$TSLA just bounced off the exact support level I’ve been watching around $420 and is up ~7.5% from last week’s low. Monthly BX is still green, bias still bullish, and I’m targeting 460 next with 550 on deck if the squeeze finally breaks.

$TSLA just bounced off the exact support level I’ve been watching around $420 and is up ~7.5% from last week’s low. Monthly BX is still green, bias still bullish, and I’m targeting 460 next with 550 on deck if the squeeze finally breaks.

$TSLA is trading ~$5 above its 2021 high. $AMZN is trading ~$20 above its 2021 high. Five years later… Either tech went nowhere… or there’s a built-in discount.

$TSLA is trading ~$5 above its 2021 high. $AMZN is trading ~$20 above its 2021 high. Five years later… Either tech went nowhere… or there’s a built-in discount.

NY FED: JANUARY INFLATION EXPECTATIONS STEADY, CREDIT OUTLOOK WEAKENS • Inflation: 1-year ahead 3.1% (down from 3.4% in Dec.); 3- and 5-year ahead steady at 3%. • Credit: Expectations for availability declined vs. December. • Labor Market: Views mostly improved. • Home Prices: Expected growth 2.9% (slightly below 3% in Dec.). • Household Finances: Less optimistic about current and future financial situations.

NY FED: JANUARY INFLATION EXPECTATIONS STEADY, CREDIT OUTLOOK WEAKENS • Inflation: 1-year ahead 3.1% (down from 3.4% in Dec.); 3- and 5-year ahead steady at 3%. • Credit: Expectations for availability declined vs. December. • Labor Market: Views mostly improved. • Home Prices: Expected growth 2.9% (slightly below 3% in Dec.). • Household Finances: Less optimistic about current and future financial situations.

• RETAIL SALES (TUES.) • NONFARM PAYROLLS and UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (WED.) • JOBLESS CLAIMS and EXISTING HOME SALES (THURS.) • CPI INFLATION (FRI.) Unemployment rate and CPI are the January numbers delayed by government shutdown. 

• RETAIL SALES (TUES.) • NONFARM PAYROLLS and UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (WED.) • JOBLESS CLAIMS and EXISTING HOME SALES (THURS.) • CPI INFLATION (FRI.) Unemployment rate and CPI are the January numbers delayed by government shutdown. 

FUTURES Green across the board — Bitcoin also just hit $72K. If last week’s sell off was just the market having a temper tantrum, then maybe we begin somewhat of a recovery after a flushout & deleveraging event on many names. Big Tech is spending $650B on capex this year and accelerating growth. That’s the story. $NVDA reporting in a few weeks may put an exclamation point on all these big tech earnings. $SPY $QQQ $IWM $BTC

FUTURES Green across the board — Bitcoin also just hit $72K. If last week’s sell off was just the market having a temper tantrum, then maybe we begin somewhat of a recovery after a flushout & deleveraging event on many names. Big Tech is spending $650B on capex this year and accelerating growth. That’s the story. $NVDA reporting in a few weeks may put an exclamation point on all these big tech earnings. $SPY $QQQ $IWM $BTC

We now have: 1. US President with a 100,000 price target on the Dow 2. New Fed Chair who is "required" to cut interest rates 3. $2,000 stimulus checks back in discussion 4. US government buying $200 billion in mortgage bonds 5. New $1.2 trillion funding bill signed into effect 6. Trump saying USD is "doing great" after -10% drop Own assets or be left behind.

Key Events This Week: 1. December Retail Sales data - Monday 2. January Jobs Report - Wednesday 3. Initial Jobless Claims data - Thursday 4. January Existing Home Sales data - Thursday 5. January CPI Inflation data - Friday 6. 5 Fed speaker events this week More government shutdown data is on the way.

Key Events This Week: 1. December Retail Sales data - Monday 2. January Jobs Report - Wednesday 3. Initial Jobless Claims data - Thursday 4. January Existing Home Sales data - Thursday 5. January CPI Inflation data - Friday 6. 5 Fed speaker events this week More government shutdown data is on the way.

US job openings are now at recession levels: US job openings dropped -386,000 in December, to 6.5 million, the lowest since September 2020. Over the last 2 months, job openings have declined -907,000, the biggest 2-month drop since March 2023. The number of available vacancies has plummeted -5.6 million since the March 2022 peak. This is now below levels seen before the pandemic in 2018 and 2019, at ~7.0 million. As a result, the ratio of available vacancies to unemployed workers is down to 0.87, the lowest since February 2021, and significantly below the pre-pandemic high of 1.24. This is also below the levels recorded during the 2001 recession. US job market weakness is accelerating.

US job openings are now at recession levels: US job openings dropped -386,000 in December, to 6.5 million, the lowest since September 2020. Over the last 2 months, job openings have declined -907,000, the biggest 2-month drop since March 2023. The number of available vacancies has plummeted -5.6 million since the March 2022 peak. This is now below levels seen before the pandemic in 2018 and 2019, at ~7.0 million. As a result, the ratio of available vacancies to unemployed workers is down to 0.87, the lowest since February 2021, and significantly below the pre-pandemic high of 1.24. This is also below the levels recorded during the 2001 recession. US job market weakness is accelerating.

JUST IN: U.S. recorded over 108,000 job cuts last month, marking the worst January since the Global Financial Crisis.

JUST IN: U.S. recorded over 108,000 job cuts last month, marking the worst January since the Global Financial Crisis.

BITCOIN BOUNCES AFTER 50% CRASH Bitcoin rebounded nearly 6% after briefly falling more than 50% from its October peak, touching near $60,000 before climbing back to around $65,700. The selloff was driven by liquidations and leveraged position unwinds, not a clear fundamental trigger. Ether and Solana also dropped sharply before recovering. Volatility has surged, ETF outflows hit $434 million, and over $2 billion in crypto positions were liquidated. Traders are now watching whether Bitcoin can hold the $60,000 level — a break could push prices into the mid-$50,000s

BITCOIN BOUNCES AFTER 50% CRASH Bitcoin rebounded nearly 6% after briefly falling more than 50% from its October peak, touching near $60,000 before climbing back to around $65,700. The selloff was driven by liquidations and leveraged position unwinds, not a clear fundamental trigger. Ether and Solana also dropped sharply before recovering. Volatility has surged, ETF outflows hit $434 million, and over $2 billion in crypto positions were liquidated. Traders are now watching whether Bitcoin can hold the $60,000 level — a break could push prices into the mid-$50,000s

$HOOD is now down ~40% since I said the bull run was likely over on Jan 4… and I still don’t think the bottom is in. Monthly BX flipped red which turns every bounce into a sell-the-news trap for me.