JimmyHua
04-27

Three winning days have fueled excitement, but caution is still warranted before assuming the S&P 500 will easily break 5500:

  1. Overbought Signals: Momentum is strong, but the index is nearing overbought territory. A pullback or consolidation phase could happen before any sustainable breakout.

  2. Valuations Are Stretched: At current levels, the S&P 500’s P/E ratio is back near historical highs. Without continued earnings growth, upside could be limited.

  3. Macro Risks Linger: Geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation, or a surprise Fed move could quickly reverse recent gains.

  4. Summer Volatility: Historically, the summer months bring thinner trading volumes and more volatile swings — a breakout could be harder to sustain.

5500 is within reach, but in this market, discipline beats emotion. Wait for confirmation, not just excitement.

Fed Keeps Unchanged: Are 3 Rate Cut Estimates Too Optimistic?
After a two-day policy meeting, the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it would keep the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Is the market being too optimistic? As the broader market begins to pull back, what impact will this week’s FOMC meeting have?
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