Last Week's Recap
Market Insights (7–11 April): SPX. Tends to Rebound After Sharp Two-Day Sell-Offs
The US Market - Wall Street suffered a brutal week as tariff shocks
The U.S. stock market suffered its worst week in years, primarily driven by Trump's new tariffs that far exceeded expectations, followed by strong retaliation from China and triggered fears of recession or stagflation.
The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed Friday with a market capitalization of $42.99 trillion, a two-day loss of $5.06 trillion or 10.5% compared to its market capitalization Wednesday night, when President Trump raised U.S. tariffs on imported goods. The S&P 500 nosedived 5.97% on Friday, its biggest decline since March 2020. The benchmark shed 9.09% for the week and is now off more than 17% off its February high.
The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ sank 5.5%, closing below the key 40,000 level and logging a historic milestone—the first time ever it has lost more than 1,500 points on two trading days.
The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ tumbled 10% for the week, officially entering bear market territory, down 22% from its December peak.
Fed chief Powell acknowledged that the tariffs were “significantly higher than expected” and are likely to raise inflation and slow economic growth. Still, the Fed is opting to wait for more clarity before adjusting monetary policy.
Investor fear surged to pandemic-era levels. The VIX, often referred to as the "fear index," surged 109% for the week to $45. CNN Fear & Greed Index crashed to 4, echoing sentiment last seen during the height of the COVID-19 market meltdown.
The US Sectors & Stocks - Tariffs trigger broad selloff
All 11 sectors of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ended the week in the red, with energy and financials leading the retreat as markets buckled under the weight of escalating trade tensions and retaliatory tariffs.
The energy sector plunged 13.13%, its worst weekly performance in years, as Trump’s sweeping tariffs sent oil prices tumbling and sparked fears of a global economic slowdown. Financials, another economically sensitive group, slumped 10.3%.
Technology stocks were at the epicenter of the storm, especially firms with exposure to China, where many U.S. tech giants manufacture products and generate significant sales. $Apple(AAPL)$ nosedived 13.55% after China announced a fresh round of retaliatory tariffs. According to Evercore ISI, about 80% of Apple’s production and 90% of iPhone assembly is based in China.
The semiconductor ETF posted its worst week since 2001. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) cratered 16.5%, while the $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ dropped roughly 15%. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ was among the hardest hit, sliding 14%.
The relative safehaven over the week was consumer defensive with a 2% decline. The utilities sector lost 4.5%, though generally considered a defensive sector.
Big winners among consumer defensive include potato producer $Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.(LW)$ , which surged nearly 10% last week. Retailer Dollar General (DG) set for a 7.6% weekly jump.
$DuPont de Nemours Inc(DD)$ tumbled 12.8% on Friday and set a 20% loss for the week, as China’s market regulator said Friday launched an antimonopoly probe into DuPont’s China operations.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ delivered 336,681 vehicles in Q1, down 13% vs. a year earlier and the worst quarterly performance since Q2 2022. That was well below sharply-lowered forecasts. Tesla shares dropped 9.5% last week.
Hong Kong Market - $HSI(HSI)$ slumped for fourth straight week
The Hong Kong stock market was closed for Friday trading to avoid a turbulent day. Still, the benchmark HSI marked a 2.5% loss over the four-day trading week, marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline as intensifying U.S.-China trade tensions weighed heavily on sentiment.
Export-heavy companies led the downturn. Techtronic (0669.HK)which derived 76% of its 2023 revenue from North America—plunged 12% to HK$82.20. Shenzhou International (2313.HK), a key apparel supplier for Nike, dropped 14% to HK$53.10, while Lenovo Group (0992.HK) shed 7.8% to HK$9.83.
Xiaomi (1810.HK) tumbled 9.5%, as a fatal crash involving one of its EVs sparked investor concerns about product safety and regulatory scrutiny.
Morgan Stanley said it saw a downside risk to its forecast for gross domestic product growth of 4.5 per cent in China this year. “Elevated levels of policy uncertainty will weigh on corporate confidence and consequently capex and trade,” said analysts led by Chetan Ahya at Morgan Stanley in a report on Wednesday. “Overall, the growth drag this time could be greater than in 2018-19.”
Singapore Market - $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ sank 3.7%
Singapore stock market slided last week, with the Straits Times Index dropping 3.7%. The US imposed a 10% baseline global tariff to Singapore, while applying a lower tier to Singapore, still rattled investors in the trade-reliant city-state.
Prime Minister Lawrence Wong on Friday (Apr 4) acknowledged the outsized impact the tariffs could have on Singapore’s open economy, warning that Singapore is likely to feel the hit more acutely than others despite receiving the lowest tariff bracket.
Both official and private-sector forecasts for Singapore’s full-year growth may be cut. The official GDP growth forecast may be downgraded from the current range of between 1% and 3%, as the situation has “turned out to be worse” than expected when the projection was made, Minister for Trade and Industry Gan Kim Yong told reporters on Thursday (Apr 3).
Australian Market - $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ entered correction territory
The ASX 200 took a sharp 4% dip this week, closing at 7,667.80 on Friday, marking a correction after falling more than 10% from its February peak.
The announcement of new tariffs triggered a shift in market sentiment, with Australian bond traders now pricing in four interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia—a significant jump from the two cuts anticipated before the tariff news.
Energy stocks bore the brunt of the turmoil, particularly after OPEC+ surprised the market by announcing a threefold increase in supply starting in May. This decision drove Brent crude prices down by more than 6% in one session. Woodside (ASX: WDS), a leading Australian energy stock, plummeted 9.1% to $20.43.
Companies most exposed to tariffs, as well as technology stocks and banks, also faced heavy losses as investor sentiment soured.
The Week Ahead
Macro Factors - Trade tensions
This week, investors will closely monitor developments in global trade tensions. Markets are also bracing for potential reciprocal tariffs from other nations in response.
On the economic front, the spotlight will be on March's Consumer Price Index (CPI) due Thursday. Economists are forecasting a 2.6% year-over-year rise, slightly down from February’s 2.8%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to climb 3%, easing from 3.1% the prior month.
Additional focus will be on the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Sunday evening, retreating along with global markets after demonstrating relative resilience during last week’s selloff.
Earnings
The first quarter earnings season gets underway this week, with major banks leading the charge. For investors, the focus goes far beyond the numbers — it’s all about the guidance. Given this, what companies say about their outlooks for the rest of 2025 will be in particular focus.
While Q1 results won’t yet reflect the full impact of the new tariffs, analysts have already started trimming expectations. According to FactSet, Q1 earnings estimates have been cut by 4.2% in recent weeks.
Despite the markdowns, consensus still calls for a 7% year-over-year increase in S&P 500 earnings for the quarter — and a robust 11.3% full-year growth in 2025. But with tariff-related risks rising, how long those projections hold remains to be seen.
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