America’s Debt Spiral Here is a collection of recent news about America’s debt situation": Image USA’s national debt approaches $37 trillion The US car market BUBBLE is popping: The 60-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans hit 5% for the first time, and exceeded Financial Crisis levels. Auto loan SERIOUS delinquencies 90+ days hit 5% in Q1 2025, reaching the Financial Crisis high - X user Global Markets Investor Image It took over 200 years for the U.S. debt to reach $12 trillion. $12 trillion is how much we added in 4 years between 2020 and 2024. - X user The Rabbit Hole Image In this thread I want to give you an idea just how insane the current government spending is and how far we drifted away from any sustainable fiscal spending. This is all based on reported numbers and there a

My Investing Muse (09Jun25) Layoffs & Closure news Nearly 160 companies will be laying off employees throughout the month of June, exceeding the approximately 130 companies that did so in May. The layoffs will affect multiple industries, including retail, pharmaceutical, food and beverage, airlines, package delivery and more. Layoffs in the workforce vary by company, with some laying off between one and 25 employees; other companies, like U.S. Cellular, have larger cuts planned. - NewsWeek Microsoft cuts hundreds of jobs after firing 6,000 in May - Bloomberg Walt Disney Co. launched another deep round of layoffs on Monday, notifying several hundred Disney employees in the U.S. and abroad that their jobs were being eliminated amid an increasingly difficult economic environment for tradi

News and my thoughts from last week (09Jun25) Image The U.S. Treasury bought back $10 billion worth of its own bonds on Tuesday – the largest buyback in history – in a bid to support a weakening Treasury market. If enacted, President Donald Trump’s proposed “Big Beautiful Bill,” likely to increase the deficit even more, could accelerate an already deteriorating fiscal picture for the U.S. Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sought to calm fears by declaring the U.S. will “never default” – but when a Treasury Secretary has to say that out loud, it’s clear that a default is a real possibility. - X user Porter Stansberry Image Image Image All you need to know about the current trade negotiations between the U.S. and China: 1. The U.S. simply cannot do without Chinese rare eart

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 09Jun25 Technical observations: MACD - a top crossover is completed, and this suggests a downtrend is coming. Ranging sideways can be a possible scenario, too. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend. However, the 3 lines are converging, and a trend reversal is expected. Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. This speaks of a bullish outlook for both the short and long term. The CMF is positive at 0.25, indicating strong buying pressure over the past 20 periods. The daily interval is showing a “Strong Buy" for the S&P 500 index. 21 indicators are showing a “Buy” rating, and no indicator shows a “Sell” rating. Short-Term Outlook: The emerging Morning Doji Star and Morning Star patterns, combined with the pric

Earnings Calendar (09Jun25) I am interested in the earnings releases of Adobe, Oracle, and GameStop. Let us look into Adobe Systems in detail. Adobe has a “Strong Buy” technical analysis recommendation. The Analyst’s sentiment is “Buy”. The price target is $488.02, which represents an upside of 17.05%. 10-year performance of Adobe: Revenue grew from $4,796M in 2015 to $21,505M in 2024, over 4x over 10 years. Growth: Revenue grew from $4,796M to $21,505M, with a 10-year CAGR of 17.9%. Growth rates varied, peaking at 24.7% in 2017 and slowing to 10.8% in 2024, showing consistent expansion. Operating Margin grew from 18.8% (2015) to 36.0% (2024). Trend: Operating margin improved significantly from 18.8% to 36.0%, with a notable rise from 25.5% in 2016 to a peak of 34.6% in 2022, reflecting en

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in China, Singapore, Hong Kong and America. Economic Calendar (09Jun25) Notable Highlights (some are taken from Grok) The most watched economic data should be CPI, which serves as one of the references for inflation. Inflation Trends: The CPI forecasts (previous core at 0.2% MoM, YoY at 2.3%) suggest a cooling inflation environment, especially with the YoY rate dropping from 2.6%. If actual figures align or undershoot, it could reduce pressure on the Fed to tighten policy, potentially supporting equities and bonds. Labour Market: The previous “Initial Jobless Claims” at 247K shows a stable labour market. A significant increase could signal weakening conditions, while a decrease might bolster confidence in economic resilience. Energy and Producer

Affirm, Klarna and BNPL need to understand that the reasons why people need BNPL are the same reasons why we should not offer them. It is a matter of time when they crash into a debt wall. https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2025/05/31/affirm-stock-down-as-klarnas-buy-now-pay-later-credit-loss-rises-17/ $Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$  

Not sure if it is a good thing for Powell’s resignation. The market may treat this as good news towards lowered interest rates. This should allow more market liquidity with (an expected) lowered cost of financing. However, if the risk associated with borrowing is heightened, it may not have the effect as the market forces would still push up the interest rates. This can push America closer to more inflation. At the same time, they will need to convince FOMC and not just Jerome Powell about lowering the rates. We need to monitor. Trump may get his way with lowered interest but market forces can keep it up. the recent $43.6B worth of treasury re-purchase at 5+% is a good reminder. No one is buying and the USA government has to buy its own bonds. So, the trend is upwards.

News and my thoughts from last week (02Jun25) CEOs are anticipating a recession in the US: 83% of 133 surveyed CEOs expect a recession over the next 12-18 months, in line with 2022 levels. 12% expect a deep US recession with material global spillover. - X user Global Markets Investor Billionaire Warren Buffett Pours $305,500,000,000 Into 'Safe Haven' Assets While Dumping Stakes in Citigroup, Bank of America and Capital One - The Daily Hodl Image From X user Amanda Goodall Netanyahu orders Israeli Air Force to prepare for a launch attack against Iran WITHOUT U.S. support. Source: Ynet. Don't be careful. Be competent - Tom Cruise. The Federal Reserve stated that the risks of both inflation and unemployment are high, and that it remains vigilant, monitoring developments that might exacerbate

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 02Jun25 Technical observations: MACD - a top crossover is completed, and this suggests a downtrend is coming. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend. However, the 3 lines are converging, and a trend reversal is coming. Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows more buying than selling momentum. The daily interval is showing a “Strong Buy" for the S&P 500 index. From the 21 indicators, 20 show a “Buy” rating and 1 shows a “Sell” rating. Short-Term Trend: Bullish The Morning Doji Star and Morning Star (both emerging as of May 26) are strong bullish reversal patterns, indicating that the recent pullback was a correction within a broader uptrend. The price rise confirms the resumptio

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Hong Kong and America. China is closed on 02 June 2025 (Monday) as they celebrate the Dragon Boat Festival. Singapore is closed on 06 Jun 2025 (Friday) as we join our Muslim citizens to celebrate “Eid Al-Adha” also known as Hari Raya Haji. Economic Calendar (02Jun25) Notable Highlights (some are taken from Grok) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May) forecast 52.3, above the Previous of 50.2, indicating expansion in U.S. manufacturing (above 50 signals growth). S&P Global Services PMI (May) previously 52.3, above the previous of 50.8, showing growth in the services sector (above 50). ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) forecast 48.7, but still below 50, signalling continued contraction in manufacturing activity. ISM Manufacturing Prices (May) pre

I have exited a few USD positions after the bond market rates spike and the the devaluation of the currency.  What do you do when there would be drop of currency value? There is a debt wall of over $7 trillion in Treasury assets that would need re financing soon. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$   $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$  

News and my thoughts from last week (26May25) "Companies are cracking down on remote work to get employees to quit," per BI It is not wrong to question everything. Take all things with a pinch of salt. Nearly 75% of all restaurant traffic is now drive-thru or takeout orders, per the National Restaurant Association On Wednesday, the Treasury Department found that there was tepid demand for an auction for $20 billion worth of bonds, and ended up paying a slightly higher interest rate (or yield) than expected. - NPR Image Legendary investor Jim Rogers exits global equities, hoards cash and precious metals due to mounting debt crisis - DimSum Daily Michael Burry says: "The biggest financial crisis we've seen since 2008 will hit Wall Street next year, that’s why i sold 99% of my stocks" Image S

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 26May25 Technical observations: MACD - a top crossover should be completed soon, and this suggests a potential downtrend is coming. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend. However, the 3 lines are converging, and a trend reversal is coming. Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows more buying than selling momentum. The daily interval is showing a “Strong Buy" for the S&P 500 index. From 20 technical indicators, there are 14 indicators showing a “Buy” rating and 6 indicators showing a “Sell” rating. Short-Term Outlook: Bullish The Morning Doji Star and Morning Star (both emerging as of May 23) are strong bullish reversal patterns, suggesting that the current pullback may be neari

Earnings Calendar (26May25) The interesting earnings this week include Nvidia, Salesforce, Costco, C3 AI, Best Buy and Dell. Let us look at Nvidia. The stock price grew 23% from a year ago. Technical Analysis recommends a “Strong Buy" rating. The Analysts’ sentiment recommends a “Strong Buy” rating too. The target price is $162.77 suggests an upside of 23.98%. Performance of Nvidia (some from Grok) Revenue Growth Trend: NVIDIA's revenue has shown explosive growth, increasing from $5.01 billion in 2016 to $130.497 billion in 2025. There is exceptional growth with 39.5% 10-Year CAGR. Competitive Advantage: NVIDIA’s remarkable revenue growth underscores its leadership in the GPU and AI markets, capitalising on the global AI boom, gaming trends, and data centre expansion, positioning it as a k

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in China and Singapore. America is closed on 26May25 as they celebrate Memorial Day. Hong Kong is closed on 31May25 as they celebrate Tuen Ng Day (also known as Dragonboat Festival). Economic Calendar (26May25) Notable Highlights (some are taken from Grok) Fed Chair Powell’s remarks could provide insights into monetary policy, potentially influencing markets depending on his stance on interest rates and inflation. Previous Durable Goods Orders (Apr) were at 7.5% (month-over-month). No forecast is provided, but a strong reading could signal robust economic activity, while a decline might raise concerns. CB Consumer Confidence (May) is forecasted at 88.0, up from 86.0. A drop in consumer confidence could indicate weaker consumer spe