Tesla Needs a Win: What Should We Focus on Tesla Earnings Tonight?

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04-22
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$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is down 43% year-to-date, and heading into its earnings report, it’s once again hovering near the critical $220 level.

According to FactSet, analysts expect an adjusted EPS of $0.43 and revenue of $21.45 billion. But the actual numbers in the report might not move the stock much—because Tesla's Q1 delivery numbers released on April 2 have already shaped expectations around revenue and profits.

So what could really move the stock?

The earnings call: especially how Musk addresses these key issues:

  1. When will Musk step down from DOGE?

  2. When will the low-cost vehicle be launched?

  3. Is robotaxi still on track for launch this year?

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives stated:

It's time for Musk to step back from DOGE and return as Tesla's full-time CEO.”

Recently, several international media outlets reported that Musk might, for the first time, publicly reveal his timeline for stepping away from DOGE during the earnings call.

Has the Core Auto Business Bottomed Out After the Q1 Delivery Miss?

Tesla delivered 336,681 vehicles in Q1, missing consensus by 12.24%. It produced 362,615 vehicles, missing by 7.22%. It’s clear that the existing product lineup and Tesla’s brand strength alone are no longer enough to drive sales.

The market is now hoping Tesla will deliver on its promise to launch a more affordable model in the first half of the year.

Bull Case

Some analysts believe the Q1 delivery miss was due to ramp-up challenges for the refreshed Model Y. As production stabilizes and cheaper new models (e.g. Model 2) are introduced, Tesla's delivery volume could rebound quickly.

Bear Case

If the affordable model and the Cybertruck fail to attract buyers, the core auto business could continue to decline. Reuters reported last Friday that Tesla has delayed production of its budget-friendly car—including a stripped-down version of the best-selling Model Y in the U.S.—by several months.

Can “AI Company” Tesla Launch Full Self-Driving in June?

Wall Street estimates Tesla’s automotive gross margin may hit a low point in Q1.

Today, Tesla China announced a new five-year 0% interest financing deal for the refreshed Model Y. As Tesla continues offering incentives to boost sales, the pressure on margins may persist.

Even after a 40% plunge, Tesla’s trailing PE ratio remains high at 109. This lofty valuation reflects the market’s positioning of Tesla as an AI company. For now, the most valuable AI application to Tesla’s revenue is Full Self-Driving (FSD).

Musk has pledged to roll out a driverless taxi service in Texas in June, and later this year in California.

  1. So, will Musk deliver key FSD rollout details this time, or just continue painting a rosy picture?

  2. Can Tesla replicate its post-earnings rally from April last year, when the stock jumped 14% that week?

  3. With sentiment already so pessimistic, is it time for a rebound?

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Tesla on the Way to Break $300 as Robotaxi Relaxes?
Tesla is racing toward its planned robotaxi debut in June, with hundreds of test drivers quietly laying the groundwork across Austin. Tesla denies report that the EV maker is looking to replace Elon Musk ------------------ Will Tesla break out $300, the key level? Is the worst for Tesla over?
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Comments

  • Success88
    04-22
    Success88
    Win 5 Tiger-coins
    Sorry to disappoint. Tesla EV is kind of loser to China EV.
  • Cadi Poon
    04-22
    Cadi Poon
    Win 5 Tiger-coins
    FactSet的數據顯示,分析師預計調整後每股收益爲0.43美元,營收爲214.5億美元。但報告中的實際數據可能不會對該股產生太大影響——因爲特斯拉4月2日發佈的第一季度交付數據已經塑造了人們對收入和利潤的預期。
  • TimothyX
    04-22
    TimothyX
    Win 5 Tiger-coins
    特斯拉第一季度交付了336,681輛汽車,比市場預期低12.24%。生產汽車362,615輛,下降7.22%。很明顯,僅靠現有的產品陣容和特斯拉的品牌實力已經不足以拉動銷量。

    市場現在希望特斯拉能夠兌現其承諾,在今年上半年推出一款更實惠的車型。

  • highhand
    04-22
    highhand
    Win 5 Tiger-coins
    focus on any new products to be launched to increase revenue and earnings per share... these show if the company is growing. if not, there are better investments
  • icycrystal
    04-22
    icycrystal
    @Aqa @koolgal @LMSunshine @rL @Shyon @GoodLife99 @Universe宇宙 @HelenJanet @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT

    $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is down 43% year-to-date, and heading into its earnings report, it’s once again hovering near the critical $220 level.

    According to FactSet, analysts expect an adjusted EPS of $0.43 and revenue of $21.45 billion. But the actual numbers in the report might not move the stock much—because Tesla's Q1 delivery numbers released on April 2 have already shaped expectations around revenue and profits.

    Musk has pledged to roll out a driverless taxi service in Texas in June, and later this year in California.

    So, will Musk deliver key FSD rollout details this time, or just continue painting a rosy picture?


    Can Tesla replicate its post-earnings rally from April last year, when the stock jumped 14% that week?


    With sentiment already so pessimistic, is it time for a rebound?


    leave your comments to win tiger coins~

  • 北极篂
    04-22
    北极篂
    即使股价已从高位暴跌四成,特斯拉目前109倍的往绩市盈率仍让人咋舌。这不是传统汽车制造商的估值水平,而是市场将其视作一家AI公司的直接体现,尤其是对其全自动驾驶(FSD)的期待。马斯克多次承诺,今年6月将在德州推出无人驾驶出租车,随后扩展至加州。但关键问题在于:这次他是否会真正拿出可落地的FSD部署细节?还是像过往一样,再画一张看似宏伟却模糊的蓝图?


    我个人认为,财报后的走势仍取决于FSD的推进进度是否足够“实”。去年的14%涨幅源于成本控制和中国市场复苏的积极信号,这次若没有实质性FSD进展,仅凭情绪修复,可能很难复制当时的强劲反弹。


    不过,从市场情绪来看,当前特斯拉空头比例高企,悲观预期已接近极致,稍有利好就可能触发“卖预期、买现实”的反弹。我会密切关注马斯克是否能兑现“六月落地”这个节点。毕竟,对于特斯拉来说,FSD不仅仅是产品,而是估值体系的核心支柱。
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