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2025Q3 Commodity: Gold's Last Dance, Aluminum Boom

The following report from $Citigroup(C)$ 's Q3 Commodity Markets looks at the overall Q3 picture of short-term pressure and long-term improvement, with macroeconomics facing multiple challenges of high interest rates, tariffs, and geopolitics, but OBBBA and Trump policies could reverse the trend, with an optimistic outlook for growth in 2026.In commodity markets, gold may retreat after short-term consolidation and investors need to be cautious; energy markets are highly volatile and concerned about geopolitical risks; aluminum and copper are favored due to technology-driven structural demand; and agriculture is relatively minor.I. Core Conclusions and Convincing Trades (Executive Summary)Gold's 'Last Hurrah'Status: Gold price at record high ($3,415/o
2025Q3 Commodity: Gold's Last Dance, Aluminum Boom

Meta's AI Monetization? WhatsApp Ads Raises Financial Outlook

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ has recently announced a pivotal shift in its WhatsApp strategy by introducing advertising to the platform, marking a departure from its long-standing "no ads" policy. This move aims to monetize WhatsApp’s massive user base of over 3 billion monthly active users, leveraging its Updates tab for ads, channel subscriptions, and promoted channels. This report analyzes Meta’s strategic pivot, recent financial performance, market expectations, and valuation implications, arguing that while the advertising initiative presents significant revenue potential, it must navigate user privacy concerns and market dynamics to ensure long-term success.WhastApp to start showing ads in messaging app launches news monetisation featuresStr
Meta's AI Monetization? WhatsApp Ads Raises Financial Outlook

Technology Macro: From Pseudo Bull To Structural Bull?

This week's tech market has hidden a lot of structural variability in the midst of overall moderation.From the macro to the plate, to the company's fundamentals, multiple dimensions intertwined the current complex and full of opportunities.First, the macro risk is rising: tariff game resurfacesWhile the military tension between Israel and Iran has not subsided, a new round of tariff negotiations between the US and Vietnam has become the focus of recent market attention.Bloomberg reported that the U.S. is proposing to impose 20-25% tariffs on Vietnam's exports, significantly higher than the 10% range previously expected by the market.Tariff risk has re-emerged as a major variable weighing on risk appetite as the July 9 deadline for negotiations approaches.Over the past few weeks, market cap
Technology Macro: From Pseudo Bull To Structural Bull?

BIG TECH WEEKLY | MSFT's All-time-high Makes Amazon Sweating? Nvidia’s Post-GTC Expectations Rising

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly Macro Highlights: The showdown between the bigwigs With May’s CPI continuing to decline—core inflation easing even further—Trump launched a fierce attack on Powell at the White House this week, urging a rate cut and even specifying a "2 percentage point" reduction. Although his claim of saving $600 billion annually may not materialize, the reality is that with ballooning U.S. debt, government interest expenses are under significant pressure. On June 13, he went so far as to call Powell a “blockhead.” However, Powell remained committed to data-driven policy and resisting political interference, with no signs of easing tension. The market is closely watching the Fed's next moves.In macro markets, U.S. long-term bond yields fell by 6–8bps as expectations of Fed ra
BIG TECH WEEKLY | MSFT's All-time-high Makes Amazon Sweating? Nvidia’s Post-GTC Expectations Rising

Adobe's AI Cash Cow: $250M ARR Can't Stop Stock Slip

$Adobe(ADBE)$ Strong performance in revenue, profitability and AI innovation in the second quarter of fiscal 2025.Solid growth in the Digital Media and Digital Experience segments, combined with rapid advancement of the AI strategy, provide a clear growth path for the company going forward.Despite the small after-hours drop in share price, Adobe's long-term investment value remains solid, especially driven by the combination of AI and subscription model.Performance and market feedbackOn the revenue front, revenue of US$5.87 billion ($5.87B) grew 11% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of US$5.8 billion, driven by the two core business segments of Digital Media and Digital Experience.EPS performance was strong, with non-GAAP earnings per sh
Adobe's AI Cash Cow: $250M ARR Can't Stop Stock Slip

Zero-Carbon Future? Nuclears Burning Cash But Worth Billions

Nuclear sector stocks $Oklo Inc.(OKLO)$ and $NuScale Power(SMR)$ have been very strong in recent weeks, largely driven by recent industry trends.OKLO (Oklo Inc.).OKLO is a company focused on developing advanced fission power plant and nuclear fuel recycling technologies, and its stock has been a notable recent performer.On June 11, OKLO closed at $68.03, up 29.48% from the previous trading session's price of $52.58, showing a strong one-day performance.However, the performance for the past week (ending June 11) was -6.18%, which may reflect short-term market volatility.OKLO is up 92.52% over the past month and 44.91% year-to-date (as of early January), indicating a strong long-term trend.Although the compa
Zero-Carbon Future? Nuclears Burning Cash But Worth Billions

52%→70%: Oracle CEO’s Bold Cloud Leap Defies Gravity

$Oracle(ORCL)$ announced its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter (ending May) results after the bell on June 11, a report card that was both explosive and controversial, with revenue up 11% year-over-year and adjusted EPS of $1.70, both of which exceeded expectations.But what attracted the most attention was not the current results, but management's aggressive guidance for cloud infrastructure (OCI) revenue growth of more than 70% in fiscal year 2026, a figure that far exceeds the current year-on-year growth rate of 52%, which directly drove the stock price to surge 8% at one point after the bellResults and Market FeedbackRevenue exceeds expectations, up 11% year-over-yearOracle's total revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 (ended May 31, 2025
52%→70%: Oracle CEO’s Bold Cloud Leap Defies Gravity

Chime’s IPO Is a ‘Money Printer’, But Not For All

This week, U.S. fintech company Chime Financial is set to log on to the Nasdaq, and further kicking off the resurgence of tech company IPOs.The company will go public on Nasdaq on June 12, with an offering price range of $24-$26. It plans to issue 32 million shares and raise a maximum of $832 million, with a valuation of about $10.5 billion after full dilution, but still a distance away relative to the valuation of $25 billion in 2021 when Sequoia and others entered the market.The IPO was underwritten by Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and others, with returns of 67x for early investors such as Crosslink Capital.Company Description. $Chime Financial, Inc.(CHYM)$ is a financial technology company founded in 2012 and headquartered in San Francisco, Ca
Chime’s IPO Is a ‘Money Printer’, But Not For All

Weekly US Stock: NDX should've +6% without AAPL&TSLA

$NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ for two consecutive weeks rose more than 2%, rebounded about 30% from the previous lows, close to all-time highs, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ record highs, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and so on from the highs of the difference of 5-10%; $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ since mid-February to closed below 17 for the first time since mid-February, and TMT sector fundamentals improved (e.g., AI-driven $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$ Broadcom beat expectations,
Weekly US Stock: NDX should've +6% without AAPL&TSLA

BIG TECH WEEKLY | Elon vs.Trump: When Ego Crashes the Market; AVGO's Imperfect Perfect

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Highlights This Week: Disappointing ADP; A Springtime for Crypto? “Trump vs. Musk” EscalatesThis week’s ADP data showed employment growth slowing to a two-year low, indicating a second consecutive month of cooling labor demand. This has raised concerns about economic momentum and could influence monetary policy. While a cooler labor market might pressure the Fed toward rate cuts, steady wage growth and tariffs may limit the room for such adjustments. Attention should also be paid to the discrepancies between ADP data and BLS non-farm payrolls, as well as the potential impact of subsequent revisions. $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ successfully debuted on the U.S. stock market as the "first stablecoin stock." Its IPO price
BIG TECH WEEKLY | Elon vs.Trump: When Ego Crashes the Market; AVGO's Imperfect Perfect

AVGO Erngs Call: AI Revenue Growth, ASIC and Scale-up Trends

1. AI revenue growth exceeded expectations, long-term sustainability is clearData performance: $Broadcom(AVGO)$ Q2 AI-related revenue reached $4.4 billion, Q3 guidance of $5.1 billion (+60% year-on-year), management clear 2025 high growth will continue to 2026.AI revenues may reach $20B in 2025 and exceed $30B in 2026 by analyst projections.Key signals: management's confirmation of 2026 growth trajectory ("same trajectory") indicates high order visibility and no downward revision of 2027 targets, reflecting its confidence in the long-term nature of AI demand.Potential risk: visibility is not updated beyond 2026 for the time being, and attention needs to be paid to whether there are subsequent technology iterations or changes in customer demand (e.
AVGO Erngs Call: AI Revenue Growth, ASIC and Scale-up Trends

Tariffs vs. Tights: Lululemon’s Midlife Crisis

$Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$ Q1 2025 earnings report shows potential for international-driven growth, but weakness in the U.S. market and lower full-year guidance could trigger a valuation repricing.International expansion strategy is paying off, with improved gross margins supporting profitability, but need to be wary of the valuation impact of increased competition and macroeconomic uncertainty in the US market.Performance and Market FeedbackLululemon Q1 2025 revenues came in at $2.37 billion, up +7% YoY, slightly ahead of the market estimate of $2.36 billion, indicating that the company's strong performance in international markets offset weakness in the U.S. EPS of $2.60 was in line with the estimate and up +2% from $2.54 a year ago, with profi
Tariffs vs. Tights: Lululemon’s Midlife Crisis

From Niche to Kingmaker: MongoDB's $2.2B Voyage AI Bet Pays Off

$MongoDB Inc.(MDB)$ reported Q1 FY2026 (ending April 30, 2025) earnings on June 4 after-hours, a quarterly turnaround to a profit (the market expected a loss as well) Its strong performance may further consolidate its leading position in the cloud database market, and the advancement of its AI strategy may change the competitive landscape of the industry, attracting more enterprise-class customers.At the same time, increased competition with $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ AWS, $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Google Cloud may also put pressure on the non-Atlas business, and we need to continue to monitor the long-term market share changes.Performance and Market FeedbackRevenue: Revenue was
From Niche to Kingmaker: MongoDB's $2.2B Voyage AI Bet Pays Off

Crowdstrike Earnings: AI Hype vs Reality: Weak Q2 Guidance Sparks Valuation Reset

$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ Q1 FY2026 results show solid revenue growth (+20% YoY) and ARR growth of 22% to support subscription-based strategy, but widening GAAP loss and declining gross margins reflect cost pressures.Q2 and full-year guidance, while maintaining 20%+ growth, is below market expectations, triggering valuation repricing risk.AI innovation and share buyback program boost confidence, but profitability and expense control will be the focus of the market in the near termPerformance and market feedbackRevenue and profit performance: Q1 total revenue of $1.103bn, +20% YoY, in line with LSEG's estimate of $1.10bn; non-GAAP EPS of $0.73 vs. $0.65 est. showing earnings resilience.However, GAAP net loss of $110m declined from year-ago ne
Crowdstrike Earnings: AI Hype vs Reality: Weak Q2 Guidance Sparks Valuation Reset

BIG TECH WEEKLY | Nvidia's Rise vs. Peers' Stuck? | Trump Tariffs' Bite on Apple?

Big-Tech’s Performance​​​This Week’s Macro Theme: A Sudden Appeal—Trump and the Courts in a Tug-of-War?​​The market rebounded so quickly due to the emergence of the "TACO" (Trump Always Chicken Out) narrative.On May 29, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that some of Trump’s tariffs and fentanyl sanctions exceeded the authority granted by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and ordered an immediate halt, briefly sparking market optimism (the index surged). However, Trump’s team swiftly appealed, and on May 30, the appeals court issued a "stay" order, temporarily reinstating the tariffs. The core dispute revolves around IEEPA’s applicability—the court argued that trade deficits don’t constitute a "national emergency," while Trump’s side claimed national security
BIG TECH WEEKLY | Nvidia's Rise vs. Peers' Stuck? | Trump Tariffs' Bite on Apple?

AI Security Arsenal Meets Macro Reality: Okta's Growth Wall

$Okta Inc.(OKTA)$ reported solid Q1 FY2026 earnings after the bell on May 27th, but growth guidance was conservative and below expectations, leading to subdued market sentiment and a significant after-hours drop in the stock price.Okta has strengthened its market leadership position through new product innovations and public sector certifications, but needs to address the challenges of increased competition and slowing IT spending.Investors should monitor revenue growth, customer acquisition and changes in the macro environment in subsequent quarters to assess Okta's long-term investment value.Performance and Market FeedbackRevenue Performance: Q1 FY2026 total revenue was $688 million (+12% YoY), beating market expectations of $680 million.Subscri
AI Security Arsenal Meets Macro Reality: Okta's Growth Wall

PDD PLUNGE: WHY THE GAME CHANGED?

Performance and market feedbackQ1 total revenue of 95,672.2 million yuan, up only 10% year-on-year, below market expectations of 103,368 million yuan, of which online marketing services +15% and transaction services +6%.Gross margin was about 57.2%, much lower than last year's 62.3% and below the market's expectation of 58.2%, with rising cost pressure.What's more, operating expense ratio accelerated, marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue rose from 27% to 34.9%, and high intensity investment in a competitive environment was unavoidable and exceeded the market's highest expectations, thus also leading to an operating profit of NT$16,085.6 million, a year-on-year decline of 38%, and a non-GAAP operating profit of NT$18,259.7 million, a year-on-year decline of 36%.Diluted profit per A
PDD PLUNGE: WHY THE GAME CHANGED?

Meituan 25Q1 Earnings Call Q&A Summary

$MEITUAN-W(03690)$ 25 Earnings Conference Call Transcript Summary: Meituan's 2Q core pressure comes from takeaway subsidy wars, but stabilizes fundamentals through combination of strategies and regulatory compliance strengths, flash sales/lower tier cities as growth highlights, and internationalization (Middle East, Brazil) as long term layout. $MEITUAN-WR(83690)$ Core business performanceQ1: What are the core trends in Core Local Services (CLC) in 2Q25?A1.Unit volume: year-on-year growth rate flat with 1Q/4Q24Revenue: overall CLC growth declined to 9-11% (takeaway +5%), with revenue growth lower than unit volume growth for the first time due to subsidies offsetting delivery revenueProfit: double-digit
Meituan 25Q1 Earnings Call Q&A Summary

Meituan Q1 Profit Soars, But Real Battle Is Coming

$MEITUAN-W(03690)$ 25Q1 results showed strong growth and profitability, with core local commerce and membership programs as key drivers.Competitive pressures have not yet significantly impacted financial performance as Q1 did not start the takeout war, with overseas expansion and AI investments providing potential for long-term growth.More important though is the guidance from the earnings call.To summarize the market concerns:The impact of Q1 competition is not yet significant, and the reduction of subsidies eases the pressure on profits;However, Q2 takeaway competition intensifies, operating profit growth will decline significantly, and it is impossible to predict how long irrational competition will lastKeeta's initial success responds to inte
Meituan Q1 Profit Soars, But Real Battle Is Coming

Weekly Macro: Will SPX Surge To New High?

There was a significant pullback in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ last week, with the bond market a key contributing factor.Long-term bond supply issues (U.S.-Japan auction chaos), deficit pressures from the U.S. budget proposal (locking in a $2 trillion deficit over the next several years), and intensifying pressures on the back end of the global interest rate curve, as well as debt sustainability concerns and tariff uncertainty (the "zero Sharpe ratio guessing game"), combined to lead to a highly volatile trading environment.Equity markets, on the other hand, have been heavily influenced by slowing demand strength (although companies are still buying), cooling risk appetite, and technicals suggesting a weakening of near-term demand trends.Key insights
Weekly Macro: Will SPX Surge To New High?

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