Hello everyONE! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!1.Should the $.SPX(.SPX)$ rally towards ~5900 (+/- 15) and find rejection, I will think a larger decline is in store than previously shared 5650-5750SimpleFollow me to learn more about analysis!!

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading analysis with you!NAAIM Index at/near levels that marked lows in April & August of last yearSentiment (CNN Fear & Greed) in a similar spot. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Follow me to learn more about analysis!!

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $.SPX(.SPX)$ master analysis visualized> 6000 Good< 6000 Bad2.The S&P 500 outlook in the near terms is very simple.Above 6000 GoodBelow 6000 BadA psychological value plus the proximity of the often referenced 20-d moving average makes the area meaningful. Conditions under surface such as breadth and momentum point to “Bad”On the other hand a 30-50pt rally for the index has become common place, and above 6000 quickly hits pause on the bear thoughts.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with u！1.Really good performance from $Alibaba(BABA)$ , $TENCENT(00700)$ and $JD.com(JD)$ . Continued strength here will make the late November trading shape a bottom for the corrective move.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!

Hello everyone！Today i want to share some trading analysis with you! $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is Cathie Wood's top holding in $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ . Everyone can see Tesla positioned for a breakout, after a few years the 2021 - 2024 periods looks like a wide consolidation of the preceding 2019 - 2021 advance.Tesla consistently above 400 is one of the 'melt-up' ingredients.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!1. $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ The mainstream narrative this year has been too focused on the ARKK ETF being a wealth destroyer, meanwhile the ETF is breaking out of a two and a half year long consolidation. 👀👀👀👀👀👀👀Follow me to learn more about analysis!!

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ in my opinion will be one of the best melt-up trade vehicles. This is a clean breakout out of a multi-year consolidation.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!

$.SPX(.SPX)$ thoughts: The index closed the week down 1.37%, with market breadth shifting negative as more stocks hit new lows than highs across Nasdaq and NYSE markets—even after the recovery Friday. Early October came with slowing momentum, an amber caution sign then.Market dynamics shift quickly, and while each environment has its unique narrative, my approach—focusing on short-term trend, breadth, and momentum makes for a clear-headed, emotion-free strategy. Each vertical line in the chart below is an instance where all three criteria signaled risk-off. Last Thursday all three signals triggered the alarm: we're officially in a risk-off mode, again. The fourth time in 2024.This approach has effectively flagged recent declines, though this year’

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: For the second time this year, 3/3 risk-off criteria are simultaneously on. The last time these criteria set off was April 10 where the market declined an additional 4% before finding stability.Price is below its short term trend, breadth as measured by Net New Highs across the NYSE and Nasdaq markets recorded negative, and momentum is negative. I speculate that with the risk-off criteria setting off the alarm, the index is likely to decline further before this correction is complete. An ideal entry to this idea would be a stalled relief rally at 5450 while all 3 criteria remain active.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://x.com/tomthetrader1

Market thoughts:- Today was a material single day decline. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is below its short term trend. A checkmark on the risk-off criteria. - Despite the daily decline, breadth remained positive with more stocks making new highs than lows. - Overall 2/3 risk-off criteria are active. I will refrain from bearish thoughts until 3/3- The melt-up scenario is on pause with $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ < 45, my trade there has ended with a paper cut. Will reattempt on next close above 45. Will repeat until melt-up transpires or a bear market never enables price to trade above 45- $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ is still above 212, this is a bright spotFollow

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is up 19% year to date— $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ is down 7.5%. In the melt up scenario I think it very possible ARKK outperforms the index. I’m long ARKK— a decent chance Morningstar’s wealth destroyer commentary marked a bottom for the modern day risk on barometer. +2.4% to open the weekFollow me to learn more about analysis!!https://x.com/tomthetrader1/status/1812855310563897806

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ thoughts: The modern day risk on barometer closed above subtly 45 to end last week, and is now above the 50-day moving average. If a character change is underway, this moving average has good record of offering price support.I plan to participate actively in ARKK as price consistently trades above 45. This is my favored 'melt-up' trade. Any closes below 45 terminate the trade attempt. Meaningful exposure to the idea will be marked with a breakout above 52. I expect the initial positioning to generate a few paper cuts before establishing full trade size.If price fails to sustain above 45 I will not be interested, and will monitor broader market risk signals (short term trend, breadth and momentum) that favor the odds of a

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ If a melt-up is underway, I believe small caps will outperform due to a mean reversion effect, like an elastic band. Cathie Wood's $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ has been named the 'wealth destroyer'The ETF has been consolidating sideways for nearly two years. While it may take some time for ARKK to break out, there are two key levels to watch for a change in character. The first is 45, which would move the price above the 50-day moving average, a level that has provided strong support. The second, more critical level is 52. Sustained prices above 52 would signal a visible breakout.For me, this ETF serves as a modern-day risk barometer.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://x.com/

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ thoughts: Week over week market breadth continues to get worse. Throughout all of last week, more stocks made new lows than new highs. I frequently post about breadth, however in my analysis there is three criteria that determine a risk-off environment. Breadth as a stand-alone measure is insufficient.1. Price below the short term trend2. Negative breadth, represented by Net New Highs across NYSE and Nasdaq markets (middle panel)3. Negative Momentum, using the Percentage Price Oscillator (lower panel)When all three trigger, the market shifts to a risk off environment making a decline the next most probable move. Ending last week (and the two weeks before) only 1 of 3 criteria remain active. Similar to the post at the beginning