The tariff exemptions for smartphones, computers, and chips, announced on April 12, 2025, are a significant relief for Apple and Nvidia, as they avoid the 125% China tariff and 10% global baseline tariff on key products. This covers roughly $390 billion in U.S. imports, including $101 billion from China, based on 2024 trade data.

For Apple, which relies heavily on Chinese manufacturing, the exemption prevents potential price hikes (e.g., iPhones projected at $2,300) that could have hurt sales and margins. Nvidia benefits as its AI chips and related components, mostly made in Taiwan , dodge costly levies, supporting its data center and AI infrastructure growth.

2030 with stable tariffs and diversification, implying 10% annualized returns. Nvidia’s growth, tied to AI dominance, could push shares to $200 (split-adjusted), but tariff escalations or China bans could halve upside.

Supply Chain Shift Effects

China Exit: Apple targets <50% China production by 2030, with India (40%), Vietnam (20%), and Mexico (10%) absorbing capacity. Nvidia aims for 30% non-Taiwan fabrication, leveraging TSMC’s Germany, Japan, and Arizona plants. This reduces China risk but doesn’t eliminate it—China retains 20% of Apple’s component supply and Nvidia’s assembly.

Cost Stabilization: By 2030, India’s ecosystem could rival China’s, cutting Apple’s diversification premium to 2–3%. Nvidia’s global fabs may lower costs 5% via scale, but U.S. labor and energy costs keep margins 10% below Taiwan’s peak efficiency.

Innovation and Resilience: Diversification frees R&D budgets. Apple’s $30 billion annual R&D could accelerate AI phones and wearables, capturing 25% of the AR market by 2035. Nvidia’s $10 billion R&D supports AI leadership, with 60% data center share, assuming no major supply shocks.

New Risks: India’s political volatility and Vietnam’s infrastructure gaps could disrupt 10–15% of Apple’s output. Nvidia’s Taiwan reliance (50% by 2030) risks escalation—modeled 10% disruption probability by 2035. Local competitors (e.g., India’s Tata in tech) may challenge Apple’s dominance.

Stock Impact: Apple’s valuation could hit $5 trillion by 2035 with diversified supply chains and new products, but regional risks temper growth to 8% CAGR. Nvidia’s $4 trillion potential hinges on AI and automotive wins, but Taiwan exposure and tariff costs could cut returns to 10% CAGR.