China invented gunpowder and spaghetti. Most people think they will concede and make a deal with President Trump:
But, this is a big mistake.
1. Tariffs Haven’t Worked Before
Trump tried tariffs back in 2018-2019, and guess what? China didn’t fold. Instead, both sides ended up with economic pain, and the U.S. consumer paid more. China has already been through this and survived. They’re not scared to go through it again.
2. They’re Less Dependent on the U.S. Now
Back in 2018, China relied a lot more on selling stuff to America. But since then, they’ve diversified — building stronger trade ties with countries in Asia, Africa, and Europe. That means they’re not as desperate to keep the U.S. happy like they used to be.
3. Retaliation Tools Are Ready
China has learned how to hit back. If Trump raises tariffs, they won’t just sit quietly. They can raise their own tariffs, slow down U.S. companies in China, or even restrict exports of rare minerals the U.S. needs. Basically, they’ve got leverage too, and they’re ready to use it.
4. They’re Focused on Self-Reliance
China has a national strategy called “dual circulation,” which means they want to rely more on their own economy (local demand, tech, and supply chains) rather than on the U.S. So, if tariffs go up, they’ll just double down on doing things their own way.
5. Tech War > Trade War
The real fight now is technology, not just trade. The U.S. wants to stop China from catching up in AI, chips, and semiconductors. China sees this as a long game and knows giving in on tariffs won’t stop the tech restrictions — so why even bother?
6. Trump’s Pressure Unites China
Ironically, when Trump goes hard on China, it strengthens Chinese nationalism. The government can rally the people by saying, “Look, the U.S. is trying to bully us again.” That makes it even harder for China to back down, because now it’s personal.
7. They Can Wait Trump Out
China plays the long game. They know U.S. politics changes fast — elections every 4 years, policy flip-flops. So they might just stall, drag things out, and wait for a different president rather than give Trump a win.
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