THREE KEY SIGNALS FOR 2026: šø Data center utilization: >70% = healthy; <50% = oversupply. Current: 40ā60% šø GPU rental prices: H100 rates down 20ā30% in 2025; < $2/hour signals glut šø Pilot-to-production: >15% needed for enterprise demand surge; <10% confirms mismatch The AI infrastructure race is onābut demand will decide winners and losers.
THREAD BREAKING DOWN BIG TECHāS $2T AI GAMBLE š Big Tech (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Metaā¦) is pouring billions into AI infrastructureābut current revenue is nowhere near covering costs. KEY NUMBERS: ⢠2025 Capex: ~$300ā400B planned by top 4 hyperscalers. ⢠2025ā2027 cumulative spend: $1.15T (Goldman Sachs). ⢠Debt funding: $121B issued in 2025ā4x historical average. Another $100B expected in 2026. ⢠Needed revenue: $2T/year by 2030 (Bain) vs. current ~$20B. AI revenue needs 100x growth just to break even
n the past month, $TSLA has been the best performing stock out of the MAG7. Since the Sep rate cut, TSLA has been the Top 3 performing stock in MAG7 despite having a large rally into the Fed rate cut. With TSLA returning to growth in 2026 and the potential for an AI rerating, TSLA could be one of the top performing stocks out of MAG7 in 2026.
Two extreme possibilities today: 1) breakout higher above $495 2) sharp test down to $480 or $477. The middle road is price just floats down all day to $485 and punts any big moves to next week. So far we have this delaying triangle instead of either of the (a)(b)(c) corrective waves. They can still happen, but over a longer period of time. $TSLA
November CPI (+2.7% YoY) and Core CPI (+2.6% YoY) were both much lower than expected (CPI +3.1% and Core +3.0% expected), which combined with strong $MU (+14% pre-mkt) revenue guidance last night should propel equities much higher today. Questions will arise about what adjustments were made for absence of Oct data to get to the Nov results. Nov Core CPI of 2.6% YoY was the slowest since March 2021
$TSLA closed +3.45% today slightly off the highs, but with positive CVD and continuing relative strength. At this point, we just need to let the market absorb the previous buyers in the upper $400s. Once that sell pressure finishes, we should see TSLA start testing $500 given macro holds up. The overall trend remains bullish.
šØ BANK OF JAPAN INTEREST RATE DECISION IS COMING TOMORROW. The market expects 98.4% odds of a 25 bps rate hike. Hereās what happened when BOJ raised rates in the past. July 31, 2024: BOJ raised rates to 0.25% Bitcoin dropped 26% in 8 days Jan 24, 2025: BOJ raised rates to 0.50% Bitcoin dropped 25% in 20 days Now BOJ is expected to raise rates to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995. Just like the past, markets could see some downside around the decision. But if you look at the chart, every BOJ driven BTC dump was followed by a strong recovery and new ATH.
BREAKING: November CPI inflation unexpectedly FALLS to 2.7%, below expectations of 3.1%. Core CPI inflation FALLS to 2.6%, below expectations of 3.0%. This marks the biggest drop in US inflation since March 2025. Inflation was WELL below expectations in November.
BREAKING: November CPI inflation unexpectedly FALLS to 2.7%, below expectations of 3.1%. Core CPI inflation FALLS to 2.6%, below expectations of 3.0%. This marks the biggest drop in US inflation since March 2025. Inflation was WELL below expectations in November.
CPI YOY +2.6% VS +3% EXPECTED CORE CPI YOY +2.7% VS +3% EXPECTED oh my goodnessā¦these are massive beats to the downside inflation is not the problem here, itās the labor market inflation low, growth up, rates coming down is your macro formula for a stronger 2026
US Jobless Claims -13K To 224K In Dec-13 Wk; Survey 225K US Dec-6 Week Continuing Claims +67K to 1,897,000 US Dec-6 Week Jobless Claims Revised to 237K
$TSLA What we know: ⢠5% off ATH and sentiment flipped instantly ⢠Lots of emotional damage from last year ⢠Trend is still up What we donāt know: ⢠If sellers press from here ⢠Where support wants to live ⢠Whether the 459 gap fills One candle ā a thesis. Patience.
The remarkable thing about $TSLA rally is after Kimbal and Cathieās selling and on a red market day. Institutions is loading to all time high as sentiment is pushing $500-$520. Hopefully Elon and I believe he will pull a bunny out in Jan to neutralise the weak Q1 narrative. $SPY
GOOD NEWS šØ $TSLA is actively preparing for high-volume deliveries of the Tesla Semi by hiring a key Manager to drive service operations š„ The future of heavy transport is here, and itās scaling up fast š„
$TSLA Chart Update! Every time Tesla broke out to a new ATH, it led to further near term gains. If you took the average of "the last 5 times" then it is about +52%! That should take TSLA to $745!
$TSLA Chart Update! Every time Tesla broke out to a new ATH, it led to further near term gains. If you took the average of "the last 5 times" then it is about +52%! That should take TSLA to $745!
$TSLA is currently in a historical squeeze and will see $520+ within the next few days⦠This is just the beginning of a major breakthrough coming in 2026 for $TSLA. These prices seen today will soon be forever gone. $620+ will be cleared by Early February.
$TSLA is currently in a historical squeeze and will see $520+ within the next few days⦠This is just the beginning of a major breakthrough coming in 2026 for $TSLA. These prices seen today will soon be forever gone. $620+ will be cleared by Early February.