Fed Keeps Unchanged: Are 3 Rate Cut Estimates Too Optimistic?

After a two-day policy meeting, the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it would keep the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Is the market being too optimistic? As the broader market begins to pull back, what impact will this week’s FOMC meeting have?

avatarAnong
05-20
Nice Tiger trade  bagus
avatarFONZA
05-15
I still don't know how to use this add, how them make money? How to get money from where?
avatarSpiders
05-09

Fed Keeps Unchanged: Are 3 Rate Cut Estimates Too Optimistic?

Following its two-day policy meeting, the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it would keep the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged, maintaining the target range at 4.25% to 4.5%. This move was widely expected, but it brings into question whether current market expectations—particularly the widely discussed three rate cuts this year—are too optimistic. From my personal standpoint, I’m neither overly optimistic nor particularly pessimistic about where rates are headed. Macro forecasting is notoriously difficult, and even central banks adjust their projections frequently in response to changing data. One concern I have is the potential inflationary pressure that could stem from tariffs under the Trump administration. Higher tariffs could push up import prices, add to cost-push inf
Fed Keeps Unchanged: Are 3 Rate Cut Estimates Too Optimistic?

US-China Talks Set to Happen This Week; China Finance Minister Stated China Will Adopt More Proactive Macro Policies [CSOP APAC Midweek Glance]

East Asia  $CSOP LOW CARBON US$(LCU.SI)$ WTD return: +0.97% LCU gained WTD in USD and gains were led by consumer discretionary, communication services and industrials by sectors and $TENCENT(00700)$ , $MEITUAN(MPNGF)$ and $BABA-W(09988)$ by individual firms. According to Bloomberg data, Tencent led Hong Kong’s share buybacks in April. Meanwhile, Meituan rose due to robust hotel bookings and travel-related orders during China’s labor day holiday. $CSOP SEA TECH ETF US$(SQU.SI)$ WTD return: +0.87% SQU rose WTD in USD and gains were primarily attributable to MD Entert
US-China Talks Set to Happen This Week; China Finance Minister Stated China Will Adopt More Proactive Macro Policies [CSOP APAC Midweek Glance]
avatarShyon
05-08

FOMC - What's our FED decision?

My Reaction to the FOMC's Latest Decision I wasn't surprised to hear that the FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%, marking their third consecutive meeting with no change. The unanimous decision, coupled with last Friday's strong April nonfarm payroll data, suggests to me that the Fed feels more comfortable holding off on rate adjustments. I think this move aligns with their cautious approach to the current economic climate. I'm also noting the Fed's acknowledgment of rising risks to both inflation and unemployment, which makes me question how long this stability can last. FOMC My Take on Jerome Powell's Comments I found Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks during the press conference quite telling—he emphasized a “wait and see” approach, stating there's no rush t
FOMC - What's our FED decision?
avatarMrzorro
05-07
FOMC Keeps Fed Funds Rate Steady, Citing Rising Risks of Unemployment, Inflation The Federal Open Market Committee kept the target fed funds rate steady at its current level of at of 4.25% to 4.5%, citing rising risks of unemployment and accelerating inflation. "Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further," policymakers said in a statement released at the end of its two-day meeting Wednesday afternoon. "The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen."  Fed Chairman Jerome Powell declined to say when policymakers can resume cutting interest rates again, noting that they will need to see evidence of what the impact from President Donald Trump's tariffs on employme
avatarkoolgal
05-07
🌟🌟🌟The Best strategy in the midst of global uncertainties is to continue to stay invested in Index ETFs such as $SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF(SPLG)$ because in the long term, they will continue to grow exponentially.  Patience and time in the markets will prevail ultimately. @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @TigerStars @CaptainTiger @TigerClub
avatarkoolgal
05-07
🌟🌟🌟The latest FOMC meeting concluded with a decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%.  This has reinforced the Feds  wait and see approach amid ongoing uncertainties such as the impact of tariffs, mixed inflation data and muted labour market changes. With interest rates holding steady, I expect short term volatility.  However the strong earnings and resilient corporate performance have already fueled an impressive rebound. @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @TigerStars @CaptainTiger
avatarToNi
05-07
FOMC Preview: Rate Cut Hopes Face a Market Test As May 2025 unfolds, all eyes are on this week’s FOMC meeting, where the big question is whether the Federal Reserve will deliver three 25-basis-point rate cuts this year. Markets currently expect the federal funds rate to hold steady at 4.25%-4.50% during this policy session, a stance bolstered by last Friday’s robust April nonfarm payroll report. The data revealed stronger-than-anticipated job growth and a stable unemployment rate, signaling economic resilience. This gives the Fed room to pause rather than rush into rate cuts. Yet, markets are still betting on 75 basis points of easing—equivalent to three cuts. Is this optimism justified, or are we in for a reality check? First, the Fed’s decision-making hinges on a delicate balance. Since
avatarHalllo
05-07
No maybe just one Or maybe a big surprise and 3 cuts who knows!!!
avatarMrzorro
05-07
Options Plays Ahead of FOMC Rate Decision Today, attention is on the FOMC policy decision . The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 99% chance the Fed will keep rates at 4.25%-4.5%, following stronger-than-expected April jobs data. While no rate change is expected, markets will react to Powell’s comments on two key issues: managing inflation risks from tariffs and signs of economic slowing. Powell faces a tough choice. If he sounds too dovish (leaning toward rate cuts), it might fail to control inflation from new tariffs. If too hawkish (keeping rates high), it could hurt economic growth. Nick Timiraos, a well-known Fed reporter, notes the central bank risks causing either a recession or stubborn inflation no matter what it does. Bloomberg analysts expect Powell to focus on fighting inflation, while
3 cuts is not possible anymore. Looking at 2 cuts [Happy]  

Unity 25Q1: Better But Still Aching

$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ reports Q1 Earnings Before Market Open on May 7​.The overall Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, particularly in terms of profit improvement, demonstrating management’s efforts during the transition period. However, the Q2 guidance was less optimistic than market expectations, and the shutdown of services in China also created headwinds for Grow Solutions revenue. Investor sentiment remains divided.​​Performance and Market Reaction​​Q1 core performance beat expectations, though ongoing adjustments to the product portfolio indicate the company is still in transition.​​Revenue​​: $435M (-5.5% YoY), primarily due to product line adjustments (portfolio reset), leading to declines in Create/Grow Solutions revenue.​​Impr
Unity 25Q1: Better But Still Aching

Stansberry Research:Why The US Dollar Will Fail in the Next 10 Years?

Source from YOUTUBESource from YOUTUBEBased on the discussion in the Stansberry Investor Hour, here are some key points explaining why the $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ might fall in the next 10 years:USD index Monthly chart, by May 6th 2026Monetary Policy and InflationMoney Printing and Inflation: Larry Leard argues that the current monetary system is under stress and is essentially broken. The government has been engaging in significant money printing to cover large and growing deficits. This money printing is almost a mathematical certainty given the current economic situation. As a result, inflation is likely to become a persistent problem. When inflation rises, the value of the dollar typically falls because it erodes the purchasing p
Stansberry Research:Why The US Dollar Will Fail in the Next 10 Years?
avatarJinHan
05-06

Fed at a Crossroads: Why Three Rate Cuts Could Still Fuel the 2024 Market Rally

The financial world held its breath as Jerome Powell stepped to the podium last Wednesday. With inflation still hovering above target and economic growth showing signs of cooling, the big question remains: Will the Fed really deliver three rate cuts this year? Despite the market's recent jitters, there's a compelling case that not only are three cuts still in play—they could be the rocket fuel that launches stocks to new all-time highs. Reading Between the Fed's Lines The latest FOMC statement was a masterclass in central bank ambiguity, but the clues are there for those who know where to look: The Dovish Undertones: Removal of "additional policy firming" language. Acknowledgment that job gains remain "strong" but are "moderating" Powell's admission that inflation doesn't need to hit 2% b
Fed at a Crossroads: Why Three Rate Cuts Could Still Fuel the 2024 Market Rally
avatarKYHBKO
05-04

Layoffs, US GDP & Tariffs - My investing muse (05May25)

My Investing Muse (05May25) Layoffs, Delinquency & Closure news UPS has revealed plans to cut 20,000 jobs across its U.S. network, while Penske Logistics will eliminate over 300 positions in Missouri. US Xpress in Chattanooga, Tennessee, has also announced 56 job cuts. - FreightWaves Forever 21 is shuttering all 354 of its leased U.S. stores on May 1, 2025. It has been in the midst of massive liquidation sales across the country; sales of up to 60% off were seen throughout April. Mazda will shut down assembly lines for some of its CX-50 production in Canada at its Huntsville, Alabama plant, the first major automaker to halt U.S. production because of the tariffs. - Pedirayudas Layoffs and bankruptcies hit multiple sectors of the supply chain throughout April, as new or soon-to-be-impos
Layoffs, US GDP & Tariffs - My investing muse (05May25)
$S&P 500(.SPX)$  The next FOMC meeting is just over five days away, and according to CME Group data, there’s a 95% probability that rates will remain unchanged. The key question now is: will Trump’s pressure or Powell’s caution ultimately shape the Fed's course? If there’s no cut this time, the next opportunity won’t come until June 18—unless deteriorating conditions force an emergency move. Despite eight consecutive days of gains in the market, the rally feels increasingly disconnected from fundamentals. I can’t quite explain the optimism, especially with more negative headlines likely in the coming month than positive ones. Most of the good news already seems priced in, leaving limited upside unless something u
avatarDr Rck
05-01
yes but rewarding a company that missed estimates for Q1 -already its shares are by over 100x valuation -seems too eager to see results coming from him who was already seeing the decline while managing TSLA even before joining DOGE; wishful thinking and unrealistic amid economic conditions that are by far getting worse: GDP negative (exports not matched by extraordinary imports due to fear of tariffs), jobless claims high, consumer confidence at thr lowest, ISM drops unexpectedly.. all these spell troubles ahead!
Half An Elon Musk Is Still Better Than None
avatarJinHan
05-01

GDP Shrinks: Market Storm Ahead or Just a False Alarm?

The US economy just flashed a warning sign - GDP contracted 0.3% last quarter. For investors, this raises the billion-dollar question: Is this the start of something ugly, or just a temporary blip in America's economic recovery? Let's cut through the noise and examine what's really happening under the hood. Breaking Down the GDP Drop: Not All Contractions Are Equal At first glance, negative GDP growth sends chills down any investor's spine. But before hitting the panic button, we need to understand what's driving this decline: Trade Imbalance Drag: Net exports subtracted a whopping 3.2% from GDP as imports surged. This reflects strong US consumer demand rather than domestic weakness Inventory Adjustment: Businesses drew down stockpiles after aggressive 2021 restocking. This accounted for
GDP Shrinks: Market Storm Ahead or Just a False Alarm?
U.S. GDP Shrinks by 0.3%: Is It Just the Beginning of a Market Downturn? The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the latest quarterly report, sparking concerns among investors and economists about whether this signals the onset of a broader market downturn. While a single quarter of negative growth does not technically constitute a recession, it raises red flags—especially amid an environment already fraught with inflationary pressures, high interest rates, and global uncertainty. Understanding the 0.3% Contraction The reported 0.3% decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reflects slowing consumer spending, reduced business investment, and a pullback in exports. The Federal Reserve’s ongoing fight against inflation through aggressive interest rate hikes has begun to cool economic activity—e
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