$Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ 🚨🚘💥 Lyft-Off Incoming? $LYFT Charts a Course Through the AV Frontier 💥🚘🚨

Volatility is revving ahead of tonight’s earnings, with $LYFT pricing in a sharp 11.32% move. Past earnings have been anything but idle, with historical swings that command respect. This stock does not cruise, it surges or stalls, and traders are bracing for ignition.

Open interest is surging, and $LYFT has rallied 19% over the past month. It now sits above its descending trendline for the first time in over a year, suggesting sentiment may have finally bottomed.

📈 Technical Signals: Wave 3 Fuel?

Lyft may have completed an ABC correction and has now pierced its 200-day moving average with volume confirmation. If the Elliott Wave thesis is correct, we are entering Wave 3. Fibonacci extensions point toward $28.18, $33.78, and even $37.80. RSI is rising, and the breakout structure is intact.

🧾 Earnings Backdrop:

   •   Q1 2025 revenue expected: $1.47B, up 15 percent year-on-year

   •   EPS expected: $0.06, up 27 percent year-on-year

   •   Q4 2024: Gross bookings up 15 percent, Active Riders up 10 percent to 24.7 million

Management has acknowledged that Q1 is traditionally soft, but highlighted durable demand, rising ride frequency, and market-leading service levels.

🧠 Analyst Sentiment Split:

   •   TD Cowen’s John Blackledge has a Hold rating and lowered his price target from $14 to $12 due to macro concerns

   •   Cantor’s Deepak Mathivanan also holds a Hold rating. He sees strategic value in the $197M FreeNow acquisition but notes regional competition. His price target remains $14

🌍 Strategic Moves:

   •   Lyft has launched operations in Québec, starting with Montréal and Québec City

   •   The FreeNow acquisition expands Lyft’s reach to 150 cities across 10 European countries, potentially doubling its total addressable market

🚗 Autonomous Vehicle Thesis:

This is where it gets interesting. Tesla may own the vehicle stack, but Uber and Lyft own the distribution rails. As AV adoption reduces the economic rationale for personal car ownership, Lyft becomes infrastructure, deeply embedded in app ecosystems, user behaviour, and regional routing.

Once the cost of ride-sharing falls below the burden of ownership, the AV era will make platforms like Lyft indispensable.

📊 Valuation Snapshot:

   •   Price: $13.09

   •   Forward P/E: 13.17

   •   52-week range: $8.92 to $19.06

   •   P/B: 7.18

   •   Float Cap: $5.03B

⚠️ What to Watch 👀

   •   Revenue and EPS vs expectations ($1.47B and $0.06)

   •   Commentary on AV integration and international expansion

   •   Institutional flow reaction

   •   Key levels: $13.14 breakout and $15.67 Fibonacci resistance

Lyft is no longer just a gig economy battler. If this earnings report confirms the reversal, it could mark the start of a new exponential chapter, one driven not just by riders, but by autonomy, scale, and global reach.

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