US Market Insights (21–25 Apr): S&P 500 Is Not in a Bear Market—Just Yet

S&P 500 Remains Weak Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Earnings Growth Concerns

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 declined by 1.49% and 2.31% respectively last week.
Key market movers included: $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ (-8.5%), $Microsoft(MSFT)$ (-5.3%), $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ (-24.3%), $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ (-6.6%), $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ (-6%), $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ (+14.7%), $Netflix(NFLX)$ (+6%), Costco (+3.2%), and $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ (+5.9%).
Notable earnings this week:

Tuesday:$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , $Lockheed Martin(LMT)$

Wednesday:$Boeing(BA)$ ,$AT&T Inc(T)$ ,$IBM(IBM)$ $Lam Research(LRCX)$

Thursday:$American Airlines(AAL)$ , $Intel(INTC)$ , $Alphabet(GOOG)$

Key Economic Events This Week:

21–26 Apr: IMF Meetings
Wednesday: Manufacturing and Services PMI
Thursday: Weekly Unemployment Claims
Friday: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Things You Should Know Before Starting Your Week:

1) S&P 500 Is Not in a Bear Market—Just Yet

A bear market is typically defined as a drop of at least 20% from a recent peak. So far, the S&P 500 has declined by 18.9% from its February 2025 high—so it’s not in a bear market just yet.
I believe more panic could emerge if the S&P 500 eventually falls more than 20% below its 2025 peak.

· Recessions often trigger bear markets. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)—the official authority for determining U.S. recessions—has not declared that the U.S. economy is currently in a recession.

· There have been instances, such as from January to July 1980 and from July 1990 to March 1991, where the market fell less than 20% during a recession.

· This implies the U.S. may already be in a recession, despite the S&P 500 having fallen only 18.9% from its peak—just under the 20% mark commonly used to define a bear market.

2) Semiconductor Companies Warn of Revenue Losses Amid Tariffs and Export Controls

Semiconductor firms have begun issuing warnings about declining revenue due to tightening export controls and newly imposed tariffs. As a result, semiconductor stocks may experience increased volatility in the near term.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ : Expects a $5.5 billion charge related to unsold H20 chips and associated inventory, following the abrupt halt of exports to China.
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ : Anticipates an $800 million impact from the latest export restrictions, primarily affecting sales of its MI308 GPUs.
$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ CEO Peter Wennink warned that tariffs could negatively affect ASML and the broader semiconductor supply chain, particularly if the U.S. imposes levies on imported equipment, components, or tools.
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ : Revenue from China declined to 7% of total sales, down from 9% a year ago, as the company faces increasing headwinds from U.S. policy actions.

3) IMF Expected to Downgrade Global Growth Forecast on Tuesday

· The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will revise its global economic growth projections downward in response to rising trade tensions and significant shifts in the global trading landscape, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva announced on Thursday.

· She added, “Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns — but not a recession.”

4) Death Cross in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Signals Potential Weakness

The S&P 500 formed a death cross on 14 April 2025, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average—a bearish signal in technical analysis that suggests potential further downside.
Despite this technical damage, the index remains above the 4,805 level (the 50% Fibonacci extension), and is currently trading at 5,282.
The S&P 500 is now trading within a range defined by the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci extension levels—5,556 and 5,115, respectively.
Crucial support levels include 5115,4805,4495,and 4111.
According to Bloomberg consensus, analysts have revised their year-end target for the S&P 500 down to 6,047, from the previous projection of 6,539 made in March.

Source: Tiger Brokers, 21 Apr 2025

Source: Bloomberg

Conclusion:

Despite signs of tariff de-escalation—including a 90-day tariff pause and ongoing negotiations—the U.S. equity market remains weak amid lingering uncertainties around tariffs, inflation, recession risks, and concerns over earnings growth.

The anticipated GDP downgrade by the IMF, along with scheduled speeches from several Fed officials this week, could add to market volatility. Additionally, earnings announcements from Tesla (Tuesday) and Alphabet (Thursday) may further amplify market swings.

Valuations for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 are currently not excessive. Long-term investors may consider gradually building exposure through broad-market ETFs such as $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , $iShares Core S&P 500 ETF(IVV)$ , $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ ,$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ to capture potential upside from a market recovery.

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Modified in.04-21

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