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06-05

🌏 China–US Talks Again? Tariff Risk, Political Noise & Market Hopes

Markets dipped after the ISM data but quickly rebounded on chatter of a potential high-level US–China meeting. Classic geopolitical seesaw — tension, tweet, then tentative recovery.

📉 Last week's Trump comments re-ignited tariff worries. But if talks do resume, expect semis, EVs, and Chinese ADRs to get a short-term lift. I'm keeping an eye on $Alibaba(BABA)$  , $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  , and $NIO Inc.(NIO)$  — high beta, high news sensitivity.

🧠 My take? We've seen this movie before. Headline-driven pops are often short-lived unless backed by structural progress. That said, I'm cautiously holding long positions in large-cap indices (SPX, QQQ), while rotating out of overly China-dependent small caps for now.

📌 If S&P 500 clears 6,000 decisively, it'll likely be macro sentiment — not tariffs — driving it. Still, tariffs remain a wildcard risk as we head into US election season.

SeptemBEAR is here: Are Your Portfolio Ready for Volatility?
In September, the VIX may fly as we may see September Effect hit again. ------- 1. Is the market in danger with September effect approaching? 2. What's your strategy to cope with risks?
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