Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Divergence on US stock marketQ1 of the US stock market experienced rain, so "whether it is a medium-term intervention point" has become a hot topic of discussion.Policies favor the real economy over capital markets, while "soft data" continues to weaken.The core differences and market focus on the direction of the market are: foreign capital flows (Goldman Sachs believes that foreign capital, especially European funds, will continue to inflow, UBS warned that the funds may return to the local market), sustainability of the rebound (Morgan based on the technical aspects of the short-term bullish, but medium-term by the impact of the policy, the Mo emphasized that the fundamentals of the rebound of the limitation of the space of the weak), positi

$POP MART(09992)$ announced its full-year results for FY24 at noon on March 26, demonstrating "both internal and external cultivation" to be the best among Chinese companies. 2024 has verified the triple logic of "globalization expansion + IP iteration + operational leverage".Overall, 2024 verified the triple logic of "globalization expansion + IP iteration + operation leverage", and the performance exceeded expectations:Overseas outbreak: localized operation ability breaks through the regional ceiling, overseas cultural output opens the second growth curve, and domestic refined operation is a hedge against weak consumption.IP vitality: new and old IP synergize, product structure upgrades to high gross profit, scale effect releases profit elastic

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Surges 12% in a Single Day, Biggest Rally of the Year After Two Weeks, Here's Why ......1. Short Squeeze (Short Squeeze was actually pretty much last week); 2. Gamma Squeeze. not uncommon with Tesla's volatility.Below is the March 19th, TSLA's Charm Exposure for the March 28th expiration (which in this chart refers to the overall sensitivity of Tesla's option positions to Charm)An option's Charm (a.k.a. Delta decay) is a second-order Greek letter that measures the rate of change in an option's Delta value over time.Specifically, it reflects the extent to which the passage of time affects the option's delta if the price of the underlying asset remains constant.Charm = ∂Δ/∂T (Δ is Delta and T is the remaining time to expiration)

A number of Hong Kong companies that have announced earnings in the last two weeks have seen a pullback, and even though the results themselves are not a big deal, they have been abandoned by investors.Among them, $SUNNY OPTICAL(02382)$ plunged -11%, while $BYD ELECTRONIC(00285)$ was down 10.65%.Sunny's performance, for example, although not "perfect", but the market is expected to be more adequate.Comprehensive view:Automotive lens of new energy vehicle penetration rate increase, smartphone market recovery (cell phone lens and module shipments increased by 13.1% and 13.3%, respectively, the penetration rate of high-end models to increase), so the revenue side of the growth rate is also more than expect

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: March FOMC: optimistic or pessimistic?The core of the March FOMC meeting was to ease market pressures through technical tapering adjustments, while keeping interest rates high to curb inflation.Despite the rising risk of economic stagflation, the Fed is still trying to find a balance between "premature easing" and "excessive tightening".The most over-expected move was a dramatic slowdown in tapering from April 1st.The Fed reduced the monthly redemption limit on Treasuries from $25 billion to $5 billion (an 80% reduction).The Fed stressed that the slowdown in tapering is not a shift in monetary policy, mainly in response to changes in the balance of the Treasury's cash account (TGA) and the debt ceiling, while optimizing the structure of the pos

When will $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ plunge in convergence?A conclusion: when the SPX has been falling for close to a month (30 days or so), the "momentum" of the VIX decreases dramatically, and if the market does not have an "extreme selloff" (e.g., a meltdown) or if the market does not expect a selloff (implied volatility is extremely high), the VIX could fall in tandem with the SPX.Why would such a scenario occur?Composition of the VIX IndexThe VIX Index is compiled by $Cboe Global Markets, Inc(CBOE)$ to reflect the market's expectation of volatility over the next 30 days through the implied volatility of options on the S&P 500 Ind

$Tencent Music(TME)$ Q4 delivers an earnings report that "exceeds profit expectations, but subscribers have concerns". $TME-SW(01698)$ Short term, high dividend + buyback support share price; medium term need to verify the logic of subscription user growth rebound and ARPPU improvement; long term competitive landscape is still the biggest variable.Performance and Market FeedbackCore Financial PerformanceTotal Revenue: Q4 $7.46bn (+8.2% yoy), vs. $7.29bn expected; full year $28.4bn (+2.3% yoy)Adjusted net income: Q4 2.5 billion yuan (+43% yoy), expected 2.23 billion yuan; full year 8.14 billion yuan (+30.7% yoy)Online music subscription revenue: full year $15.23 billion (+25.9% yoy), Q4 $4.03 billion (+17.

After the bell on March 20, $Micron Technology(MU)$ will report Q2 FY2025 earnings.Due to price hike expectations in, since the beginning of the year outperformed $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , in the early March wave of the selloff is also quite tenacious performance.Earnings date-weighted implied stock price volatility of ±11.3% is relatively volatile.Expectations for current-quarter results are not too widely divergent at this point, with $Citigroup(C)$ even expecting EPS may improve somewhat: (Citi vs. Consensus)Revenue: $7.9 billion vs $7.9 billionGross Margin: 37.5% vs 37.5%Adjusted EPS: $1.29 vs $1.26But the focus

The consumer market in January-February was characterized by "policy-driven high growth, upgrading and differentiation".The old-for-new policy has given an obvious boost to communications, home appliances and other categories, while service consumption and rural consumption have become new growth points.OverallChina's total retail sales of consumer goods in January-February amounted to RMB 8,373.1 billion, up 4.0% year-on-year (YoY), accelerating by 0.5 percentage points from the annual growth rate in 2023 (3.5%), indicating a sustained recovery in the consumer market.Among them, retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles amounted to RMB 7,683.8 billion, with an even higher growth rate of 4.8%, suggesting that automobile consumption was a drag on the overall growth rate. 0.35% ye

Big-Tech’s PerformanceWeekly macro storyline: Powell work with Trump?Although Powell did not pay much attention to Trump, but Trump is repeatedly shouted Powell to cut interest rates.This week's CPI data was unexpectedly lower than expected, the super core services CPI is back to the mid-23 year level, and housing data is generally delayed, and from the industry data in the previous months, the probability of future downward movement is greater.Although the Fed mainly looks at PCE, overall inflation is trending downward, and inflation is currently an important bridge between Powell and Trump (both want to drop).But inflation now has tariffs as a variable, and Powell is not willing to take "depends on the data" this kind of rhetoric to deal with the market (because the tariffs are going to

Performance and Market Feedback $UiPath(PATH)$ financial performance for the fourth quarter of FY2025 is as follows:Revenue: Revenue for the fourth quarter was $424M, up 5% year-over-year.Adjusting for the impact of foreign exchange, revenue was $426MARR: Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $166.6B for the year ending January 31, 2025, up 14% year-over-yearNet New ARR: Q4 Net New ARR of $60MNet Retention Rate: 110 percentGAAP Gross Profit Margin: 85%; Non-GAAP Gross Profit Margin: 87GAAP operating income: $34 million; non-GAAP operating income: $134 millionEarnings per share (EPS): $0.26, beating expectations of $0.20Despite the EPS beat, UiPath's shares plunged 15.89% in after-hours trading, likely due to broader market uncertainty as well as speci

$Adobe(ADBE)$ outperformed in Q1 of FY2025, but guidance was weaker and AI product monetization capabilities will have a validation window after Summit.Performance and Market FeedbackKey financial indicators exceeded expectations across the boardOperating Income: $5.71B (+11%YoY), beating market expectation of $5.66B; Adjusted EPS: $5.08 (+13%YoY), higher than expectation of $4.97Operating cash flow: $2.48B (+18%YoY), supporting 7M share repurchaseRemaining Performance Obligations (RPO): $19.69BSolid growth in core businessesDigital Media Revenue: +11% YoY, with Creative Cloud subscription growth acceleratingDigital Experience Revenue: +10% YoY, with increased penetration of enterprise-side AI solutionsMarket reaction and valuation gameShares fell