Weekly Macro Themes - Recession is likely bullish for bonds

This week I covered the following topics:

1. Treasuries: There are multiple mixed macro signals for bonds, but what we can know is they are cheap, sentiment is bearish, and while inflation risk is an issue; recession (if happens) is likely bullish for bonds.

2. EM Fixed Income: Remain bullish given cheap valuations, mild reset in sentiment, bullish EMFX outlook (and weaker USD), monetary policy tailwinds (albeit mindful/vigilant on inflation resurgence risk).

3. Energy Stocks: Continue to see upside risks for crude oil (and cheap energy stocks), but the risks are more 2-way now (e.g. global growth downside may swamp geopolitical risk upside).

4. Gold Miners: Move tactically neutral on gold miners given the risk signals in gold (overvalued, volatility spike, sentiment/positioning peak), and troublesome technicals for miners +rapid move in valuations.

5. Agri: Remain vigilant of upside risks in agri commodity prices as investment in supply softens, weather indicators on the move, sentiment/positioning complacent; all set against an underlying uptrend.

For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:

🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!

Find out more here：
Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free trading.
💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉
💰CBA Mini Course 1: What is Cash Boost Account(CBA)?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

754

36

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":428426400682640,"tweetId":"428426400682640","gmtCreate":1745628012605,"gmtModify":1745634001374,"author":{"id":4119585876197842,"idStr":"4119585876197842","authorId":4119585876197842,"authorIdStr":"4119585876197842","name":"TopdownCharts","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c69065f7f9a5f0bb10b4a86f1e47f9fd","vip":8,"userType":8,"introduction":"Chart-driven macro research house covering global asset allocation and economics","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":664,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/381b104429792cae7f67dc1120e2458d","width":"1080","height":"1080"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/381b104429792cae7f67dc1120e2458d","width":"1080","height":"1080"}],"title":"Weekly Macro Themes - Recession is likely bullish for bonds","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>This week I covered the following topics:</p><p><strong>1. Treasuries:</strong> There are multiple mixed macro signals for bonds, but what we can know is they are cheap, sentiment is bearish, and while inflation risk is an issue; recession (if happens) is likely bullish for bonds.</p><p><strong>2. EM Fixed Income:</strong> Remain bullish given cheap valuations, mild reset in sentiment, bullish EMFX outlook (and weaker USD), monetary policy tailwinds (albeit mindful/vigilant on inflation resurgence risk).</p><p><strong>3. Energy Stocks:</strong> Continue to see upside risks for crude oil (and cheap energy stocks), but the risks are more 2-way now (e.g. global growth downside may swamp geopolitical risk upside).</p><p><strong>4. Gold Miners:</strong> Move tactically neutral on gold miners given the risk signals in gold (overvalued, volatility spike, sentiment/positioning peak), and troublesome technicals for miners +rapid move in valuations.</p><p><strong>5. Agri:</strong> Remain vigilant of upside risks in agri commodity prices as investment in supply softens, weather indicators on the move, sentiment/positioning complacent; all set against an underlying uptrend.</p><h3 id=\"id_1132117495\">For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:</h3><p>🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!</p><blockquote><p>Find out more here：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free trading.</strong></p></li><li><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/367769452580952\" title=\"💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉\" class=\"\">💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉</a></p></li><li><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/413454436958416\" title=\"💰CBA Mini Course 1: What is Cash Boost Account(CBA)?\" class=\"\">💰CBA Mini Course 1: What is Cash Boost Account(CBA)?</a></p></li></ul></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/381b104429792cae7f67dc1120e2458d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"></p><p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>This week I covered the following topics:</p><p><strong>1. Treasuries:</strong> There are multiple mixed macro signals for bonds, but what we can know is they are cheap, sentiment is bearish, and while inflation risk is an issue; recession (if happens) is likely bullish for bonds.</p><p><strong>2. EM Fixed Income:</strong> Remain bullish given cheap valuations, mild reset in sentiment, bullish EMFX outlook (and weaker USD), monetary policy tailwinds (albeit mindful/vigilant on inflation resurgence risk).</p><p><strong>3. Energy Stocks:</strong> Continue to see upside risks for crude oil (and cheap energy stocks), but the risks are more 2-way now (e.g. global growth downside may swamp geopolitical risk upside).</p><p><strong>4. Gold Miners:</strong> Move tactically neutral on gold miners given the risk signals in gold (overvalued, volatility spike, sentiment/positioning peak), and troublesome technicals for miners +rapid move in valuations.</p><p><strong>5. Agri:</strong> Remain vigilant of upside risks in agri commodity prices as investment in supply softens, weather indicators on the move, sentiment/positioning complacent; all set against an underlying uptrend.</p><h3 id=\"id_1132117495\">For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:</h3><p>🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!</p><blockquote><p>Find out more here：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free trading.</strong></p></li><li><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/367769452580952\" title=\"💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉\" class=\"\">💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉</a></p></li><li><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/413454436958416\" title=\"💰CBA Mini Course 1: What is Cash Boost Account(CBA)?\" class=\"\">💰CBA Mini Course 1: What is Cash Boost Account(CBA)?</a></p></li></ul></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/381b104429792cae7f67dc1120e2458d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"></p><p></p></body></html>","text":"This week I covered the following topics: 1. Treasuries: There are multiple mixed macro signals for bonds, but what we can know is they are cheap, sentiment is bearish, and while inflation risk is an issue; recession (if happens) is likely bullish for bonds. 2. EM Fixed Income: Remain bullish given cheap valuations, mild reset in sentiment, bullish EMFX outlook (and weaker USD), monetary policy tailwinds (albeit mindful/vigilant on inflation resurgence risk). 3. Energy Stocks: Continue to see upside risks for crude oil (and cheap energy stocks), but the risks are more 2-way now (e.g. global growth downside may swamp geopolitical risk upside). 4. Gold Miners: Move tactically neutral on gold miners given the risk signals in gold (overvalued, volatility spike, sentiment/positioning peak), and troublesome technicals for miners +rapid move in valuations. 5. Agri: Remain vigilant of upside risks in agri commodity prices as investment in supply softens, weather indicators on the move, sentiment/positioning complacent; all set against an underlying uptrend. For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below: 🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly! Find out more here： Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free trading. 💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉 💰CBA Mini Course 1: What is Cash Boost Account(CBA)?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":754,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":36,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/428426400682640","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2368,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":true,"length":1255,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/428426400682640"}