Tesla’s Bizarre Justification for Testing in Austin

Here is the most bizarre part of $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ yesterday's conference call

"I mean in very basic terms, if that -- if we're seeing an accident every 10,000 miles, well, then you have to drive 10,000 miles on average before you get in an accident or an intervention. So it's like okay. I mean we must be really -- you don't have to be very worked up by the sheer number of Teslas doing in Austin right now. We like it's going to look pretty bizarre.

There's just always a convoy of Teslas going -- just going all over to Austin in circles. But yes, I just can't emphasize this enough. In order to get a figure on the long-tail things, it's 1 in 10,000, that says 1 in 20,000 miles or 1 in 30,000. The average person drives 10,000 miles in a year. So not trying to compress that test cycle into a matter of a few months. It means you need a lot of cars doing a lot of driving in order to compress that to do in a matter of a month what would normally take someone a year."

To be clear, Tesla has had the permits to do this work in California for YEARS! They could have driven millions of miles, collecting data along the way. And yet, Tesla has driven ZERO miles autonomously, even with a safety driver.

Why?

Presumably because FSD isn't safe enough to be fully autonomous, and they didn't want to reveal that data to regulators and ultimately the public.

Now, Tesla is starting from zero, and we have NO IDEA how safe its vehicles are because every FSD accident has ultimately been the driver's fault because it's a Level 2 system -- aka supervised.

What Tesla is going to launch in June is what $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Waymo and $General Motors(GM)$ Cruise launched in ~2018.

My guess is:

1. June's launch includes a safety driver.

2. The system isn't safe enough to scale, so they slow roll it, never admitting it's not safe.

3. Waymo and others scale in the meantime.

4. In ~2030 we'll look back and wonder why Tesla is behind a half dozen companies in robotaxis. $UBER and $LYFT will have thousands of autonomous vehicles on the road from 5-10 different suppliers.

The evidence is clear.

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