SPX)$ forecasts for the second time this month, citing higher tariffs and growing recession risks. The bank now expects the index to dip to 5,300 over the next three months, before rebounding to 5,700 by year-end and 5,900 in 12 months.The new year-end target marks a sharp downgrade from the earlier 6,200 and stands just 2% above where the index closed on Friday, putting it among the lowest forecasts on Wall Street, 
Goldman Sachs Slashes S&P 500 Forecasts: Is 5300 on the Horizon?

Tiger Weekly Insights: 2025/03/24โ€”2025/03/30

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Asset Management II. Key Market Themes i. PCE Commentary: Expected Data Triggers Predictable Market Sell-Off Last Friday, the U.S. February PCE inflation data unsurprisingly surged again. The core PCE rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations. Consequently, the three-month and six-month annualized moving averages of core PCE reversed upward to 3.58% and 3.08% respectively, once again moving further away from the Federal Reserve's long-term 2% inflation target. Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Asset Management Meanwhile, U.S. household personal income rose by 0.8% month-on-month, significantly exceeding expectations; however, personal spending growth was only 0.4%, falling
Tiger Weekly Insights: 2025/03/24โ€”2025/03/30
avatarMrzorro
04-02
To be honest, I hope the market will be rebound by April, but it seems like not that positive ( small rebound ?). I think it will be a bearish market for quite sometime....let's see...
avatarShyon
04-02
April has historically been a strong month, and with extreme fear in the market, a rebound could be likely. Fear-driven sell-offs often create buying opportunities, but tariff uncertainties and inflation risks make it unclear if weโ€™ve hit bottom. Iโ€™m cautiously optimistic while watching macro trends. The tariff situation is a major risk. If the worst-case scenario unfolds, volatility could intensify, dragging markets lower. However, if investors grow desensitized to tariff news, temporary recoveries may follow. The key is whether tariffs remain a persistent concern or fade into the background. An antifragile approach seems smart in this environment. Gold, Treasuries, and defensive currencies offer hedges against volatility, while Buffettโ€™s strategy of holding strong companies is proving re
 @Universeๅฎ‡ๅฎ™ @GoodLife99 @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT @rL @HelenJanet @Shyon @Aqa @koolgal @LMSunshine Historically, since 1971, April has been the second-strongest month for the three major US stock indexes. Additionally, in post-election
avatarECLC
04-01
It may be different this April as traders are "tariffied". Watch opportunity to buy the dip when market enter extreme fear.
Replying to @Barcode:๐Ÿ™๐Ÿผ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿผ๐Ÿ™๐ŸผThanks for sharing your wonderful insights BC! ๐Ÿ’œ//@Barcode:๐Ÿ—“๏ธ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ“‰ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Historically, April hands us a bounce, but donโ€™t get too comfortable. By late April to early May, recession signals will hit with precision, following a well-worn pattern. That drop is not just a dip, it is a dive that will extend through to October. Iโ€™lll be selling into strength & flipping short as we shift into May. For more detail, , check out my $DIA post
avatarTBI
04-01

#TBI2025[15]: TEM, SHOP, TWLO

Hi everyone! Disclaimer: The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBIโ€™s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended
#TBI2025[15]: TEM, SHOP, TWLO
Trump effect. Now all waiting Trump latest tariff news
avatarAh_Meng
04-01
Replying to @Barcode:Ooopppsss... didn't realise you had shared before me! I didn't notice it... had tagged you. ignore or indulge me, up to you [Tongue] [Facepalm] I hear your msg... [Sly]//@Barcode:๐Ÿ—“๏ธ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ“‰ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Historically, April hands us a bounce, but donโ€™t get too comfortable. By late April to early May, recession signals will hit with precision, following a well-worn pattern. That drop is not just a dip, it is a dive that will extend through to October. I
avatarAh_Meng
04-01

Tariff or April effect, does it even matter?

It depends on who you asked. For tariff , with all the media looking in and hyping up, that seems to suggest an affirmative. As for April effect, historical data seems to suggest so, since 72% of the time, it ends up higher on average. Why? It is normally related to tax day.  As end April is tax time in US, it has been speculated that more people put money into their IRA to reduce their tax bills. IRA cash often than not find their way into stock market, boosting the market. If you ask me, now that I am no longer a trader, I don't really pay much attention. For an investor, near term doesn't affect much unless an unrecoverable crash is coming in that particular time period. The question for me rather is how do I protect my ๐Ÿ’ฐ while still have a foot in the market. As I m
Tariff or April effect, does it even matter?
Invest in Global Markets with Tiger Brokers!
Open App