$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ 🚀🤖📈 Nvidia’s AI Supremacy: From Blackwell to Rubin, $NVDA Charts a Course Toward $200 📈🤖🚀
Trading like a seasoned Wall Street analyst, I’m captivated by Nvidia’s ($NVDA) trajectory as it carves a path through the complexities of today’s macro backdrop. I entered $NVDA at $141.39 on 3 June 2025, and the setup screams conviction. We’ve already reclaimed the May highs, and with my position up +2.92% unrealised, I believe we’re heading toward $165 short-term and $200 before year-end. Below is my platinum-tier breakdown of why this setup remains one of the most asymmetric opportunities in global equities.
📉 Technical Framework: A Breakout Poised for Continuation
Nvidia’s price action is textbook bullish. A descending wedge breakout has triggered, supported by a classic cup-with-handle formation. The 50-day moving average has now crossed above the 200-day, forming a golden cross, which historically precedes explosive uptrends. Current support holds at $137.00, with price pressing into minor resistance at $148.50. A close above that unlocks the 52-week high at $153.13, with a measured breakout target in the $165–172 range.
• MACD: Turned green, climbing above the zero line with strong histogram follow-through
• RSI: Sitting at 68, confirming strength but not overextended
• Volume: Surging post-earnings, signaling institutional conviction
• Options Flow: Significant July and September call activity at $155, $165, and $180 strikes
• Dark Pools: Block trades show accumulation below $140, indicating stealth buying by smart money
This breakout isn’t just technical, it’s being supported by narrative momentum and structural positioning across the AI sector.
🌍 Macroeconomic Context: Headwinds Meet Structural Tailwinds
The macro backdrop is messy. Tariff tensions are escalating, with a potential Section 232 semiconductor probe underway. But Nvidia has quietly derisked China exposure, reducing its revenue share from 21.5% in FY2023 to just 12.5% in FY2025. The Federal Reserve’s pause in May introduced further ambiguity, but Nvidia’s moat remains intact.
Global AI demand is now in a secular expansion phase. Enterprises are shifting from proof-of-concept to full production deployment, favouring Nvidia’s CUDA ecosystem. Its end-to-end platform remains unmatched in flexibility, integration, and software lock-in, marginalising AMD, Intel, and Huawei in the process. Even in a high-rate world, capital is chasing computational scale, and Nvidia sits at the very core.
🧠 Recent Catalysts: Blackwell, Q1 Earnings, and Full-Stack AI Dominance
Nvidia’s Q1 FY2025 earnings blew past expectations:
• Revenue: $44.1B (+69% YoY), beating consensus by $800M
• EPS: $0.81 vs $0.75 est
• Free Cash Flow: $24B
• Data Center Growth: +73% YoY
• Piotroski Score: 9 ~ maximum balance sheet strength
Jefferies upgraded Nvidia to its highest-conviction buy list, assigning a $185 price target. Analyst Blayne Curtis projects gross margins rising to 70–80% in 2025, thanks to Blackwell’s rollout and upgrades to NVLink and Spectrum-X. The Rubin architecture, expected in 2026, will seamlessly extend this lead due to its rack-type compatibility.
Geopolitical friction remains a risk. CEO Jensen Huang confirmed a $5.5B revenue impact this year from U.S. restrictions on H20 chips bound for China. But Nvidia is adapting quickly, with Alphabet and Meta stepping in to backfill demand. The broader sector, from ASML to SK Hynix, rallied on Nvidia’s earnings, affirming its role as a bellwether.
🎯 Forward Watchlist: What I’m Tracking Next
1. Price Targets: Break above $148.50 and hold opens $153.13. Beyond that, $165 is in play by July. I’m projecting $180–$200 into Q3 as Blackwell volume ramps.
2. Earnings Momentum: Q2 earnings in August are expected to hit $46B revenue. Any upside could trigger another re-rating.
3. Tariff Risk: Monitor U.S. Commerce decisions on semiconductor import duties. Nvidia’s fabless model and diversification limit direct exposure, but sentiment remains sensitive.
4. Sector Moves: Huawei and Alibaba are pitching supercomputers. Watch for hyperscaler capex trends from Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.
5. Technicals: If we fail to hold $137.00, a retest of $130 is possible, but I view that as a high-conviction buy zone, not a reversal.
📈 Valuation Snapshot
• Market Cap: $3.45T
• Float-Adjusted EV: $3.31T
• P/E (FWD): 32.62
• P/S: 23.22
• ROA: 53.24%
• ROE: 115.46%
• EPS CAGR (2024–2028): 29%
• Revenue CAGR (2024–2028): 31%
Nvidia trades at 21.8x projected 2028 earnings, which is elevated but warranted by its AI infrastructure monopoly, margin expansion, and accelerating adoption of sovereign AI stacks globally.
💬 Conclusion: Nvidia Is the Market’s Apex Asset
This isn’t just a growth stock, it’s the foundation of modern intelligence infrastructure. Nvidia has reclaimed its crown as the world’s most valuable company, and it’s earned that title with 1,498% returns over five years and a 74% CAGR. The blend of dominant fundamentals, accelerating adoption, geopolitical flexibility, and technical momentum makes this a rare play.
I’m holding with conviction, targeting $165 into July and $200 by December. In a market where most tech names are still chasing product-market fit, Nvidia is already selling out into demand curves. If you’re looking for the sharpest tool in the AI shed, $NVDA is it.
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