icycrystal
05-02
@GoodLife99 @LMSunshine @koolgal @Shyon @Aqa @Universe宇宙 @rL @HelenJanet @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT

People often misjudge probabilities in daily life, largely because we rely too heavily on intuition. In the stock market, such misjudgments are common. For example:

Misconception: A stock that has already dropped 50% is unlikely to fall another 20%.

Reality: Stock price movements are like coin tosses—past results don’t affect future outcomes. If a company's fundamentals worsen, the probability of the stock falling from 50 yuan to 40 yuan (another 20% drop) could be higher than you think.

Would you like more examples of counterintuitive investing principles or mental models?

What other Buffett anecdotes do you know?

What’s the best lesson Buffet ever teach to you?

leave your comments to win tiger coins~

The Buffett Series: What Surprising Truths Have You Overlooked?
There is a classic probability puzzle known as the "Birthday Paradox". Warren Buffett once used this paradox to make a bet. This case is quite meaningful, as it serves as a reminder that: Probability is more counterintuitive than we imagine. There are many such examples in the stock market. Throughout his life, Buffett has shared numerous quotes and stories that serve as warnings to investors. Would you like more examples of counterintuitive investing principles or mental models? What other Buffett anecdotes do you know? What’s the best lesson Buffet ever teach to you?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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