$ARM Holdings(ARM)$ $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ 🚨🤖📈 All About the A’s: ARM & AppLovin Attack Expectations Afterhours 📈🤖🚨

A heavyweight earning double-header is on deck, and the spotlightis squarely on two algorithm-fuelled architects of tech disruption: ARM Holdings ($ARM) and AppLovin ($APP). Both report after market close today, and both carry the weight of the AI rally on their shoulders.

📊 ARM Holdings ($ARM): Royalty on the Rise

• Expected Revenue: $1.23B

• Expected EPS: $0.52

• Reporting: After market close, 08May25, 🇳🇿NZST

📉 EPS History

Q2’24: $0.06

Q3’24: $0.28

Q4’24: $0.29

Q1’25: $0.43

Q2’25: $0.50 est

Q3’25: $0.52 est

→ Rapid ramp-up in profitability with momentum holding into FY25

📈 Revenue Trajectory

Q2’24: $641M

Q3’24: $806M

Q4’24: $824M

Q1’25: $927M

Q2’25: $1.17B est

Q3’25: $1.23B est

→ Revenue nearly doubled over 5 quarters, mirroring AI demand acceleration

🧠 Context & Insight:

ARM earns not just from chips, but from every chip that uses its architecture. Its royalty model monetises scale, and with AI chips now spreading across devices, ARM is becoming the “toll collector” of the silicon superhighway. Apple’s M-series, Qualcomm’s Snapdragon, and Amazon’s Graviton all lean on ARM blueprints.

🔎 Key Forward Catalysts:

• Royalty expansion via Armv9 adoption

• Potential China licensing rebound

• Mobile and edge AI tailwinds

🟢 Buy: 19

🟡 Hold: 6

🔴 Sell: 2

⚡ AppLovin ($APP): Ads, Algorithms, and Absolute Ascent

• Expected Revenue: $1.83B

• Expected EPS: $1.96

• Reporting: After market close, 08May25, 🇳🇿NZST

📉 EPS History

Q2’24: $0.21

Q3’24: $0.61

Q4’24: $1.06

Q1’25: $1.40

Q2’25: $1.70 est

Q3’25: $1.96 est

→ EPS more than doubled in four quarters, with hyper-growth still projected

📈 Revenue Trend

Q2’24: ~$685M

Q3’24: ~$902M

Q4’24: ~$1.12B

Q1’25: ~$1.37B

Q2’25: ~$1.67B est

Q3’25: ~$1.83B est

→ One of the fastest top-line growth stories in mobile advertising

🧠 Context & Insight:

AppLovin’s AXON 2.0 engine uses predictive AI to optimise mobile ad spend across 140,000+ apps. It’s dominating Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) benchmarks and gaining share from The Trade Desk and Unity as privacy policies decimate traditional ad targeting models.

📌 Capital Flow Note:

Institutional ownership surged past 768 holders. Whale accumulation shows conviction as shares approach all-time highs. Bullish call volume exploded into July expiry at $90 and $100.

🟢 Buy: 20

🟡 Hold: 5

🔴 Sell: 1

📎 Macro & Competitor Context

$ARM Peers by volume:

• AMD – under pressure on margins

• NVDA – still dominant in data centre, but no royalty model

• QCOM – tethered to mobile, not general AI

$APP Peers by volume:

• TTD – struggling post-IDFA changes

• U – losing ground to AXON in gaming adtech

• IS – merged into Unity, now under cost-cutting pressure

🧩 Contrarian Take

ARM isn’t fighting Nvidia. It’s collecting royalties from everyone else who is. As chip diversification accelerates, ARM’s licensing moat widens.

APP isn’t just surviving ATT privacy changes. It’s thriving because of them. When the walled gardens grow, AppLovin sells the ladders.

🧠 What to Watch Next

1. Gross margin and royalty rate updates from ARM

2. AXON adoption metrics and share buyback news from APP

3. Institutional flow shifts based on guidance trends

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