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06-11

πŸ“ˆ Low CPI, Soft Landing, and a Rate Cut? The S&P 500 Could Be Entering Euphoria Phase

The May CPI surprise β€” headline at 2.4% and core at 2.8% β€” marks the clearest disinflation signal we've had all year. This isn't just data noise; it reinforces the market's bet that the Fed will pivot to cuts by September, possibly initiating a late-cycle melt-up.

🧠 Macro Implication

We now have a rare alignment: slowing inflation, resilient job market, and a Fed likely to ease before the economy cracks. Historically, this setup tends to favour large-cap equities, especially rate-sensitive sectors like tech, consumer discretionary, and comms.

πŸ“Š Market Structure

With the S&P breaking past 6,000, we're no longer just dealing with a recovery rally β€” this looks increasingly like a full-blown FOMO phase. Breadth is improving, volatility remains suppressed, and institutional money is rotating back into equities after being underweight for most of 2024.


🚨 Risk to Watch

The biggest near-term risk isn't valuation β€” it's positioning. If inflation re-accelerates (especially services) or if June's FOMC minutes lean hawkish, expect a shakeout. But unless those triggers hit, the momentum remains up.


πŸ“My Call:

Short-term target: 6,180

Medium-term ceiling (Q3): 6,400 if Fed confirms September cut

Tactical watchlist: $Apple(AAPL)$  $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  $Microsoft(MSFT)$  , and semiconductors ($iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$  , $Broadcom(AVGO)$ 

V Reversal... Trump "Fires" Powell? Would You Trade This Drama?
US stock market experienced a sharp V-shaped rebound. Trump escalated the drama, saying, "I’ve already drafted the letter to fire Fed Chair Powell!" Following this statement, the market quickly broke down further. The chaos lasted for about 20 minutesβ€”until the TACO moment. Trump, speaking from the Oval Office, told reporters: "There are currently no plans to replace him." How long will Trump keep stirring up this kind of drama and looking for people to provoke? Fortunately, it always ends in a TACOβ€”does that mean there's always a dip-buying opportunity each time?
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