How to view Silver’s plunge This was a liquidity and positioning unwind, not a collapse in the long-term thesis. Silver had significantly outperformed gold and became the most crowded expression of the precious-metals trade. When geopolitical risk eased and U.S. data stayed firm, silver absorbed the bulk of the deleveraging. Its higher beta means sharp drops are a feature, not a bug. The speed of the fall suggests forced selling and margin pressure, not a reassessment of structural demand. Could Silver fall to $60 or $50 $60 is plausible in a full sentiment washout, especially if real yields firm and gold consolidates. $50 would likely require a broader macro shock: a sharp USD surge, aggressive rate repricing, or a disorderly unwind across commodities. Possible, but not the base case. Bel

This looks more like a positioning and narrative shock than the start of a structural bear phase for software. What is really driving the selloff The catalyst was not earnings deterioration but perceived disruption risk. The announcement by Anthropic reframed Al from “software tailwind” to “software margin threat”, particularly for legal tech, workflow automation, fintech tooling, and parts of asset management. That narrative shift hit a sector that was already crowded, richly valued, and sensitive to duration. Once selling began, ETF and factor unwinds amplified the move. Six consecutive down sessions, coupled with sharp index-level drawdowns, suggest forced de-risking rather than fresh fundamental discovery. Does software continue to dip Near term, volatility can persist. When thematic l

Advanced Micro Devices: reset or opportunity? This looks less like the end of the Al story and more like a valuation and expectations reset. The sell-off was driven by guidance, not execution. The earnings beat confirmed solid operations, but management did not deliver the near-term Al inflection the market had aggressively priced in. With China demand removed and MI300 ramp visibility pushed out, investors recalibrated from “immediate Al winner” to “cycle participant with timing risk”. That said, calling this the end of AMD’s Al optimism is premature. Three points matter: 1. Crowded trade unwind AMD had become a consensus Al proxy outside Nvidia. When guidance failed to accelerate, positioning, not fundamentals, did the damage. A 17 percent drawdown in one session has clear capitulation c

Alphabet vs Amazon: whose earnings best prove AI monetisation? Alphabet Alphabet’s proof point is Search + Cloud. If Gemini features lift ad yield and engagement without compressing margins, and Google Cloud shows faster growth with improving operating margins, that is direct evidence AI is monetising at scale. Risk: high AI capex diluting margins if revenue lift lags. Amazon Amazon’s test is AWS. Clear signs that AI workloads are driving reacceleration in AWS growth and margin expansion would validate monetisation more cleanly. Enterprise contracts, higher attach rates, and operating leverage make AI revenue easier to attribute. Verdict • Cleaner AI monetisation signal: Amazon (AWS is a paid, usage-driven platform). • Bigger strategic payoff if it lands: Alphabet (AI defending Search mar

Here are the major developments around Alphabet Inc. ahead of its earnings release on 4 February 2026, focusing squarely on your questions about AI momentum, Google Cloud, and competitive pressures on margins. The consensus view heading into the print reflects strong fundamentals mixed with heightened expectations and execution risk.  Can AI Momentum Meaningfully Reaccelerate Google Cloud Growth This Quarter? Yes — but with important caveats. • AI-driven demand is supporting robust Google Cloud expansion. Consensus estimates before the earnings release project ~34 – 36 per cent year-on-year Cloud revenue growth in Q4, with approximately $16 billion in sales, signalling continued acceleration. This is notable given the hyper-competitive landscape against AWS and Azure.  • Cloud ba

The sharp rebound in precious metals over the last session certainly captures traders’ attention, but it does not yet constitute an unquestionable resumption of a sustained rally. The recovery reflects short-term technical dynamics, positioning adjustments and risk-off sentiment rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Here is a structured view of the factors at play. Key Drivers Behind the Bounce 1. Technical Rebound After Selloffs Gold and silver were deeply oversold after two days of aggressive declines and forced liquidations. When futures and ETF positioning gets extremely stretched to the downside, short-covering and relief buying are common. The intraday moves of +3% in gold and +5% in silver are characteristic of such rebounds. These moves alone do not guarantee a longer-term trend

Advanced Micro Devices: Guidance in Context Guidance Summary AMD reported above-consensus revenue and EPS for its latest quarter, with data-centre revenue of around $5.4 billion.  For Q1 2026, guidance was roughly $9.5 billion to $10.1 billion (midpoint of about $9.8 billion), slightly above Street expectations but down sequentially from Q4.  Market Reaction Investors focused on the sequential decline in anticipated quarterly sales as a signal that the AI hardware build-out, while intact, might be normalising after a peak cadence of orders. The stock’s downward move reflects this recalibration rather than a fundamental earnings miss.  The guidance, though slightly below the most bullish forecasts, was nonetheless in line with analyst estimates and represented a conservative

Gold and silver Possibly a buying opportunity, but not an aggressive one. The selloff was driven more by forced liquidations than weakening fundamentals. Gold’s structural support remains intact, though near-term volatility is likely. Gradual accumulation is preferable. Silver remains higher risk due to speculation. Big Tech in February Selective trimming makes sense. Underperformance points to leadership fatigue, not a broken AI story. Reducing crowded, fully valued names helps manage concentration risk while keeping core exposure. January Barometer for 2026 Supportive, but not decisive. Policy uncertainty and cross-asset volatility suggest a choppy Q1. A pullback would not rule out a constructive 2026. January earnings Solid but uneven. Guidance mattered more than beats. Markets reward

A thoughtful set of questions. January rarely tells a simple story this year. 1. Is the Gold and Silver selloff a “Golden Pit”? Possibly, but selectively and with discipline. The drawdown had all the hallmarks of forced liquidation rather than a fundamental breakdown. Structural drivers for gold remain intact, including central bank demand, geopolitical hedging and longer-term policy uncertainty. That said, after such extreme volatility, a period of consolidation would be healthy. Gradual accumulation on weakness looks more prudent than aggressive dip-buying, especially for silver, which remains far more speculative. 2. Trimming Big Tech in February? Not a wholesale exit, but some rebalancing makes sense. Big Tech is no longer uniformly cheap, and leadership has narrowed. Trimming stretche

Market Context and Recent Price Action Recent sharp sell-offs in gold and silver were among the most extreme in decades, reflecting forced liquidations, extreme leverage unwinding, and technical stresses rather than outright changes in fundamentals. Silver, in particular, saw outsized moves driven by speculative positioning in China and subsequent margin calls. Both metals then staged a strong intraday rebound, with spot gold back above $4 800 and silver reclaiming around the $83 mark.  Short-term price spikes and reversals of this magnitude often occur when markets have been stretched beyond typical trading ranges. These reversals can be driven as much by trading dynamics (positions getting flushed) as by investor sentiment.  --- Is This a Renewed Rally? Arguments in favour of a

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$   Earnings and Guidance Highlights Palantir reported Q4 2025 results that significantly beat expectations with revenue of about $1.41 billion (up ~70 per cent year-on-year) and adjusted EPS topping forecasts. The company’s strong performance was driven by both U.S. government and commercial segments.  Management issued upbeat guidance for 2026, forecasting full-year revenue of approximately $7.18–7.20 billion (around ~61 per cent growth) and guiding first-quarter revenue ahead of consensus.  After the results the stock rallied meaningfully in after-hours and pre-market trading, reversing some earlier weakness this year.  Drivers of Growth Demand remains very strong from U.S. government an

My call for Friday’s close (post-earnings): $140–$160 is the highest-probability outcome. Why: The market is already pricing a large move. A clean beat on revenue and EPS is likely, but to push above $160, Palantir needs clearly upgraded 2026 guidance and strong commentary on US commercial AI momentum. A “beat but guide inline” outcome usually caps upside. Below $140 only comes into play if guidance disappoints or macro risk-off intensifies. Will Palantir stage a comeback? Yes, but it is more likely a grind, not a vertical move. Fundamentals remain intact and the sell-off looks positioning-driven, not thesis-breaking. Is $200 easy to hit in 2026? No. Possible, but not easy. It requires sustained commercial growth acceleration, expanding margins, and a supportive macro for high-multiple A

Is this short-term deleveraging or a deeper trend shift? Near term: deleveraging. Medium term: narrative stress. The current move has all the hallmarks of a forced unwind rather than a fundamental collapse. ETF outflows, reduced risk appetite, and tighter liquidity conditions are pressuring leveraged positioning. That said, the divergence versus gold is real and matters. Crypto is behaving like a high-beta liquidity asset, not a defensive store of value, which weakens the “digital gold” framing in this phase of the cycle. This does not kill the long-term thesis, but it re-anchors crypto firmly to global liquidity, not safe-haven demand. Are you buying the dip or staying on the sidelines? I would not aggressively buy this first leg down. Historically, sharp crypto drawdowns linked to macro

Would I sell or add at $4,600? I would add selectively, not sell, assuming this is not a forced-liquidity event. A dip of this magnitude after a parabolic move is consistent with position cleansing, not trend failure. The key is position sizing, not conviction. Is the bull market still intact? Yes, structurally. The correction looks like a volatility reset rather than a regime change. Why the bull case still holds Macro floor remains firm: real yields are capped, fiscal deficits persist, and central-bank gold accumulation remains strong. Geopolitical and policy risk premiums have not unwound meaningfully. Demand is diversifying: central banks, long-term allocators, and retail hedgers are all present, not just fast money. What this move likely was A crowded positioning shake-out after extre

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$   1. Why Palantir is down despite strong recent gains Palantir’s share price is weaker in early 2026 with a ~18% drawdown from recent highs and pressure on high-beta tech names at the start of the year. Softness reflects risk-off behaviour in the broader market rather than a fundamental collapse. Palantir has delivered strong performance over the past few years, mirroring classic momentum and AI-driven positioning in software.  Market psychology has been volatile as AI-linked stocks rotate, and some longer-term holders take profits after outsized moves. Price action does not necessarily imply deterioration in Palantir’s core growth trends. 2. Fundamental expectations for Q4 2025 (reported 2 Feb 202

AI Momentum and Google Cloud Growth AI as a reacceleration vector • The prevailing view on Street expectations is that AI, particularly Gemini, has materially lifted investor sentiment and may begin to show through to tangible revenue growth beyond advertising alone. Recent commentary highlights that Gemini integration is expected to aid growth in search advertising by improving user engagement and monetisation.  • Cloud remains the fastest-growing reporting segment for Alphabet, with triple-digit backlog growth noted in prior quarters and forecasted continued acceleration.  • Analysts are specifically watching whether AI enhancements can drive meaningfully faster growth in Google Cloud, not just in headline top-line figures but also in margin expansion and a path to sustained pr

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$   1. Current Context • The stock has pulled back in 2026, down roughly 18% year-to-date, echoing a similar early-year slump in 2024 that preceded a very strong rally.  • Consensus expectations for the Q4 results are for revenue north of ~US$1.34 billion and adjusted EPS around US$0.23, representing high-teens to low-double-digit growth relative to prior periods.  • Valuation remains elevated relative to traditional software peers, with forward multiples reflecting very high expectations.  2. Fundamentals and AI Positioning Bullish structural factors: • The company’s growth has been underpinned by accelerating adoption of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) by both government and co

What we just saw was not a change in character. It was a stress event. Can gold and silver rebuild momentum? Yes, but not in a straight line. The $400–$500 flush looks like forced deleveraging into thin liquidity rather than a fundamental rejection of the bull case. When one-minute bars move $100, price is being driven by positioning and margin, not macro reassessment. If the US dollar stabilises and real yields stop rising, gold can re-base relatively quickly. Silver will remain the more volatile leg, but that cuts both ways on rebounds. Sell or add? That depends on time horizon and positioning. • Long-term holders: I would not sell into panic. The macro pillars remain intact. • Traders or leveraged exposure: Risk reduction makes sense. Volatility like this usually demands consolidation.

Here is a concise, direct view within the limit. 1. Microsoft at $400? Yes, as a dip-buy. Microsoft sold off on timing concerns, not demand weakness. Azure growth confirms AI traction. $400 is a reasonable accumulation level for long-term investors, though not a short-term bottom call. 2. Can Meta be chased after +10%? No. Meta Platforms is executing well, but post-rally risk-reward is less attractive. Better to wait for consolidation than chase momentum. 3. Apple says memory costs are fine. Why no stock move? Because the market wants growth catalysts, not cost reassurance. Apple is stable, but AI monetisation and services acceleration remain incremental, not transformative yet. 4. Will Tesla deliver in 2026? Unclear, execution-heavy. Tesla still has a compelling narrative, but repeated t

$Microsoft(MSFT)$  Yes, this looks closer to an overreaction than a thesis break, but the entry decision depends on time horizon. What actually disappointed the market The fundamentals were solid. Growth did not slow. The sell-off was driven by expectations, not results. Buy-side positioning had priced in near-flawless AI execution. When management flagged ongoing supply-chain and capacity constraints, the market recalibrated near-term AI monetisation, even though demand remains clearly intact. That distinction matters. Is the AI story impaired? No. Microsoft is demand-constrained, not demand-challenged. Azure’s 38% growth confirms AI workloads are scaling rapidly. The issue is delivery timing. Revenue is being deferred, not lost. That is a v