The question is now do you trust the green...
Which to me actually begs the question:
"Is the worst of this behind us?"
If it is...aka $SPX 4800 was the bottom...then that doesn't mean we have to reclaim 6000 but it does mean:
- inflation story continues to put pressure for rate cuts
- earnings story has a chance to grow if we get trade deals and tariffs come down (78% of S&P companies have beat on EPS with 7.4% YoY earnings growth)
- tax cuts + deregulation still in play for increased growth
to pull this off, we have to avoid a recession.
if you think we are going into one, you probably sell into this strength.
if you think we avoid it & we see meaningful cuts, there is a chance to say 2025 continues on with the multi-year bull market trend.
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