U.S. to China from 145% to 30%, another 24% suspended for 90 days, China to U.S. from 125% to 10%, another 24% suspended for 90 days; reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. cut to 10%, China cut to 10%, and both sides have another 24% suspended.Summary: Much better than expectations.The talks are the two sides in the election cycle under the pressure of the "stop-loss" compromise: the Chinese side to cooperate in exchange for tariffs to reduce the pressure, the United States side to "pause" instead of "cancel" to maintain deterrence, the essence is still the"Time for space" expedient.The real test lies in: when the "joint statement" aura faded, the two sides in the 232 investigation, high-tech control and other structural contradictions to find a new balance.From "80%" to "24% + 10%": the art of neg
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China big tech earnings focus: AI capex, takeout-wars and trading
Overall industry trends in Q1: Consumption recovery supported results, domestic consumption of goods and services continued to pick up, headline companies (Tencent, Ali, Jingdong) reported healthy earnings results and have optimistic Q2 outlooks.Internet giants' AI capex is the focus of attention. both Tencent and Ali's spending in Q1 was not as aggressive as the market expected.Considering the uncertainty of high-end chip supply, the market consensus expects Ali and Tencent's capex in the March quarter to be around $35-40bn, and capex expectations for the full year of 2025 are not high, especially as Q2 also has short-term supply uncertainty.On the AI adoption front, growing AI inference demand will drive acceleration in Ali Cloud revenues (+17%); Tencent's progress in ad tech upgrades, A
How to understand US-China tariff-cut agreement?
How to understand US-China tariff-cut agreement?
BIG TECH WEEKLY | AAPL Stabbed GOOG For What? NVDA’s Relief On Ease AI Chip Rules？
Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Gold Pauses, Crypto Takes the Baton; Powell Clashes with TrumpThe May 7 FOMC meeting unsurprisingly paused rate hikes for the third consecutive time. The statement highlighted increased economic uncertainty, explicitly mentioning for the first time the "dual risks of rising unemployment and accelerating inflation." During the press conference, Powell dismissed political pressure, warning that high tariffs could lead to simultaneous increases in inflation and unemployment, hinting that rate cuts might be delayed until the second half of the year. Trump, predictably displeased, called him "Mr. Too Late," further escalating tensions between the White House and the Fed. Earlier, "New Bond King" Gundlach warned that inflation could exceed 4% by year
BIG TECH WEEKLY | AAPL Stabbed GOOG For What? NVDA’s Relief On Ease AI Chip Rules？
Coinbase’s Double Whammy: Low Volatility + Regulation—Can Diversification Help?
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ reported Q1 2025 results after the bell on Thursday, and overall performance was weaker than market expectations, with shares down about 3.2% after the bell.The company's Q1 profit missed expectations, primarily driven by lower trading volumes due to declining volatility in the crypto market, which in turn weighed on revenue performance.Q1 results were slightly below expectations and guidance for Q2 results was relatively weak, but the volatility in the cryptocurrency markets over the past few months led to a decline in trading volumes on the platform, which was also expected by investors.Results and market feedbackOverall Q1 results were down slightly sequentially, with revenue of $2.03 billion, slightly below the ma
Coinbase’s Double Whammy: Low Volatility + Regulation—Can Diversification Help?
Cloudflare Earnings Breakdown: Short-Term Pressure, But AI & Edge Computing Remain Key
$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ reported after-hours earnings on May 9, 2025Q1 results were solid, with revenue and adjusted EPS largely in line with expectations, with enterprise customer growth being the biggest highlight.Meanwhile, the company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $2.09B, an increase of about +20% from last year, which also surprised the market.Despite short-term challenges in the macro-economy and the industry's purchasing pace, the company is optimistic about its full-year revenue target, and the market is reacting positively to its long-term growth potential.Going forward, it is still important to focus on these factors such as the company's competitive strategy in the security sector, its ability to control costs, and the progres
Cloudflare Earnings Breakdown: Short-Term Pressure, But AI & Edge Computing Remain Key
Disney Magic Returns: Q2 Streaming Profits, Parks Become Cash Cow, New Abu-Dhabi Park
$Walt Disney(DIS)$ Q2 FY2025 results were strong, with streaming and theme parks driving significant profitability and investment appeal.Management remains optimistic about the full-year business outlook and the stock price reacted positively.Performance and market feedbackCore performance greatly exceeded expectationsRevenue: Q2 FY2025 overall revenue reached $23.6B, +7% yoy, exceeding market expectation of $23.05B ~ $23.17B;Profit: Operating profit increased by 15% to $4.4B, pre-tax profit increased significantly to $3.1B from $0.7B in the same period last year; Adjusted EPS was $1.45, up 20% from $1.21 in the same period last year, and higher than the market's expectation of $1.20.Operating metrics:Disney+ subscriptions increased by a net 1.4 mi
Disney Magic Returns: Q2 Streaming Profits, Parks Become Cash Cow, New Abu-Dhabi Park
Applovin fight against shorts with incredible margin, share +14%
$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ after-hours earnings report was a far cry from $Unity Software Inc.(U)$ pre-market.Despite five short-sale reports on its head, APP fought back with a margin beat and a 113% rise in free cash flow for the quarter, further bolstering the company's buyback.Performance and Market FeedbackExceeded advertising growth and earnings expectationsQ1 revenue was $1.5 billion, up a whopping 40% year-over-year.Adjusted EBITDA rose 83% to $1 billion, with a 68% margin.Of that, the advertising business contributed $1.16 billion, a 71% jump year-over-year, while its own app was divested in May.On the profit side, adjusted EBITDA was $943 million, with a horrible 81% margin, up 600 basis points YoY
Applovin fight against shorts with incredible margin, share +14%
Unity 25Q1: Better But Still Aching
$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ reports Q1 Earnings Before Market Open on May 7.The overall Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, particularly in terms of profit improvement, demonstrating management’s efforts during the transition period. However, the Q2 guidance was less optimistic than market expectations, and the shutdown of services in China also created headwinds for Grow Solutions revenue. Investor sentiment remains divided.Performance and Market ReactionQ1 core performance beat expectations, though ongoing adjustments to the product portfolio indicate the company is still in transition.Revenue: $435M (-5.5% YoY), primarily due to product line adjustments (portfolio reset), leading to declines in Create/Grow Solutions revenue.Impr
Unity 25Q1: Better But Still Aching
TWLO 10 Day Winning Sparking SaaS, Still Too Conservative？
$Twilio(TWLO)$ , a leader in SaaS, jumped 9% at one point right after its stock performance earnings report, and then rose for 10 consecutive trading days.The company's excellent Q1 results, along with strong FY25 guidance, led to a surge in investor confidence.Even some investment banks believe the updated 2025 guidance is still too conservative.Performance and Market FeedbackOverall Q1 revenue of $1.17B, +12% yoy, topped estimates of $1.14B, achieving double-digit revenue growth for the third consecutive quarter.Communications revenue was $1.097B, +13% yoy.On the earnings front, Non-GAAP operating income was $213M. net income was $20.02M, a sharp improvement from the net loss in Q1 2024. eps was $1.14, well ahead of expectations of $0.94Investme
TWLO 10 Day Winning Sparking SaaS, Still Too Conservative？
YTD Winner! Why These 10 SPX Stocks Outperformed in 2025?
As of the close on May 6, 2025, the 10 best-performing companies in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ are listed below. Although the “Magnificent 7” tech giants are absent, the list still highlights notable sector leaders. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Key Highlights:Industry Leaders: All of these companies are leaders in their respective niches (e.g., CVS in pharmaceutical retail, PM in tobacco transformation, UBER in mobility, VZ in telecom, CRWD in cybersecurity, etc.).Earnings Beat Expectations: Most companies delivered double-digit earnings growth and raised full-year guidance.Aligned with Market Themes: Themes like healthcare, gold, AI, and recovery attracted capital inflows.Valuation Recovery: Some of t
YTD Winner! Why These 10 SPX Stocks Outperformed in 2025?
DOGE Impact Delayed? Palantir’s Gov Biz Strong, Valuation Concerns Grow
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ is the best-performing component of the S&P 500 so far this year, with shares up 64% YTD, completely ignoring the 2025 trend of a general decline in tech stocks.Meanwhile Painful Death has validated short-term growth momentum (U.S. political and corporate demand), but the market has a very low tolerance for internationalization stagnation and DOGE risk at high valuations, and investors have seen a lot of profit-taking.The market is currently focused on the following three main points:Whether US defense contracts (resume) accelerating in the second half of the year;Whether international commercial revenues can be repaired (if corporate IT budgets adjust after tariffs fall);Gross margin changes from AI investme
DOGE Impact Delayed? Palantir’s Gov Biz Strong, Valuation Concerns Grow
BIG TECH WEEKLY | Why MSFT is the winner of surprise?
Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Bessent Reasons Rate-CutsTariff Shock Moves Forward — U.S. consumer sectors are generally facing a downturn in sales, rising costs, and squeezed profits. This includes companies like McDonald’s, Yum! Brands (KFC/Pizza Hut), Starbucks, Domino’s, and Hershey’s. Many of these companies cater to lower- to middle-income groups, and consumption downgrades are leading these consumers to cut back on non-essential spending. Economic uncertainty is spreading.April ADP employment numbers released on Wednesday showed an increase of only 62,000 jobs, far below expectations and the lowest in nine months. The decline was primarily in education and health services, possibly due to the aftermath of the DOGE healthcare rule, while the impact of tariffs might not
BIG TECH WEEKLY | Why MSFT is the winner of surprise?
AAPL 25Q2: iPhone Beat, Tariff Trouble Ahead, China Struggle, AI Holds Future Growth
On May 1, $Apple(AAPL)$ released its financial results for the second fiscal quarter ended March 2025. The company’s overall performance slightly exceeded market expectations, with core business lines remaining resilient. However, as prior investor concerns were validated, Apple’s share price fell by over 4% in after-hours trading.Both revenue and earnings surpassed consensus forecasts this quarter. The Services segment once again set a new record and significantly contributed to margin expansion. Performance in the Greater China region slightly outpaced earlier conservative expectations.Nonetheless, Apple faces multiple challenges, including a potential $900 million increase in tariff-related costs in Q3, persistent demand pressures in China, and
AAPL 25Q2: iPhone Beat, Tariff Trouble Ahead, China Struggle, AI Holds Future Growth
Q1 US Airlines: Lower Costs Can't Offset Weak Demand
Most airlines have now released their Q1 2025 earnings, reflecting a pattern of "falling costs overshadowed by weak demand." While declining fuel prices provided some breathing room, rising labor costs and sluggish domestic demand weighed heavily on profits. Airlines with higher international exposure (e.g., United Airlines) performed relatively better, whereas low-cost carriers reliant on domestic leisure travel (e.g., Frontier, $JetBlue Airways(JBLU)$ faced more severe challenges. Industry Overview: Weak Demand Pressures Earnings, Mixed Cost DynamicsIn Q1 2025, the U.S. airline industry was under dual pressure from weak demand and elevated costs. Industry-wide profit growth stalled, with the following core characteristics:Demand Weakness Drives
Q1 US Airlines: Lower Costs Can't Offset Weak Demand
BIG TECH WEEKLY | Google’s Earnings: Too Much Fear, Too Little Reality; A Bounce Amid Rate Cut Drama
Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Powell’s “Rate Cut” Mini-DramaTrump repeatedly pressured Powell with inflammatory comments and even threatened to replace him, triggering a market “panic” at the start of the week. As Treasury Secretary Bessent clarified in his speech on April 23: “America First” doesn’t mean “America Alone.” Trump later softened his tone (backed off?) and stated he had no intent to replace Powell. This easing of tension helped fuel the market’s sharp rebound in subsequent days. The core of Trump’s message was a call for rate cuts, which ironically aligns with current market sentiment.Why does the market also want rate cuts? Because the clear shift in trade policy is expected to impact the real economy in Q2 and beyond. Both corporate profits and consumer confi
BIG TECH WEEKLY | Google’s Earnings: Too Much Fear, Too Little Reality; A Bounce Amid Rate Cut Drama
GOOG Surges On Q1 Earning: 3 Anxieties Solved
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ earnings jumped 5% after the bell, mainly to address three market anxieties:The impact of AI on the advertising business is not reflected in the results, the loss of market share is really excessive concernCapital expenditure expenditure maintenance, AI competition continues, maintain the guidance of hardware manufacturers $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ E-commerce advertising will have an impact, but too much billing, DMA antitrust case has a program and has been accrued, the extent of which remains to be seen, and not as pessimistic as the market billingPerformance and market feedbackAnnounced strong FY2025 Q1 results th
GOOG Surges On Q1 Earning: 3 Anxieties Solved
Should I Sell GOLD?
Gold is really too fierce for a while, the past year directly up 50%, sitting on the "most beautiful boy" throne.In the face of this strong performance, has been 3300 U.S. dollars / ounce price, the price of the yuan close to 1100 yuan, many people began to entangle an old problem - is it time to sell gold?Unlike stocks, bonds can rely on PE, price-earnings ratio, interest rate pivot, CPI and other indicators to assess the "fair value" of gold, gold is a hard currency without income, valuation standards, to put it bluntly, is to look at the market atmosphere and macro expectations.From the historical point of view, the gold price has been in the high, but not to the limit!Historically it's not uncommon for gold to rise 2-4 times after a few key breakouts.Like 1972, 1978, 2008, these time p
Should I Sell GOLD?
NAND+Logic Boom! Lam's Conservative Outlook with Long-Term High Target
$Lam Research(LRCX)$ 2025Q3 Earnings Outperform, Revenue and Earnings Significantly Beat Expectations, Operational Efficiency and Gross Margin Improvement Significantly, Capital Expenditures Accelerate Layout for the Future, and the Company is Optimistic for Subsequent Quarters.Core viewDual-engine growth: NAND technology upgrade (+40% QoQ) and logic chip advanced process (foundry revenue +15% YoY) together drive performance beyond expectation.Gross margin resilience: supply chain management capability is highlighted, but may face $200M-$300M/QoQ inflationary cost pressure in the future.Geo-balancing: China market revenue share is stable, showing the company's ability to flexibly deal with export control.Guidance caution: 25Q4 revenue guidance of
NAND+Logic Boom! Lam's Conservative Outlook with Long-Term High Target
Recession-Proof? ServiceNow Strong Q1, Raises Guidance, AI Pays Off!
$ServiceNow(NOW)$ Strong Q1 FY2025 Earnings Performance Drives Shares Significantly Higher After HoursCore InsightsGrowth resilience highlighted: management raised guidance despite cautious IT spending environment, reflecting deep product moat (RPO +24% YoY to $18B).AI commercialization speeding up: from "technology story" to actual revenue generation, 2025 may be the inflection point of AI contribution.Strong upgrade guidance: current demand resilience exceeds expectations, customers regard ServiceNow as a "must-have" rather than an optional tool.If the economic downturn leads to a contraction of corporate IT budgets, it may affect the pace of expansion of small and medium-sized customers (current revenue concentration: Top 50 customers account fo
Recession-Proof? ServiceNow Strong Q1, Raises Guidance, AI Pays Off!
Musk’s U-Turn: “Less DOGE, More Tesla” – Will $25K EV Be the Savior?
$ Tesla (TSLA)$ reported Q1 2025 earnings after the bell on April 22, 2025, kicking off the year with a double miss on revenue and profit.Not only did this earnings report mark the worst earnings slide since Q2 2022, management withdrew its full-year growth guidance.However, investors were also heartened by Elon Musk's change in attitude, saying he would reduce his hours at the government department DOGE starting in May and return his focus to Tesla.Markets in the days before the earnings report on the violent shock, the day before the earnings report fell more than 5%, in the case of the market plunge in the week before the earnings report to the options implied volatility also once reached 170%, IV Percentage reached 98%.The actual earnings report
Musk’s U-Turn: “Less DOGE, More Tesla” – Will $25K EV Be the Savior?
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