💰Top SPX & DJI Gainers in Q125 with Q2 Outlook Insights

Q1 Global Assets Recap

1. Click to see the Chart 1: Q1 2025 Global Asset Highlights

The first quarter of 2025 has already passed, and the performance of global major asset classes has shown a diversified trend.

The three major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply in the first quarter, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ down 4.59%, the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ down 1.28%, and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ down 10.42%.
Meanwhile, Hong Kong stocks performed well, driven by China's artificial intelligence industry. The $HSI(HSI)$ and the $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ rose by 15.25% and 20.74%, respectively.
European stocks also showed strong performance, with the Euro Stoxx 600 Index up 5.79%, the $Global X Dax Germany ETF(DAX)$ up 11.32%, the French CAC 40 Index up 5.55%, and the $INVESCO FTSE RAFI UK 100 UCITS ETF(PSRU.UK)$ up 5.01%.
In addition, $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ , as a safe - haven asset, performed outstandingly in the first quarter, with the COMEX gold futures main contract price surging by 19%, marking the best quarterly performance since 1986.
Emerging market stocks outperformed developed markets. The U.S. tech sector saw significant declines, while the Indian stock market rebounded. In the bond market, the yields of government bonds in major global economies generally rose. In Europe, the 10 - year bond yields increased significantly due to defense spending plans and fiscal expansion plans.
In the commodity market, gold prices continued to climb to new historical highs. $Copper - main 2505(HGmain)$ prices extended their upward trend, $WTI Crude Oil - main 2505(CLmain)$ prices rose slightly, and soybean prices fell significantly.

2. Click to see the Chart 2: Q1 Returns of S&P 11 Sectors

Despite the overall US market's struggles, seven of the 11 S&P sectors have managed to stay in positive territory on the year, with Energy and Healthcare leading the winners. Meanwhile, Consumer Discretionary has faced the steepest losses, closely followed by Technology.

3. Click to see the Chart 3: Q1 Returns of Top 10 US Companies

As for specific stocks, the biggest performance tone of the US stock market in Q1 is that large-cap stocks collectively pulled back.

See the small chart, except for $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ , which rose 17.49%, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ranked last with a drop of 35.83%. Chip leaders $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Broadcom(AVGO)$ fell 19.29% and 27.78% respectively. In addition, giants such as $Microsoft(MSFT)$, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$, and $Apple(AAPL)$ all fell by more than 10%.

4. Chart 4: Q1 Top 10 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Gainers

However, there are also some winners worth mentioning in the important indexes.

Looking at the top ten stocks with the highest gains in the S&P 500 index, $CVS Health(CVS)$ price rose by more than 50%, $Philip Morris(PM)$ and $Newmont Mining(NEM)$ rose by about 30%, and other stocks such as $AT&T Inc(T)$ , $Consolidated Edison(ED)$ , $Cencora Inc.(COR)$ , $Exelon(EXC)$ , $Brown & Brown(BRO)$ , and $Arthur J. Gallagher(AJG)$ rose by more than 20%.

Among them, the stock price of $VeriSign(VRSN)$ , which Buffett newly built in Q4, rose by 22.67%. Sure enough, believing in the investing legend will not be wrong.

From an industry perspective, most of these top 10 stocks belong to defensive sectors. Defensive stocks usually perform more stably during economic instability because the demand for the industries they are in (such as healthcare, consumer goods, etc.) is relatively unaffected by economic cycles.

5. Chart 5: Q1 Top 10 $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Gainers

Among the Dow components, the top 10 winners in Q1 are: $Amgen(AMGN)$ , $Chevron(CVX)$ , $Coca-Cola(KO)$ , $Johnson & Johnson(JNJ)$ , $3M(MMM)$ , $Verizon(VZ)$ , $IBM(IBM)$ and $Visa(V)$. The gains of these 8 stocks are greater than 10%, while $Travelers(TRV)$ and $McDonald's(MCD)$ are around 8%.

Q2 Institutions Forecast

The first quarter of 2025 has already passed. Here’s what investment banks think about the outlook for global major asset classes in Q2:

Stock markets in Asia, particularly in China, Singapore, Japan, and India, are viewed favorably. These markets are showing strong domestic demand momentum and growth potential.
Analyses from HSBC indicate that despite the uncertainty brought to the market by U.S. tariff policies, the competitive advantages of Asian markets remain pronounced. China’s rapidly developing tech sector is creating significant opportunities across multiple industries.
Moreover, gold, as a safe - haven asset, is gaining more prominence due to the lack of implementation of U.S. tariffs. The continuous deterioration of the U.S. dollar’s credibility and the sustained enthusiasm of global central banks for gold purchases have enhanced the appeal of gold’s value - preserving attributes.
At the same time, high - quality bonds, such as UK government bonds and investment - grade corporate bonds, are key to diversifying investment portfolios amid market volatility.
In the commodity space, crude oil prices may stabilize and rebound due to OPEC + production cuts and seasonal increases in demand. However, there is long - term pressure from oversupply.
Regarding industrial metals, copper prices have room for further increases. Supply disruptions caused by changes in policies of resource - rich countries should be monitored, especially for those with high supply concentration.
In the agricultural sector, favorable climate conditions are leading to increased supply. Slower global economic growth is causing a decline in demand for agricultural products. Pessimistic market sentiment is also exerting downward pressure on prices.

Overall, a multi - asset strategy and cross - regional asset allocation can help investors achieve a balance between risk and opportunity in the face of market uncertainties.

Here is the outlook for the performance of U.S. stocks in the second quarter of 2025:

Recession Risk and Downside Pressure: The U.S. stock market is expected to face continued downside pressure in the second quarter of 2025, which may also weigh on other developed - market equities. A U.S. economic recession seems increasingly inevitable. The comprehensive breakthroughs in China’s high - tech fields are expected to exert long - term pressure on the fundamentals of U.S. stocks. The overall deterioration of U.S. economic data in the first quarter, such as GDP contraction forecasts, weak consumption and investment, and a significant cooling of employment, highlights the risk of recession.
Earnings Growth and Cost Control: Although the overall performance of U.S. stocks in the Q2 earnings season is expected to exceed expectations, revenue growth is likely to be slightly below expectations. The source of earnings outperformance may primarily be cost control. Since the fourth quarter of last year, U.S. - listed companies have been working hard to cut day - to - day operating expenses.
Focus on Growth Stocks: Citigroup advises investors to focus on growth stocks, especially those growth - oriented sectors whose valuations were compressed in Q1 but whose fundamentals remain solid. The ratings of the information technology (including software and services, semiconductors and equipment), healthcare (pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences), and communication services (media and entertainment) sectors have been upgraded to overweight.
Uncertainty in the Macroeconomic Environment: Investors need to be vigilant about changes in the macroeconomic environment and their impact on the market. Adjustments in the supply and demand relationship in the labor market, changes in consumption patterns, and the uncertainty of AI technology investment are all key factors for future market volatility.
Policy Uncertainty: The policy uncertainty brought by the U.S. presidential election may affect the market. The different preferences of the two parties for industrial policies may have an impact on industries such as electric vehicles, batteries, and solar energy.

In summary, the U.S. stock market in the second quarter of 2025 may face the risk of economic recession and downside pressure, but there are also positive factors such as earnings growth and focus on growth stocks. Investors should closely monitor the macroeconomic environment and policy trends, adopt a diversified investment strategy, and pay attention to risk management.

In the first month of the second quarter, we still need to pay most attention to Weekly Notes (31/3/25): Watch Trump's "Liberation Day" & Jobs Report

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