What is the most important concept in business and investing today?The Smiling Curve!Ever wondered why tech giants dominate and niche creators thrive while mid-sized businesses struggle? The Smiling Curve explains this phenomenon. Let’s dive in.ImageOriginating from Acer’s founder, Stan Shih, in the 1990s, the Smiling Curve illustrates value distribution across an industry. In his example, high value is found in R&D and marketing, with manufacturing in the middle adding the least value.ImageIn the digital age, this curve extends beyond manufacturing. It now represents how scale and specialization impact value creation.On the left of the curve are niche creators and specialists.They offer unique value without needing massive scale. Think indie newsletters, boutique consultancies, or spe

The last 11 days on the stock market have been nothing short of crazy. Tariffs on, tariffs off, yields down, yields up, risk off, risk on. It’s times like this that show why I’m not a day trader. And we’ve barely started earnings season.The common refrain last week was that President Trump’s capitulation on tariffs — which seems to be wavering depending on the hour — was driven by rising yields in the bond market.Markets are the fastest way to get feedback on policy changes and economic data, so it’s not surprising that investors were worried about 30-year yields rising from 4.6% to 4.9% in 3 days. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$

1. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ I continue to believe that this is the chart you need to watch at Coinbase. Trading will be profitable but volatile and non-trading growth is the company's future.Image2. $Zillow(Z)$ $Zillow(ZG)$ Let's be really clear what Zillow's deal with Buffett-owned Home Services of America means.Zillow is winning at aggreggating demand and supply has to play ball. Zillow is winning. This remains a potentially 100x opportunity over the next 20 years.The analogy is $Netflix(NFLX)$ ' deal with Showtime -- or maybe even its deal with $Walt Disney(DIS)$ .Supply (real

Why the Stock Market Is Plunging?Let’s discuss the elephant in the room. On Wednesday, President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on nearly every country in the world at levels that could cause a deep recession if fully implemented in the U.S.The tariffs weren’t a surprise, but the scale and haphazard nature was. Countries like Cambodia (49%) and Vietnam (46%) will see debilitating tariffs that will likely do little but make shirts and shoes more expensive for Americans.In addition to the impact on consumers, the tariffs make business more unpredictable and if you’re planning a new factory or building a supply chain for new products, uncertainty is bad.That’s why the market has dropped. Consumers drive the U.S. economy and if a bigger chunk of their paycheck is going to pay taxes tariffs i

Volatility and CompoundingCompounding is a cheat code for investors. If you buy companies that can compound revenue and earnings growth over decades it will drive great performance and compounding stock gains.The price we pay for high levels of compounding is volatility. That volatility is why the Asymmetric Portfolio is down over 25% in two months. But it’s a key to its outperformance long-term.Let’s go through two examples of how higher volatility portfolio will beat a low volatility portfolio over time. This example is built on two assumptions:The high volatility portfolio generates 2x the return of the low volatility portfolio each yearStocks go up more than they go downHistorically, both are true, so let’s see how this plays out long-term.You can see the high volatility portfolio outp

I think $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ made a masterful move this week. It announced the $32 billion acquisition of Wiz, the cloud security firm.I’m not a cybersecurity or cloud security expert, so I won’t play on here. Everything I’ve read is this is a high price but a potentially valuable asset for Google Cloud to have in the market.What may matter most about this deal is whether or not it gets through regulators. Under the Biden Administration, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ was blocked from buying Roomba, $Spirit AeroSystems(SPR)$ couldn’t merge with JetBlue, and $Meta Platforms, Inc.(M

Last night, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars and car parts coming into the U.S. This isn’t surprising or out of left field, but the market seems to be surprised it’s now reality and not a negotiating tactic.If there’s a place to test the impact of tariffs, it’s in the auto industry. Higher costs won’t slowly be rolled out, like they may with tariffs on avocados, and vehicles are a discressionary purchase. They’ll likely hit stocker prices within the next month.What will customers do if the price of a vehicle rises $3,000 to $10,000, as some project?How will dealers and automakers adapt?It’s likely we see fewer sales because prices will go up. That said, the impact of imports will likely be lower than auto loans nearly doubling. And that didn’t cripple the industry.Ma

1. $Apple(AAPL)$ All of Apple's hardware segments are in decline.P/E ratio 35x!ImageImageImageImage2. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Does price matter?This is Microsoft's return from 1999 to 2014.This is a reminder that multiple expansion is a tailwind and multiple compression is a headwind. Image3. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Robotaxis coming in June. 245 miles between critical disengagements today means FSD only needs to improve about 1,000x in the next 3 months.Image4. $Mobileye Global Inc.(MBLY)$ One of the reasons I like Mobileye is the clear opportunity to 10x revenue.They could go from $50-$100 in revenue per vehicle to $2,500+ befor

Is Nike $Nike(NKE)$ a turnaround story?Why risk it when there are very clear growth stories from On $On Holding AG(ONON)$ and Hoka $Deckers Outdoor(DECK)$ staring us in the face?Yes, they're big brands, but they could grow 25% per year for a decade and still not be as big as Nike's shoe business is today.Image

On the internet, the power goes to the company people CHOOSE to interact with every day. $Netflix(NFLX)$ in streaming $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ in search/mail $Apple(AAPL)$ in hardware $Uber(UBER)$ in ride-sharing $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ in retail $Intuit(INTU)$ for taxesMoats don't look like they did in the 80s and 90s.Great companies are built by people who push boundaries.Sentiment is correlated with a stock's price.If you want to beat the market, buy great companies when the sentiment

A few reasons $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ stock could continue a downward spiral.1. Weak deliveries in Q1.2. No robotaxi launch in June.3. Key employees leave. This is key, but most options granted after Jan 1, 2021 are now underwater. Stock is a great employee retainer...but not when the stock is dropping.When operations don't match expectations it can be a rapid downward spiral that feeds on itself. Autonomous driving. Now robotics. Elon Musk writes a $6 billion check to Jensen Huang for chips to build xAI and Jensen turns around and destroys Tesla’s business.That's what I see at Tesla today.