Are we headed for inflation, or not?Is a recession on the horizon, or not?Are interest rates going up or down?What in the world is going on with tariffs, and will they crater the market?I could make the argument for and against all of the above. But the cognitive dissonance in the market is thinking one thing is true for one segment of the market while another thing is true for another.Either stock valuations are crazy or they're cheap. It’s not likely both.Spotify Is a Safe-Haven?I wrote the $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ Spotlight article on March 31, 2023, when Spotify was at its low. You can see that operations have recovered tremendously since then, but the stock has also gotten much more expensive. Price to sales multiple expansion — NOT re

$Apple(AAPL)$ has been one of the most successful companies on the market over the past 30 years. Since Steve Jobs returned as CEO in 1997, the stock turned $10,000 into $17.85 million! So, why did I sell all of my Apple stock last year, and why do I see this as one of the most overvalued companies on the market?I’ll get to that below.As for the market overall, trading has been up and down few weeks and has recovered to a slight gain for the year. As I wrote last week, the rubber hits the road later this year as the impact of tariffs, AI, and higher interest rates will be felt more broadly. Expect some turbulence along the way.Apple’s Disruption & Disrupting AppleApple has a big week ahead. The company’s WWDC keynote is tomorrow, and investors

Note: I wrote most of this before today’s Twitter meltdown by Musk and Donald Trump. I thought it was still relevant today, and maybe more so for investors. On with the story.Next week, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is expected to launch a fully autonomous robotaxi in the city of Austin, TX.This comes more than a decade after Elon Musk said 90% of Tesla’s miles would be autonomous.Will Tesla finally be fully autonomous? Sort of.From what we know, the City of Austin is requiring Tesla to have remote operators available at a moment’s notice. And a safety driver may be in the front seat.But if Robotaxis do indeed launch next week, it would be big news for all of autonomy. It impacts Tesla, and it impacts at least four of the biggest holdings in the Asymmetric

1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ May 8, 2025: We're raising ~$1 billion to expand internationally.June 3, 2025: We're acquiring ZAVA to expand into Europe.Look at what management says and then what the do. If the two line up, you have something.Image2. $Costco(COST)$ Over the past decade, Costco's price-to-sales multiple (13.0%) has grown faster than sales (9.0%).ImageI have a confession.I've stolen every one of my investment ideas. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ +402.2% I got from benthompson who introduced the Smiling Curve to me and whose dislike of Spotify made me explore the stock more deeply $Hims & Hers Hea

A combination of artificial intelligence, tariffs, and higher interest rates could trigger an economic crash like we've never seen.There are clouds on the economic horizon that could impact markets for years to come:Treasury yields are rising, and ratings agencies have downgraded U.S. debtStudent loan repayments and loan delinquencies have started, sucking billions of dollars from the economy and cratering the credit score of millions of borrowersTariffs are increasing the cost of nearly every product in the U.S.Layoffs are rising, and new job openings are fallingAI continues to threaten white collar and entry-level employment long-termIt’s an economic stew that could break markets.To be clear, I’m not changing my monthly investments or the companies in the Asymmetric Portfolio, but I do w

1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ If Google Cloud grows at a 25% CAGR thru 2030 and gets to a 25% operating margin it would generate $33 billion in operating profit!Image2.Mag 7P/E multiple of the Mag 7. $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Who do yo

It’s been a crazy week for the autonomous driving industry, which is central to my investment thesis in $Mobileye Global Inc.(MBLY)$ $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ $Uber(UBER)$, and to a lesser extent $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ where Waymo is pure upside.Waymo, which is completing over 250,000 commercial rides per week, is the clear leader today, and everyone else is trying to build a business model that will stand the test of time. But there are a lot of questions to answer.Will $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ launch in June in Austin? If they do, w

Some of the most popular and talked-about stocks on the market are about to get a reality check as Congress pushes through major changes to the renewable energy and electric vehicle subsidies implemented over the last decade. As part of the “Big, Beautiful, Bill”:The $7,500 EV tax credit could disappear in 2026The $4,000 used EV tax credit is likely goneThe 30% investment tax credit for solar and energy storage may be endedA new $250 tax for EV owners and $100 for all hybrid vehicle owners is included in the bill that passed the House of RepresentativesCongress is trying to eliminate states’ ability to have their own fuel standards or regulatory credit schemesCalifornia is the de facto regulator for many products because of its size, and that extends to EVs as well, with regulatory credits

What is risk in investing?We talk about risk as a knowable thing we can measure and mythologize how some people can manage risk better than others.But too often, we’re not talking about risk at all.We’re talking about something else entirely.Today, I’m going to blow up a lot of popular investing concepts that I frankly think are built on lies Wall Street and academia have told us about investing that have no basis in long-term investing.Risk vs “Risk”Here’s a dirty secret of Wall Street: When most investors use the word risk, they’re talking about volatility.Hedge fund manager Edward Thorp says in the interview below that he beat the market while taking 1/50th the risk of the market. What the hell does that even mean?When he says “risk,” what he means is volatility. His performance was les

I thought $Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$ was one of the most interesting stories on the market last week, and most observers went down the wrong path in analyzing the company.I’ll critique what we saw last week, but it’s what’s built over the next 5 years that matters for Airbnb.The company announced its biggest update in years with an updated experiences tab and the addition of services to Airbnb. Now, when you open up the app, it looks like this:The response was pretty subdued and for good reason.Experiences have been a flop in the past and most of the pre-approved services were pretty ho-hum. Hair stylists, massages, and personal chefs may be nice if you’re staying at an Airbnb to bring some of the hotel amenities to you, but I don’t think they make Airb

The streaming landscape took a turn again this week after $Walt Disney(DIS)$ announced pricing for ESPN streaming (as we expected) and Fox announced a new streaming app (a surprise).Streaming was at the heart of my Disney stock thesis, and ESPN was a big part of that. But it’s taken a long time to get ESPN streaming from announcement to release, which is still a few months away.Today, I want to go over how Disney set off dominoes that will result in Disney being the biggest streaming company in the world by the end of the decade. Once again, the “Smiling Curve” explains how this industry will play out.Where Streaming Stands TodayWe could debate who has the best content and what interface you like better, but what’s most important in streaming is ho

One of the strange dynamics on Wall Street is the conflict between the short-term nature of trading and the long-term nature of investing.The short-term mindset is easy to see.If a company misses analysts’ guess at earnings a stock will drop, even if management is demonstrating their long-term strategy is working.A new competitor entering the market can cause a stock to drop, even if the threat isn’t hurting their business. (see $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ stock when Amazon announced a telemedicine product)This short-term mindset is visible on a daily basis and it’s what gives us an advantage as Asymmetric Investors. We can take advantage of short-term blips and buy long-term potential the market is missing.But then we see times like this