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Who Are the New Favorites Sector in 2025?

Previously, when the big banks predicted the U.S. stock market in 2025, they used the words "shock" and "volatility".From the performance since the beginning of the year, the "defense" posture is a very obvious feature, for example: from the sector point of view, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ index of the sector dynamics of the change, it is notable from the previous dominant technology stocks to the shift of financials, health care and materials sectors.Materials sectors.Policy dividend-driven financial sector, earnings repair healthcare and materials sectors have become the new focus in 2025, while technology stocks are temporarily weak due to valuation pressure.Sector Rotation StatusThe Information Technology (+36%) and Communication Services (+39%) sect
Who Are the New Favorites Sector in 2025?

Target's Q4 Highlights: Strong Digital Growth, Cautious 2025 Outlook

$Target (TGT)$ have not been too volatile since the release of its Q4 results.Despite the same "tariff threat" and potential consumer downgrade, its Q4 profit beat and clear 25-year plan, combined with the effectiveness of its current omni-channel strategy, make it a good medium- to long-term watch. $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ $Costco(COST)$ Performance situation and market feedbackQ4 core financial metrics paper, margins beat expectationsRevenue: $30.9B (-3.2% yoy), slightly exceeding market expectations of $30.77B (+0.48%).Since Q4 2023 has one more week than Q4 2024, excluding this effect, full year revenue growth on a comparable basis is ~1%;Earnings per share (EPS): GAAP and
Target's Q4 Highlights: Strong Digital Growth, Cautious 2025 Outlook

CrowdStrike's Earnings Alert: Too much AI cost?

$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ Q4 FY2025 earnings report, released on March 4, 2025, presented a two-sided picture of solid revenue growth but weaker-than-expected earnings guidance.Continued strength in core growth metrics (ARR, platform penetration), but aggressive investments led to short-term earnings pressure.The share price correction reflects the market's re-pricing of the "high growth and high spending" model, and we need to pay attention to whether the ARR growth rate can hedge the rising expenses and the progress of commercialization of the AI product line.In the long run, if the $10B ARR target is reached, the platform effect will significantly improve margin elasticity.Performance and Market FeedbackSolid core numbers for the quart
CrowdStrike's Earnings Alert: Too much AI cost?

Best Buy FY26 Outlook: driving opportunity for services, but market worries about recession

$Best Buy(BBY)$ plunged 13% after its earnings report, which honestly didn't look too bad, but because of the decline in same-store sales, it will have investors combining that with the previous weaker-than-expected guidance from $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ that retail sales are sluggish and recession risks areincrease. $Target(TGT)$ TakeawaysTariff uncertainty: China/Mexico tariffs are the biggest risk variable, initially estimated to drag sales by 1% (if maintained at 10%), but management emphasizes flexibility (SKU adjustment/supplier negotiation).New business layout: Marketplace (SKU expansion) and Ads (agency cooperation) are future profit engines, FY26 investment period,
Best Buy FY26 Outlook: driving opportunity for services, but market worries about recession

Sea Soars on Q4 Earnings as E-commerce Drives Profit Growth!

$Sea Ltd(SE)$ reported a 7% overall headwind collection after reporting Q4 earnings, and the market is optimistic about e-commerce performance in the quarter, with SE stock nearly tripling from its lows at the beginning of last year.Earnings and Market FeedbackSea Limited (SE) Q4 2024 revenue reached $5.0B (+36.9% yoy), significantly exceeding market expectations of $4.65B. GAAP net profit was $237.6M vs. a loss of $111.6M a year ago, and for the first time ever a full-year profit of $447.8M was realized (vs. $162.7M in 2023).Segmented business look:E-commerce (Shopee): GMV exceeded $100B (+28% yoy), focusing on Asia and Brazil markets Adj EBITDA turned positive;Digital Finance: loan size grew 60% yoy to $50B, but underlying loan growth was slightly
Sea Soars on Q4 Earnings as E-commerce Drives Profit Growth!

How TSMC wins in the US investment? By Ming-chi Kuo

As $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ announces a $100 billion investment in its U.S. plant, Ming-Chi Kuo comment:Investment Highlights:The investment program has been partially adjustedTotal investment increased by 100 billion U.S. dollars, the implementation details remain flexible, but also to eat through Trump's "love of face" and "shouting slogans" characteristics;Changes in factory layout: reduce one advanced process fab, add one advanced packaging plant, and set up more R&D centers to strengthen technological competitiveness.Strategic cooperation rather than relo
How TSMC wins in the US investment? By Ming-chi Kuo

Okta Surges 15%: Investors Recognize Profitability Milestone!

$Okta Inc.(OKTA)$ This quarter's results validate the success of the transition from "high growth" to "high quality growth" (continued turnaround), and 2026 expectations are conservative but still ahead of the market.The 2026 forecast is conservative, but still ahead of market expectations.Performance and market feedbackCore Financial IndicatorsRevenue: $682M (+12.7% yoy), beating market expectations of $668.9M.Earnings per share (EPS): $0.78 (+24% yoy), beating estimates of $0.74.Operating Profit: $168M (+30.2% yoy), operating margin improved to 1.2% from -13.7% a year ago.Free Cash Flow: Free cash flow margin of 41.6% (23.2% last quarter) and full year operating cash flow of $750M (+46% yoy).Operational Efficiency HighlightsSubscription reserve:
Okta Surges 15%: Investors Recognize Profitability Milestone!

BIG TECH WEEKLY | NVDA Ruins the market? TSLA testing election day?

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline:U.S. stocks risk sentiment rose sharply, the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ recorded the largest one-day decline since DeepSeek.Tariffs again, USD strengthened , but the Yen began to return to the "safe-haven" propertyConcerns about jobless claims data are starting to escalate, which could be a sign of economic problems or a consequence of the recent widespread layoffs in the DOGE sector, and it is suspected that the market is taking its anger out on the TSLA.Big techs, Nvidia's earnings report is naturally the focus, but the impact has declined, even if the data is still great, but "beautiful enough" will allow investors to take profits to step on.Since the beginning of the year, only META in the big technology reco
BIG TECH WEEKLY | NVDA Ruins the market? TSLA testing election day?

DELL Q4: AI Servers Drive Growth, PC Market Recovery Slow

$Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$ this quarter showed a "fire and ice" pattern: AI server demand explosion and traditional business decline coexist, PC market dawn but the consumer side is still mired in the quagmire.Short-term catalysts: AI server deliveries driven by improved GPU supply; long-term risks: storage business shrinking faster than expected, APEX transformation not as good as peers (e.g., $Hewlett Packard Enterprise(HPE)$ 's GreenLake).Key indicators to watch: AI server deliveries, commercial PC order growth, APEX subscription revenue share.Performance and market feedbackCore FinancialsRevenue: $22.3B (11% yoy, slightly beat estimates of $22.1B, +0.6%)Adjusted EPS: $1.74 (beat estimate of $1.72,
DELL Q4: AI Servers Drive Growth, PC Market Recovery Slow

💥SNOW Soars 10%, How FY26 Guidance Beats?

$Snowflake(SNOW)$ Came to a stage of margin expansion for large SaaS companies and bumped up against the rapid expansion of AI offerings, which ushered in further favorable results.Earnings and market feedbackQ4 FY2025 results were announced after the bell on the 26th, continuing to show strong growth + beating market expectations across the board.Q4 overall Top line and Bottom line both exceeded expectations, with Top line Surprise ranging around 3%; product revenue of $943.3M + 28% YoY, beat consensus $918.8M;Guidance for FY26 is very clear and strong, with product revenue expected to be $4.28bn (> consensus $4.23bn), of which $955-$960m (YoY +21-22%) in Q1; Adjusted operating margin target upgraded to 8% (vs. 5% in FY25), with the earnings p
💥SNOW Soars 10%, How FY26 Guidance Beats?

ZETA: Post-Earnings Plunge? AdTech Revolution Trades at 9x 2028 EBITDA

$Zeta Global Holdings Corp.(ZETA)$ experienced huge volatility after Q4 earnings, from +20% to -12% at one point, and investors were deeply divided on it.As one of the companies on the cusp of AI advertising services, its AI-driven efficiency improvement and scarcity of growth attribute support, the long-term logic has not changed, but the short-selling report brought about by the risk of data compliance and short-term market sentiment perturbation still need to be vigilant.The current low valuation or layout window.Investment HighlightsStrong financial performance and growth resilienceRevenue growth ahead of expectations: 4Q24 revenue growth of 50% y/y (7% ahead of guidance) and 31% growth excluding the impact of the election and acquisitions; 14
ZETA: Post-Earnings Plunge? AdTech Revolution Trades at 9x 2028 EBITDA

All About Stock Crash: US Exceptionalism, Stagflation, and A Safe-Haven Asset

The pullback in U.S. equities has extended from highly valued growth stocks (e.g. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ .) into the larger $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ broader market range. In the Mag 7, only $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ has closed higher year-to-date, while $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ with both fundamental and policy risks, has pulled back more than 22% on both performance risk and policy risk.In contrast, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has been less volatile, with significant movement between sectors, also stemming from ris
All About Stock Crash: US Exceptionalism, Stagflation, and A Safe-Haven Asset

PLTR's High Valuation: A Recipe for Disaster?

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ plunged 27% in four trading days, which makes sense and is unexpected. But what is unexpected is why it fell NOW?Essentially, there are only two reasons for a selloff:A concerted sell-off/short-sale trade by investors who are pessimistic about their future share price due to high valuations, etc;Unrelated to valuation, market trends are affected by the actions of influential investors;Currently Palantir got both.Valuation EstimatesCurrent valuation: market capitalization of $212.677 billion, FY24 revenue of $2.87 billion, and a TTM price-to-sales ratio of 74x, which compares favorably to peers, and is well above Bloomberg Peers' 10.6x and GICS' peer group's 12.8x;The 2025 expected price-to-sales ratio of 63x rema
PLTR's High Valuation: A Recipe for Disaster?

BIG TECH WEEKLY | Comparing Giants: Alibaba vs. Amazon | Nvidia Pre-Earning Volatility

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline:U.S. stocks are relatively flat: Trump continues to point fingers on the "Russia-Ukraine" issue while further utilizing tariffs to scare the world, but the market is not surprised; the U.S. dollar continues to fall, U.S. stocks are hovering at new highs, and U.S. bonds are instead ushering in incremental volume due to the Fed's minutes message.Changes in non-U.S. regions gradually become the main line: China's AI main line caused by stock trading congestion; Japan's CPI exceeded expectations caused by the yen appreciation; and Europe will usher in the German election, the market is confusing; gold continues to new highs, Goldman Sachs target price raised to 3100U.S. stocks big technology, in addition to Apple's painless remedy for Greater China
BIG TECH WEEKLY | Comparing Giants: Alibaba vs. Amazon | Nvidia Pre-Earning Volatility

Walmart Q4: Retailer lower guidane, Consumer downgrade coming?

$Wal-Mart(WMT)$ reported Q4 (FY2025) results before the market on the 20th, and while it beat expectations in the current period , 2026 guidance is cautious (very cautious), reflecting significant concerns about the macro environment (consumer downgrade, inflation).Long-term growth in profits also relies on supply chain optimization, e-commerce penetration and high-margin businesses (advertising, membership services).Due to the current valuation has been in a relatively very high position, and the funds relatively holding, pre-market plunge of 8%.Investment highlightsWhy is guidance so cautious?Expectations of negative impact of macro factors pulled fullConsumer downgrade: U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 71.1 (six-month low) and companies pl
Walmart Q4: Retailer lower guidane, Consumer downgrade coming?

Bilibili Q4 Earnings Beat: First Profitable Quarter, Ads & Games Surge!

Bilibili is on its way up in pre-market trading after announcing Q4 2024 and full-year earnings on the 20th, now jumping nearly 10%, and is feared to further lead the revaluation of Chinese stocks. $Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$ $BILIBILI-W(09626)$ Results and Market FeedbackThe profit side came in very much ahead of expectations, with the two main high margin sub-components Games (Mobile Games) and Advertising growing at +79% YoY and +24% YoY respectively, both outpacing overall revenues by +21%, and thus contributing significantly to the overall profit margin.The operating margin was profitable at the GAAP level for the first time (operating profit of $126m), and it was overheads that were more tightly controll
Bilibili Q4 Earnings Beat: First Profitable Quarter, Ads & Games Surge!

Fed Minutes implies big chance of US Treasury?

The minutes of the Fed's January 28-29 meeting, released on Wednesday, were actually pretty much what the market communicated.The short answer is:Little willingness to cut rates, need to see more inflation data.Slow down QT, or even pause it.Reduce the pace of balance sheet reduction.Will adjust with fiscal policy.Possible impact of Trump's tariff policy;Reforms undertaken by Musk's DOGE department altering the US government's cash reserves (while the Treasury re-accumulates cash reserves, bank reserves could fall rapidly)But there is one piece of information that could affect future US bond trends: The Fed may adjust the bond composition ratio of SOMA after suspending tapering, implying possible purchases of US Treasuries in the secondary market.The System Open Market Account (SOMA) is a
Fed Minutes implies big chance of US Treasury?

Arista: The King of Cloud Networking?

$Arista Networks, Inc.(ANET)$ financial performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 exceeded market expectations, demonstrating the company's strong growth in the cloud and data center product segments.A detailed analysis of its performance is provided below.FinancialsEarnings per share (EPS): $0.65 actual, exceeding market expectations of $0.57, up 14%.Total Revenue: $193M, up 25.3% YoY and above expectations of $190M.Gross margin: Q4 gross margin was 64.2%, slightly above guidance of 63%-64%, but below 65.4% in the same period last year.Operating profit: $90.71 million, or 47% of total revenue.Business Performance by SegmentArista's revenue growth was primarily driven by its Cloud AI and Data Center offerings, which together accounted for approxim
Arista: The King of Cloud Networking?

China's Tech Revaluation: Are Investors Overhyped?

The Hong Kong stock market has been strong, with $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ and $HSI(HSI)$ rising significantly after the Chinese New Year, outperforming $SHANGHAI SHENZHEN 300 INDEX(399300)$ This round of market and the September-October marketSimilaritiesDrivers: Both rounds were driven by sentiment.The September round was driven by a rapid shift in aggregate policy and expectations, which triggered high market sentiment and drove the Hang Seng Index sharply higher;This round, on the other hand, it was DeepSeek-induced sentiment on technology and China asset revaluation that drove the market upward.Funding Characteristics:In terms of fund flows, southward funds in the
China's Tech Revaluation: Are Investors Overhyped?

BIG TECH WEEKLY | China Techs Are NVDA's Bonus?

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline:CPI beat: USD rallied for a while, but the overall downtrend of CPI remained unchanged, and Powell downplayed its impact (mainly looking at PCE), and the USD index then retreated (risk assets rallied)Trump's tariff policy: economic and trade advocacy, including the promotion of reciprocal tariffs on some countries (can also be a uniform tariff), the new " consider the use of the value-added tax system (VAT) countries to impose tariffs ", taking into account a variety of factors to set up barriers to trade, emphasising fair competition, commenting on the chip manufacturing and so on.U.S. bond yields after the peak, as inflation down expectations, the market began to get used to Trump "uncertainty, but also slowly downward.The "East Rising" has be
BIG TECH WEEKLY | China Techs Are NVDA's Bonus?

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