"I recently sold all my U.S. stocks because I know I've seen this party scene before. I'll say it again: I'm worried."
Jim Rogers, who has been missing for a long time, recently had a very relaxed exchange with James Connor, CEO of Bloor Street Capital, in a podcast conversation.
Rogers is the co-founder of Quantum Fund and has created one of the most dazzling hedge funds in history with Soros.
He is an adventurer who travels around the world on a motorcycle and measures investment opportunities with his footsteps. He is known as the "world investment wanderer"; he is also one of the first foreign investors to bet heavily on the Chinese market. In 1999, he opened a B-share account on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and bought a large number of Chinese stocks at a low price of 20 cents per share.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had an intersection with Rogers while studying at Yale University and worked as an analytical assistant for his family office.
He commented on Rogers' investment method, "Research, research, and research. He is always looking for major structural changes, and his way of working is to constantly dig up information and verify data."
Now 82 years old, Rogers settled in Singapore to make his children familiar with the Chinese environment. He occasionally provides insights for investors with his sharp vision, rich sense of history, sensitivity to cycles and calm sense of humor.
In this latest conversation, he did not hide his concerns about the current market - he sold all US stocks and believed that the US stock market was on the verge of the end of the party. Rogers admitted that he was holding a large amount of cash, $Gold - main 2508(GCmain)$ and $Silver - main 2507(SImain)$ .
American investor Jim Rogers
On Overvaluation and Speculation
Host: We have talked many times over the past five years about these overvalued markets, these bubbles, and these bubbles seem to continue. What do you think of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq? Do you think we will break through the previous high of 6,100 points, or will we go back to test the low of 4,800 points?
Rogers: I just sold all my US stocks recently because I have seen such a party scene before. I certainly hope that this party can continue for another five years, but it rarely lasts that long.
You see, there are a lot of new people pouring into the market now, and many new people are talking about how fun and easy it is to invest and how easy it is to make money. You probably also read the reports in the media, everything is hyped, especially the Internet.
If you look at what is said on the Internet, you will find that making money seems to be easy. This is of course good and great. I hope that making money can always be so easy, so that everyone can make money easily for a lifetime - although it has never happened in history, but if it can last for a hundred years, of course it would be great. (Laughter)
Historically, whenever we get into this phase, a lot of new people come in and start speculating on whatever they're speculating on, and it usually ends badly.
Maybe this time is different? Remember, this is a very dangerous phrase: "This time is different."
But maybe, maybe this time is different.
But I'll say it again: I'm worried. I've seen parties like this before, and this time, it makes me uneasy.
About Rogers' Portfolio
Host: Let's talk about your investments and your portfolio. You said you hold a large percentage in cash. How much is it in percentage terms?
Rogers: I don't know myself. I don't have a committee to report to. But I know that it is almost entirely in cash now. I have almost sold all my stocks elsewhere, except for some stocks in China and Uzbekistan.
Host: Jim, you have always been a strong supporter of gold and silver. Do you still hold these positions now?
Rogers: I hold a lot of gold and silver. I bought more silver last week, and if the price of gold goes down, I will definitely buy more gold; if the price of silver goes down, I may also add more positions. I am not a seller of gold and silver. I hope that one day my children will inherit this gold and silver, because I really don't see how anyone in the 21st century has any reason to sell gold and silver.
Host: It’s 2025 now and silver is still hovering around $30. What do you think of silver? Why is it so weak? Why haven’t we been able to break through the all-time high of $50?
Rogers: In fact, silver also reached $50 in 1980. So, it has reached $50 twice in history.
So why is it lagging now? My only explanation is that we don’t seem to be experiencing an inflationary boom now, and we don’t have a commodity bubble or commodity boom like before.
I would have expected silver to rise, and I am a buyer of silver. As I said just now, I bought more silver recently. It would be best if the price could stay low, so that I can continue to buy, and I will continue to buy.
Host: Do you buy physical silver? What about mining stocks?
Rogers: No, I don’t buy mining stocks. Mining stocks are certainly great and explosive investments if you are willing to put in the effort, do your homework, and get the timing right. But I’m too lazy.
Host: You mentioned that you have a lot of cash, I guess that's in some short-term bonds?
Rogers: Yeah, mainly Treasury bonds. Most of my cash is in dollars and dollar-denominated instruments.
Host: I'm glad you mentioned the dollar, because everyone is worried that the dollar is under pressure and will continue to weaken. What do you think of the dollar? I'm talking about the long term, like the next year, the next five years.
Rogers: Those who are worried about the dollar are absolutely right. The United States is now the largest debtor country in the history of the world.
I hold a lot of dollars myself. My plan is that the dollar will have another wave of rise, and there will be a final climax, and I hope I am smart enough to sell the dollar before that. Because I know that we are getting closer and closer to the end.
I'm not saying that it is the end now, but it is getting closer and closer.
There are too many people in the market who are bullish on the dollar, too many people are long on the dollar, and the debt situation of the United States... Again, I really can't believe that people in Washington can't read the books? !
I see, I know what the debt is, and it's getting more and more outrageous.
The next question you should ask is: "Where are you going to put all this money?" This is the most important question for me this year.
But I don't know.
I don't see any competitor to the dollar yet, and I don't know where the money will go after I sell the dollar, which makes me worried.
It has to go somewhere... Maybe it should be the RMB? But the RMB is not a freely convertible currency yet. Of course, they are slowly moving forward, but it's not at the stage where the RMB can become a global alternative currency.
So I really don't have an answer. If you have an answer, don't say it on the spot, send me a private message (laughs).
Host: Finally, do you have anything to say to everyone?
Rogers: Be careful. Be very, very careful. More and more people are getting too excited and too confident, and that often leads to trouble.
Be careful.
I sincerely hope that you all get rich and retire early, but remember, be careful.
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