Market Insights (7–11 April): SPX. Tends to Rebound After Sharp Two-Day Sell-Offs

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Tiger_James Ooi
04-07

 Weekly: What to know after stocks' worst week since 2020?

Source: https://finviz.com/, Data as of April 7th 2025Source: https://finviz.com/, Data as of April 7th 2025

Things you should know before starting your week

1) Potentially promising and swift countermeasures to U.S. tariffs may help avert a worst-case tariff scenario.

  • Most countries—excluding China—have not announced plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on U.S. imports. In fact, several nations, including Vietnam, India, and Israel, have reportedly expressed a willingness to engage in new trade negotiations

 

Countries Responding Positively to U.S. Trade Moves:

  • Vietnam, India, and Israel are reportedly in discussions for new trade agreements.

  • The EU Trade Chief has held discussions with U.S. trade representatives.

  • Negotiations to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) have commenced a year ahead of schedule.

 

A Possible Best-Case Scenario:

  • A blanket 10% tariff may be applied to most countries following successful trade renegotiations, while higher tariffs on countries like China could remain in place for the longer term.

  • The additional tariff revenue could potentially be used to lower personal and corporate income taxes, partially offsetting negative effects of tariffs

 

2) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Tends to Rebound After Sharp Two-Day Sell-Offs

  • The recent 10% panic-driven sell-off over two days marks one of the worst two-day declines in the history of the S&P 500.

  • Since 1950, there have only been five other instances where the index dropped more than 10% over two consecutive trading days. Historically, these events have been followed by rebounds, with average returns of 7.9% over 1 month, 6.6% over 3 months, 15.8% over 6 months, and 32.6% over 12 months.

  

Source: CarsonSource: Carson

Source: CarsonSource: Carson

3) No Fed Put as Recession Not Yet in Fed’s Forecast

  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell has not signaled any near-term rate cuts, reiterating that the Fed is not currently predicting a recession—despite various research houses assigning higher probabilities to such outcome.

  • Powell’s comments largely disappointed investors and contributed to further market declines on Friday night, alongside concerns over China’s retaliatory measures.

Conclusion:

  • It remains unclear when, or if, any new trade agreements will be finalized. In the meantime, ongoing tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on investor sentiment and leaves markets vulnerable to sharp sell-offs.

  • Investors may prefer to wait for greater clarity on the trade front before committing to their investment plans.

  • That said, valuations for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 are currently not demanding. Long-term investors may consider gradually accumulating exposure through broad-market ETFs such as SPY $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , IVV $iShares Core S&P 500 ETF(IVV)$ , VOO $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ (S&P 500), and QQQ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ (Nasdaq-100) to capture potential market recovery.


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