U.S. to China from 145% to 30%, another 24% suspended for 90 days, China to U.S. from 125% to 10%, another 24% suspended for 90 days; reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. cut to 10%, China cut to 10%, and both sides have another 24% suspended.
Summary: Much better than expectations.
The talks are the two sides in the election cycle under the pressure of the "stop-loss" compromise: the Chinese side to cooperate in exchange for tariffs to reduce the pressure, the United States side to "pause" instead of "cancel" to maintain deterrence, the essence is still the"Time for space" expedient.
The real test lies in: when the "joint statement" aura faded, the two sides in the 232 investigation, high-tech control and other structural contradictions to find a new balance.
From "80%" to "24% + 10%": the art of negotiation table
Trump's previous "80%" threat is essentially a typical negotiation tactic aimed at creating a high-pressure atmosphere to force the Chinese side to make concessions.The final "24% suspension + 10% retention" structure is actually a compromise between the two sides under the framework of "reciprocal concessions".
By "suspending" part of the tariffs in exchange for synchronized action by the Chinese side, the U.S. side not only preserves political face (maintaining the 10% "deterrent tariff"), but also leaves room for subsequent negotiations.
The core objective is still the trade deficit: the U.S. has always emphasized "rebalancing", but this time did not directly mention the specific deficit reduction target, suggesting that the U.S. side is more interested in short-term tariff gains (suspension of 24% rather than elimination) and symbolic victories (e.g., fentanyl cooperation).
"30%" fog and fentanyl "step effect"
10% basic tariffs + 20% fentanyl linkage: the U.S. side will be part of the tariffs (20%) and the fentanyl issue bundled, the Chinese side sent a rare head of fentanyl affairs to the meeting, releasing "non-economic and trade chips" in exchange for tariff concessions signal.This "issue linkage" is a breakthrough - in the past, the U.S. and China negotiations focused on purely economic and trade areas, this time the anti-drug cooperation will be included, for the impasse to provide a "decent step down".
Besant's "fentanyl obsession": the U.S. Treasury Secretary repeatedly emphasized the issue, probably due to domestic political needs (fentanyl abuse is an important campaign issue for the Republican Party), and the Chinese side followed the trend of shaping it into a "bright spot for cooperation" to meet U.S. demands and avoid excessive concessions on the core economic and trade terms.The "win-win" situation is not only to meet the demands of the U.S. side, but also to avoid excessive concessions on core economic and trade terms.
The "win-win" narrative and market reactions
Clever use of diplomatic rhetoric: the joint statement's language of "mutual respect" and "sustainable relationship" belies the previous confrontation (and is not a win-lose structure).The Besant team packaged the "pause in escalation" as "avoidance of mishaps," weakening the zero-sum narrative of the Trump era, in line with the Biden administration's "coopetition" (竞争合) strategy.) strategy of the Biden administration.
Markets "exceeded expectations": Hong Kong and U.S. stocks rallied, reflecting capital's anticipation of a "conflict freeze" being loosened.But be wary of the fragility of "tactical de-escalation" - the remaining 10% tariffs and fentanyl enforcement mechanism are still potential flashpoints.
The hidden text of the geopolitical game
Subtext of the "non-decoupling" commitment: both sides emphasize that they "do not want to decouple", which is in fact a redefinition of "de-risking".The US may offer tariff concessions in exchange for China's restraint in key technologies (e.g. semiconductors), while China uses the opportunity to polarize the US and EU (e.g. the statement mentions that "the EU is slow to move").
Third Party Comparison (UK+Switzerland): The US deliberately praises the "flexibility" of the UK and Switzerland, with the intention of pressuring the EU to follow through on its hard-line policy towards China, highlighting its offshore balancing strategy of "divide and conquer".
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