Pinkspider
04-02

$TSLA 1Q delivs 336.7K -13% YoY and well below WS estimates of 377K. This will push analysts to reduce FY’25 deliv estimates (currently 1,869K +4.5% YoY) and FY’25 earnings ests (currently $2.73 +12.8% YoY) as the debate intensifies whether the 1Q miss was due to Elon’s political rhetoric and DOGE actions vs consumers delaying purchase of Model Y so they could get the new refreshed version.

As we mentioned this morning in our preview: “There will be huge debate today about whether the likely 1Q delivery miss was due to Elon’s ongoing political rhetoric and DOGE activities, or the changeover to the New Model Y, which caused consumers to hold off purchases until the new version arrived. Europe 1Q delivs were down -35% YoY, with France and Germany -40% and -60% YoY respectively, while China deliveries were likely up modestly. necessary deliveries) were relatively stable. Going forward, investors will turn their attention to the production ramp of the new Model Y which appears to have solid demand, and the form factor and potential TAM increase of the new more affordable model to be unveiled at the end of 2Q.”

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