Key TakeawaysJP Morgan analysts Zander Brown observe investors prioritizing gold over Bitcoin as a safe-haven during the recent market.Gold ETFs attracted significant net inflows ($21.1 billion in Q1 2025), while Bitcoin ETFs experienced three consecutive months of outflows.Factors like the global trade war and economic downturn concerns are pushing investors towards the perceived safety of gold.JP Morgan: Investors Prefer Gold Over Bitcoin as a Safe-HavenIs Bitcoin losing its appeal as a safe-haven asset? Amid market turbulence, gold is being chosen over Bitcoin as a safe haven by investors, raising questions about its “digital gold” narrative, as stated by JP Morgan analysts in a report on Thursday. While gold ETFs saw massive inflows, Bitcoin faced declining interest, prompting a closer

iQIYI, Inc. ( $iQiyi Inc.(IQ)$ , HOLD)1Q25 Preview and Model Updates; Source: US Tiger Securities ResearchWe are maintaining our HOLD rating but decreasing PT to $2 (was $2.5) as we fine-tune our estimates ahead of 1Q earnings.Our 1Q membership revenue estimate remains largely unchanged. However, we are lowering our advertising revenue estimate by 7%, reflecting softer-than-expected brand advertising demand. Conversely, we are raising revenue estimates for content distribution and "Other" segments, as some content was pulled forward into 1Q, and one of the company’s mobile games showed notable strength during the quarter. As a result, our total revenue estimate remains broadly unchanged.Source: US Tiger Securities ResearchSource: US Tiger Securities

As volatility returns today, with the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ down over -3%, gold has surged by another +$100/oz. Meanwhile, the US Dollar index, $ $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ , is pushing below 100 for the first time since September 2024. If equities revisit their lows, $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ could surge well above $3,500/oz. By@KobeissiLetterHeading into this week, our premium members took shorts in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ . We called for a drop below 5325 which was just crossed. Gold has been a key leading indicator for all risky assets.Gold is trading like we are in a depression: Over the last 20 years,

$Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ has been on a tear. It recently skyrocketed above $3,000 per ounce after a blistering rally last year.But most folks misunderstand the current rally. That's because it wasn't retail investors driving the gold price boom... It was the central banks.Central banks bought 18 tonnes of gold in January alone. This continues the trend from 2024, when central banks added 1,045 tonnes to their reserves.Last year wasn't a one-off, either. Central banks more than doubled their gold-buying in 2023 from the two years prior. And while some institutions pause purchases from time to time, others tend to pick up the slack.This trend is changing, though. Now, retail investors are beginning to buy. And as I'll share today, that's anoth

Former US Secretary of State Blinken commented on the tariff policy: The world will no longer trust the United States, which is not good for us.A weakening US dollar and 145% tariffs will be a double whammy for US consumers.Why is the $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ 's downward trend so important for $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ investors? Because of its inverse correlation with gold price Indeed, when the world's reserve currency is doing poorly, gold plays its role as store of value Below: $DXY VS M2-adjusted gold (inverted scale) @ValueSeeker_The DXY is currently revering towards its Purchasing Power Parity, after years of overvaluation.@ValueSeeker_The DXY is now breaking its multi-year suport

Trump's tariff policies have had significant impacts on the secondary market.Read more>>Greg Boland:The long and short of it: Q1 ends with ‘Liberation Day’ and plenty of red ink @OptionskiwiWhat You Should Know About Trump’s Tariffs by @Tiger_James OoiQuick Thoughts on Trump’s Tariffs @Tiger_James OoiThe Impact of Trump Tariffs on US. ETF Performa

After the recent rebound, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has returned to levels similar to those seen just before Trump won the U.S. election last November. In effect, after a "Trump rally" that priced in the positives—such as deregulation and tax cuts—and the recent pullback that began to price in risks like tariffs, deficit reduction, immigration restrictions, and broader policy uncertainty, the market has round-tripped to where it started.To be honest, the potential announcement of tariffs on April 2nd. Intuitively, if the market continues to rally leading into April 2, then the reaction will likely depend on whether the tariff measures exceed or fall short of expectations. But if the market pulls back again before that date, the tariff announcement m

( $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ , HOLD) - Slowing Growth and Rising Investments Create Near-Term Uncertainty; Downgrading to HOLD We are downgrading PDD to HOLD but maintaining our price target of $130 (unchanged) following below-consensus 4Q revenue and profit performance. 4Q revenue grew 24% y/y, decelerating from 44% in 3Q, and was 2%/3% below Tiger/Street.Revenue missed. By segment, online marketing services revenue increased 17% y/y, compared to 24% in 3Q, marking a slowdown relative to domestic peers. This segment came in 1% above Tiger/Street. Transaction services revenue grew 33% year-over-year, a sharp deceleration from 72% in the previous quarter, and was 5% below Tiger and 7% below the Street, likely due to tougher comp for Temu and slowi

$TENCENT(00700)$ -HK, BUY) - Solid 4Q Results Driven by Robust Games and Ads; Momentum Set to Continue in 2025; Maintain BUY and Increase PT to HK$590We maintain our BUY rating and increase our price target to HK$590 (previously HK$450) after Tencent reported largely in-line 4Q24 results, with revenue and profitability slightly ahead consensus. Total revenue grew 11% y/y to RMB172.4B, exceeding consensus by 3%, primarily driven by stronger-than-expected VAS and ad segments.Domestic game revenue accelerated to +23% y/y in 4Q24 (vs. +14% y/y in 3Q24), driven by robust performance from key evergreen titles including Honour of Kings, Peacekeeper Elite, and VALORANT, along with solid contributions from new launches like DnF Mobile and Delta Force. Int

Wednesday's FOMC meeting largely aligned with our expectations from yesterday. Wednesday Focus: FOMC Would be Neutral But Equity Remain ExpensiveThe dot plot essentially built upon the December projections while incorporating recent macroeconomic trends, and Powell’s key message was to "continue monitoring policy developments." With this risk event now settled, the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ retreated to 20, helping to lift the market.Let’s see the Wallstreet’s views on Fed’s Dovish Message first:$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ : Rate unchanged, future moves depend on next three months.$Goldman Sachs(GS)$

1. Market Commentary on Wednesday’s FOMCAfter two consecutive days of rebound, the market resumed its decline today. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained a total of 2.78% over Friday and Monday, slightly above the historical average rebound of +2.45% following a 10% correction, making it a relatively normal occurrence (see last Thursday Commentary).The most important macro event this week is Wendesday’s FOMC meeting. Based on interest rate futures pricing, the probability of a rate cut tomorrow is only 1%. We believe this pricing is reasonable—economic weakness is not yet evident enough, and uncertainty surrounding the inflationary impact of tariff policies gives the Fed no reason to cut rates at this moment. Therefore, the market's focus will be on the

$Li Auto(LI)$ (LI, BUY) - Mixed 4Q; Cautious 1Q/2025 Outlook Amid Pricing Pressure; Maintain BUY and $30 PTWe maintain our BUY rating and $30 price target following Li Auto's mixed 4Q24 results, which beat Tiger and consensus on profitability, but cautious 1Q25 outlook reflects ongoing ASP pressure and shifting product mix.4Q revenue 2%/1% below Tiger/Street. Li Auto delivered 158,696 vehicles (+20% y/y, +4% q/q), 3% below Tiger, 2% below consensus, but still within guidance range (160,000-170,000 units). ASP of RMB 269K was 1% above Tiger and consensus, showing resilience despite competitive pressure. Total revenue of RMB 44.3B, 2% below Tiger and 1% below consensus, driven by slight delivery shortfall. Vehicle sales of RMB 42.6B, 2% below Tiger, 1

By Bo Pei，US Tiger ResearchI didn’t write my Market Commentary for the first three days of this week—partly because I felt the timing wasn’t right yet (the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ hadn’t dropped 10%) and partly because I was taking time to think and analyze how this market downturn might play out.To get straight to the point: in the short term, I believe this could be a good opportunity to buy the dip in U.S. equities, as the market is likely to see a rebound. However, the medium-term outlook (over the next few months) remains concerning.Short-Term OutlookHere’s why I think a short-term rebound is likely. First, let’s look at historical probabilities.The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has now declined 10% from its recen

$JD.com(JD)$ (JD, BUY) - Beat-and-Raise Quarter Fueled by Trade-Ins and Demand Recovery; Strong Momentum Expected to Continue in 1H; Maintain BUY and Raise PT to $50 We are maintaining our BUY rating and increasing PT to $50 (was $45) after JD reported beat-across-the-board 4Q results, and as we believe the strong momentum will likely sustain in the 1H. JD total revenue grew 13% y/y in 4Q (accelerating 8pts from 3Q), with JDR revenue up 15% y/y (vs. +6% y/y in 3Q). Moreover, 4Q gross profit grew 22% y/y, accelerating 6pts from 3Q, and was 9pts faster than revenue growth, with gross margin up 110bps y/y (vs. +165bps in 3Q), again, due to supply chain efficiency improvement and revenue mix shift to higher margin business lines. 3P growth continu

I was on vacation last week, so here’s a brief analysis of key events and their impact on capital markets.Last week, the market continued its downward trend, with a sharp rebound late on Friday likely driven by month-end fund rebalancing and a gamma squeeze triggered by the expiration of a large volume of options and the rebalancing. This does not indicate a shift in market sentiment. Therefore, today's decline should not be too surprising. However, note that the S&P 500 is only down about 4% from its peak. The reason why investor sentiment feels particularly bearish is that previously popular stocks, such as $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , and some speculative small caps, have experienced sig