$S&P 500(.SPX)$ There is a tremendous amount of top calling today. This is important, but first a recap for context.
My risk system fired the alarm bell on February 21, this was well shared. This was the sole reason for outperformance through Q1.
In April I shared thoughts of sentiment (Fear & Greed Index read 3!) and positioning being simultaneously depressed. This combination did well again to mark a local bottom. This was a good trade. (The market rallied another 5%. Happy to have caught 2/3 of the rally)
Most recently for me however is a misstep taking a short sided traded last week. This was quickly cut on Monday. Many more of these will happen, the objective is to limit the number of missteps per year.
There is a lot to review this weekend. Sentiment is one piece of it, X is a good representation of retail sentiment. For now, that feels overwhelmingly tippy top. The forever bears are still bears.
I will write about it in longer format on Sunday. Be on the list. I'm ending the week with two new trades UNH and NVO from 255 and 64 respectively.
My current analysis considers the market heading up, towards new all time highs. The pullbacks along the way should be considered as buying opportunities. Subject to a clean review of charts over the weekend, I don't see the bullish mindset changing. In the best scenario, late bull participants get an opportunity to buy 5650. This will remain the primary outlook until the risk-off system signals another alarm.
More on thoughts to be in the Sunday letter.
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