Goldman Sachs Slashes S&P 500 Forecasts: Is 5300 on the Horizon?

antiti
04-02

Goldman Sachs Slashes S&P 500 Forecasts Again Amid Tariff TensionsGoldman Sachs Slashes S&P 500 Forecasts Again Amid Tariff Tensions

After a flurry of soft economic data, US stocks closed out last week with a 2% drop as investors reevaluate their assumptions about the economy.

Goldman Sachs officially slashed its  $S&P 500(.SPX)$ forecasts for the second time this month, citing higher tariffs and growing recession risks. The bank now expects the index to dip to 5,300 over the next three months, before rebounding to 5,700 by year-end and 5,900 in 12 months.

The new year-end target marks a sharp downgrade from the earlier 6,200 and stands just 2% above where the index closed on Friday, putting it among the lowest forecasts on Wall Street, per Bloomberg.

Goldman now assigns a 35% chance of a US recession over the next 12 months — up from the previous 20% — warning that if history repeats, stocks could fall another 17% from current levels, down to ~4,600. Event contract platforms like Kalshi now predict a 42% chance of a US recession this year, up from ~18% in mid-January.


Trade War Begins? Will Market Drop 30% Before Bouncing Back?
The estimated tariff rates for various countries are as follows: China: 34%, EU: 20%, Vietnam: 46%, Japan: 24%, India: 26%, South Korea: 25%, Thailand: 36%, Switzerland: 31%, Indonesia: 32%, Malaysia: 24%, UK: 10%, South Africa: 30%, Brazil: 10%, Singapore: 10%, Philippines: 17%. Starting from 12:01 p.m. on April 10, China will impose a 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the United States. ---------------- Could tariffs trigger a recession trade? Will the market repeat the 2018 pattern?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • JimmyHua
    04-03
    JimmyHua
    Insightful analysis! Love the depth! 
Leave a comment
1
3