My Investing Muse (12May25)
Layoffs & Closure news
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As leases expire, Family Dollar is closing over 1,000 store locations. But the discount chain is trying to breathe new life into the stores that remain. - The Street
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Now, Rite Aid is putting close to its entire real estate portfolio up for grabs as part of the Chapter 11 process. Rite Aid has almost 1,200 store leases and is looking to have bidders take over. - the Street
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The Olefins 6 “cracker” facility in Teesside, controlled by Sabic, employs hundreds of workers and has been undergoing a major conversion to run on gas feedstock. But Sabic paused that work months ago and is now understood to be on the verge of announcing the plant’s closure amid spiralling costs and concerns about high energy prices. - Telegraph UK
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DHL to close Southern California warehouse, lay off 346 workers. Competitor UPS plans to close small Wisconsin facility. - FreightWaves
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Presently, JCPenney operates just over 600 stores, and it continues to close more. And now it plans to close seven stores by the end of May 2025. - The Street
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Hudson’s Bay is about to disappear. The oldest company in North America (founded in 1670) is about to close its doors forever. - UnionRayo
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A Detroit-based grocery-hauling company with over 300 trucks has filed for bankruptcy alongside several partner companies. SFD estimated 5,001 and 10,000 creditors, with liabilities totalling between $500 million and $1 billion. - FreightWaves
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Big Four accounting firm PwC is laying off about 1,500 employees in the United States, a company spokesperson said on Monday (May 5). - Business Times
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MGM Resorts International has issued layoffs that will affect concierge services at several of its Las Vegas properties on the city’s iconic Strip - TravelNoire
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Layoffs tied to the manufacturing, distribution and freight sectors have surged across the southeastern U.S. since the beginning of April. More than 1,300 job cuts have been announced, according to media reports and WARN Act notices. - FreightWaves
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Intel plans massive layoffs under new CEO: 21,000 employees to lose their jobs - Infoemplea2
These developments highlight mounting pressures across retail, manufacturing, logistics, and professional services, driven by high costs, bankruptcy proceedings, and strategic downsizing. Coupled with concerns over consumer debt, CMBS, federal and corporate debt, and geopolitical uncertainties, these trends reinforce the need for a cautious investment stance. Close monitoring of economic indicators and global developments is critical.
Of Debts and Delinquency
Here is some of the news involving debts and delinquency.
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In 2025, $7 trillion worth of Treasury debt comes due. That’s what is called a “maturity wall” The government’s only option is to borrow new money to pay back the maturing debt - X user Bravos Research
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The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices rose to 10.3% in April, near the highest on record. Delinquency rates on these loans are now up 9 percentage points over the last 3 years. By comparison, delinquency rates hit 10.7% at the post-2008 peak. The multifamily delinquency rate surged 113 basis points in April, to 6.57%, the highest since 2015. The overall US CMBS delinquency rate jumped to 7.03%, the highest since January 2021. The commercial real estate crisis is worsening. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
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US federal interest costs hit $1.1 TRILLION in Q1 2025, just shy of a record set in Q4 2024. As a % of tax receipts, this is ~35%, only below the 1980s-1990s, and above the World War II levels. - X user Global Markets Investor
My final thoughts
In conclusion, this week's market outlook calls for heightened caution. Rising consumer debt, commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) vulnerabilities, escalating federal deficits, and corporate debt levels pose significant risks that could sway market stability. Additionally, the China-USA meeting in Switzerland, aimed at charting a path forward, warrants close attention, as do the ongoing military hotspots that could further unsettle global markets. While opportunities may arise, a prudent approach—marked by monitoring and disciplined risk management—is essential to navigate these turbulent waters.
Let us review our expenditures, income, and savings. Let us spend within our means, invest with what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. I am reviewing my holdings and plan to cut losses with businesses losing their competitive advantages. I would also consider hedging and adding some defensive positions.
Let us do our due diligence before we take up any positions. Let us have a successful week ahead.
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