Mkoh
05-27

Stocks to Watch:

LVMH (MC.PA): Led gains post-delay; its pricing power mitigates some tariff impact, but aspirational buyers may pull back if economic growth slows.

Pandora (PNDORA.CO): Gained after the delay, though its emerging market supply chain exposure (e.g., Thailand, Vietnam) remains a risk.

Risks: Luxury demand is sensitive to economic growth and consumer confidence, which could weaken if trade tensions escalate.

European Banks:

Why They Benefit: Banks like HSBC and Standard Chartered, with Asia exposure, rallied as tariff fears eased, reducing recession risks that could hit loan demand.

Stocks to Watch:

HSBC (HSBA.L): Benefits from reduced trade war risks in Asia and Europe, though still vulnerable to global growth slowdown.

UniCredit (UCG.MI): Gained as EU tariff delays support eurozone economic stability.

Risks: Banks are sensitive to recessionary pressures and higher interest rates, which could rise if inflation spikes.

U.S. Tech (with Tariff Exemptions):

Why They Benefit: The exemption of smartphones, computers, and electronics from Chinese tariffs boosts tech firms reliant on Asian supply chains.

Stocks to Watch:

Apple (AAPL): Relies heavily on China/Taiwan; surged after electronics tariff exemptions. Still down 9% from tariff-related losses, offering a potential entry point.

Nvidia (NVDA): Benefits from tariff exemptions on chips; recent pullback (down 44% from peak) makes it attractive for long-term investors.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): Gains from tariff exemptions and potential supply chain shifts to non-tariffed regions like India.

Risks: Higher Treasury yields and potential Chinese retaliation (145% tariffs) could pressure tech valuations.

U.S. Domestic Producers:

Why They Benefit: Domestic firms like steel, lumber, and autos face less foreign competition due to remaining tariffs on non-EU countries (e.g., China’s 145%).

Stocks to Watch:

Tesla (TSLA): U.S.-focused manufacturing gives it a pricing edge over foreign automakers, though imported component costs are a concern.

Nucor (NUE): Steel producer benefits from 25% tariffs on non-EU steel/aluminum, reducing competition.

General Motors (GM): Surged >3% after Trump’s auto tariff exemption comments; domestic production shields it from import costs.

Risks: Higher input costs from tariffs on raw materials could squeeze margins.

Emerging Market Beneficiaries:

Why They Benefit: Countries like India, Vietnam, and Thailand may see supply chain shifts from China due to high tariffs (145%), boosting local manufacturers.

Stocks to Watch:

Indian ETFs (e.g., INDA): Indian manufacturers could expand in the U.S. market, especially in textiles and semiconductors.

Fed Decision Looms: How Much Longer Can Bull Market Run?
Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its benchmark short-term borrowing rate steady at its meeting this week. The focus will be on the dot plan? ------ How many rate cuts would the dot plan reveal? Will there be drama or bull market catalyst after FOMC decision?
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