DecodeMarkets
05-16

Alibaba Q1: Solid Numbers, Overblown Reaction

Alibaba ($BABA) reported Q1 earnings that slightly missed expectations:

• Revenue: $32.6B, +7% YoY (vs. $33.3B est.)

• Adj. EPS: $1.73B, +23% YoY (vs. $1.78B est.)

The stock is down ~6% pre-market. But the underlying results are far from weak.

Every major business segment grew ~6% YoY. International Commerce and Cloud show early signs of benefiting from China’s stimulus. Margins remain intact.

$BABA remains a key proxy for China’s economy. The recovery is uneven—but clearly progressing.

Today’s drop? Likely positioning, not fundamentals.

The accumulation continues.

Apple and Alibaba’s AI Deal Under Fire: Will Alibaba Pay the Price?
Over the past few months, U.S. White House and congressional officials have been reviewing Apple’s AI partnership with Alibaba, as Apple plans to bring its Apple Intelligence to China, with Alibaba being one of its key partners. ------------------ Will this scrutiny hinder the launch of Apple AI in China? If so, will iPhone sales in China continue to struggle this year? And could Alibaba’s stock drop to $110 as a result?
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