The impact of "Sell in May and go away" this year depends heavily on several factors, including economic data, corporate earnings, Federal Reserve policy, and broader investor sentiment. Let’s break this down:

Context of the Past Four Months

Recent Performance: The S&P 500’s -0.76% decline in April, though milder than March’s sharp drop, marks continued weakness. A four-month decline may suggest that much of the pessimism is already priced in.

Rebound Momentum: Recent rebounds, driven by strong earnings from major companies, could indicate underlying resilience, which might lessen the usual seasonal effect of "Sell in May."

Will the Adage Apply?

Macroeconomic Indicators: If inflation cools and the Federal Reserve signals a pause in rate hikes, it could provide a tailwind for markets, potentially nullifying the seasonal trend.

Earnings Trends: Strong earnings from key players like Microsoft, Meta, and possibly Apple and Amazon could maintain positive momentum.

Global Factors: Ongoing concerns, such as geopolitical tensions or economic weakness in other regions, could amplify selling pressure.

Strategy: Sell or Hold?

Sell into Rebound: If you believe the rebound is fragile or driven primarily by short-term optimism, taking profits now may be prudent.

Bet on a Rally: If the current environment suggests stabilisation, holding and possibly adding on dips could be more rewarding, particularly if May defies seasonal expectations due to already bearish sentiment.

Your decision should align with your risk tolerance and investment horizon. A cautious but balanced approach—reducing exposure to overvalued or speculative positions while maintaining strong core holdings—might work well in this uncertain environment.